
72 Hours...moving NW still.
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Weatherfreak000 wrote:
72 Hours...moving NW still.
AJC3 wrote:The propensity for bashing the ECM is strange. Sure, it's had a few goofy runs (e.g. 12Z SAT), however, it was the first global model to suggest a stall with Fay at longer ranges, with a track back westward across Fl and the panhandle...and it was also the first of the globals to suggest a path cross Cuba with Ike. Very far from the absolute 'trash' that some are purporting it to be, and I suspect when the final model verification stats come out for these two storms, the ECM will not be at the bottom.
Portastorm wrote:More from the 12z GFS thru 48 hrs ... check out the ridge of high pressure in the northwestern Gulf, also. Interesting!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_500048048_l.shtml
BOPPA wrote:Portastorm wrote:More from the 12z GFS thru 48 hrs ... check out the ridge of high pressure in the northwestern Gulf, also. Interesting!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_500048048_l.shtml
Would that tend to push Ike more east??
Storm Contractor wrote:It is really sad to watch the downward spiral of human relations permeate what used to be a really great place to learn about the insider workings of hurricane forecasting. Do any of you people remember about 48 to 60 hours ago the arguments were southeast Florida or Northeast Bahamas/recurve? The track shifted nearly 400 miles south of there and may or may not shift 400 miles in another direction. THAT IS WHY WE ARE HERE! If the NHC could say FOR CERTAIN that the storm would be here in 5 days then there would be no reason to be here! It is all TBD (To Be Determined)!
I have watched newcomers to the board ask reasonably intelligent questions about "why this" or "how come that" and they get no response from anyone, then let someone post that they "know" a storm is going here or there and get 10 inflammatory comments about being rediculous! I really liked the board better before I registered! The "regulars were always patient and happy to teach! Thanks to all of the folks that post the important and intelligent things that they do! There are many who appreciate the knowledge and opinions form from that knowledge!
For those of you that "THINK" it would be cool to go through a Hurricane, take from someone that has helped many people through the LOOOONG frustrating process of getting a insurance company to actually pay for what they should to repair a hurricane damaged house, while they had to live with a Blue tarp and a leaking roof for over six months! IT IS NOT COOL! It is not a couple of days off of work! If you are unfortunate enough to have damage it can mean losing everything you have! It can mean living in a cramped apartment for 9 month while your home is rebuilt! It can mean losing everything and getting a check from FEMA for a whopping $29,000 for EVERYTHING YOU OWN! Hurricanes are not fun when you live through one!
To those that just seem to want to argue instead of discuss intelligently...... GO AWAY!
Sorry if this is in the wrong spot I just got aggravated!
AJC3 wrote:caneman wrote:AJC3 wrote:The propensity for bashing the ECM is strange. Sure, it's had a few goofy runs (e.g. 12Z SAT), however, it was the first global model to suggest a stall with Fay at longer ranges, with a track back westward across Fl and the panhandle...and it was also the first of the globals to suggest a path cross Cuba with Ike. Very far from the absolute 'trash' that some are purporting it to be, and I suspect when the final model verification stats come out for these two storms, the ECM will not be at the bottom.
Never said it would be at the bottom. However, the NHC stated a couple days ago that GFS and GFDL has proven most reliable this year.
No, but you did use the phrase "trash".
Storm Contractor wrote:It is really sad to watch the downward spiral of human relations permeate what used to be a really great place to learn about the insider workings of hurricane forecasting. Do any of you people remember about 48 to 60 hours ago the arguments were southeast Florida or Northeast Bahamas/recurve? The track shifted nearly 400 miles south of there and may or may not shift 400 miles in another direction. THAT IS WHY WE ARE HERE! If the NHC could say FOR CERTAIN that the storm would be here in 5 days then there would be no reason to be here! It is all TBD (To Be Determined)!
I have watched newcomers to the board ask reasonably intelligent questions about "why this" or "how come that" and they get no response from anyone, then let someone post that they "know" a storm is going here or there and get 10 inflammatory comments about being rediculous! I really liked the board better before I registered! The "regulars were always patient and happy to teach! Thanks to all of the folks that post the important and intelligent things that they do! There are many who appreciate the knowledge and opinions form from that knowledge!
For those of you that "THINK" it would be cool to go through a Hurricane, take from someone that has helped many people through the LOOOONG frustrating process of getting a insurance company to actually pay for what they should to repair a hurricane damaged house, while they had to live with a Blue tarp and a leaking roof for over six months! IT IS NOT COOL! It is not a couple of days off of work! If you are unfortunate enough to have damage it can mean losing everything you have! It can mean living in a cramped apartment for 9 month while your home is rebuilt! It can mean losing everything and getting a check from FEMA for a whopping $29,000 for EVERYTHING YOU OWN! Hurricanes are not fun when you live through one!
To those that just seem to want to argue instead of discuss intelligently...... GO AWAY!
Sorry if this is in the wrong spot I just got aggravated!
Stormcenter wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:114 Hours out..
Whoa way south.
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