ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

72 Hours...moving NW still.

[chris_fit]

72 Hours...moving NW still.

Trough is gone east....

[Stratosphere747]

GFS shows Ike moving W to WNW across most of Cuba. Would significantly weaken...

[jlauderdal]

The propensity for bashing the ECM is strange. Sure, it's had a few goofy runs (e.g. 12Z SAT), however, it was the first global model to suggest a stall with Fay at longer ranges, with a track back westward across Fl and the panhandle...and it was also the first of the globals to suggest a path cross Cuba with Ike. Very far from the absolute 'trash' that some are purporting it to be, and I suspect when the final model verification stats come out for these two storms, the ECM will not be at the bottom.

they only verify if it comes around fort lauderdale

[BOPPA]

More from the 12z GFS thru 48 hrs ... check out the ridge of high pressure in the northwestern Gulf, also. Interesting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_500048048_l.shtml

Would that tend to push Ike more east??

[Weatherfreak000]

84 hours out...




Still NW

[meteorologyman]

More from the 12z GFS thru 48 hrs ... check out the ridge of high pressure in the northwestern Gulf, also. Interesting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_500048048_l.shtml

Would that tend to push Ike more east??

I think that's what is also pushing the trough East/South East

[chris_fit]

Yea looks a little more north this run... Maybe a little slower too?

[sphelps8681]

It is really sad to watch the downward spiral of human relations permeate what used to be a really great place to learn about the insider workings of hurricane forecasting. Do any of you people remember about 48 to 60 hours ago the arguments were southeast Florida or Northeast Bahamas/recurve? The track shifted nearly 400 miles south of there and may or may not shift 400 miles in another direction. THAT IS WHY WE ARE HERE! If the NHC could say FOR CERTAIN that the storm would be here in 5 days then there would be no reason to be here! It is all TBD (To Be Determined)!

I have watched newcomers to the board ask reasonably intelligent questions about "why this" or "how come that" and they get no response from anyone, then let someone post that they "know" a storm is going here or there and get 10 inflammatory comments about being rediculous! I really liked the board better before I registered! The "regulars were always patient and happy to teach! Thanks to all of the folks that post the important and intelligent things that they do! There are many who appreciate the knowledge and opinions form from that knowledge!



For those of you that "THINK" it would be cool to go through a Hurricane, take from someone that has helped many people through the LOOOONG frustrating process of getting a insurance company to actually pay for what they should to repair a hurricane damaged house, while they had to live with a Blue tarp and a leaking roof for over six months! IT IS NOT COOL! It is not a couple of days off of work! If you are unfortunate enough to have damage it can mean losing everything you have! It can mean living in a cramped apartment for 9 month while your home is rebuilt! It can mean losing everything and getting a check from FEMA for a whopping $29,000 for EVERYTHING YOU OWN! Hurricanes are not fun when you live through one!

To those that just seem to want to argue instead of discuss intelligently...... GO AWAY!

Sorry if this is in the wrong spot I just got aggravated!

I agree. I was without power for 1 1/2 months from Rita. It takes time to plan to evac. You just don't load up your car and go. If your lucky enough to get notice in time to book somewhere to go before things are all booked than your lucky. I am already thinking of booking somewhere now. When I tried w/Gustav everything was booked past Dallas.

[caneman]

The propensity for bashing the ECM is strange. Sure, it's had a few goofy runs (e.g. 12Z SAT), however, it was the first global model to suggest a stall with Fay at longer ranges, with a track back westward across Fl and the panhandle...and it was also the first of the globals to suggest a path cross Cuba with Ike. Very far from the absolute 'trash' that some are purporting it to be, and I suspect when the final model verification stats come out for these two storms, the ECM will not be at the bottom.

Never said it would be at the bottom. However, the NHC stated a couple days ago that GFS and GFDL has proven most reliable this year.

No, but you did use the phrase "trash".

If you can find where I used this term please feel free to copy and paste becasue I don't believe I did. Inaccuarte, not as good this year perhaps. And If I did I will apologize.

[TTheriot1975]

actually the 84 hour moves a WNW...according to what I see on the loop

[Evil Jeremy]

Most of the models show Ike missing the through, but I would not rule out the possibility that Ike does latch on to it, or at lease feel the affects of the through. However, the models do seem to be on a northward trend this morning.

[Dean4Storms]

caneman wrote:
And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

You did use the word "trash" Caneman.

[TTheriot1975]

actually the 84 hour moves a WNW...according to what I see on the loop

[Weatherfreak000]

114 Hours out..

[Stormcenter]

114 Hours out..

Whoa way south.

[southerngreen]

It is really sad to watch the downward spiral of human relations permeate what used to be a really great place to learn about the insider workings of hurricane forecasting. Do any of you people remember about 48 to 60 hours ago the arguments were southeast Florida or Northeast Bahamas/recurve? The track shifted nearly 400 miles south of there and may or may not shift 400 miles in another direction. THAT IS WHY WE ARE HERE! If the NHC could say FOR CERTAIN that the storm would be here in 5 days then there would be no reason to be here! It is all TBD (To Be Determined)!

I have watched newcomers to the board ask reasonably intelligent questions about "why this" or "how come that" and they get no response from anyone, then let someone post that they "know" a storm is going here or there and get 10 inflammatory comments about being rediculous! I really liked the board better before I registered! The "regulars were always patient and happy to teach! Thanks to all of the folks that post the important and intelligent things that they do! There are many who appreciate the knowledge and opinions form from that knowledge!

For those of you that "THINK" it would be cool to go through a Hurricane, take from someone that has helped many people through the LOOOONG frustrating process of getting a insurance company to actually pay for what they should to repair a hurricane damaged house, while they had to live with a Blue tarp and a leaking roof for over six months! IT IS NOT COOL! It is not a couple of days off of work! If you are unfortunate enough to have damage it can mean losing everything you have! It can mean living in a cramped apartment for 9 month while your home is rebuilt! It can mean losing everything and getting a check from FEMA for a whopping $29,000 for EVERYTHING YOU OWN! Hurricanes are not fun when you live through one!

To those that just seem to want to argue instead of discuss intelligently...... GO AWAY!

Sorry if this is in the wrong spot I just got aggravated!

Couldn't have said it better myself! i quit visiting s2k because of that for quite a while. i can't be online all the time so i occasionally ask a question & it doesn't get an intelligent answer unless one of the mets is up at some ungodly hour.

I wanted to ask "what happened to the ridge or flow or trough or front or whatever it was that was supposed to move Ike NE again when it enter the straits or gulf?' it seems to have disappeared. (not that i'm complaining - just don't want to be caught blindsided)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z GFS appears to be Texas bound.

[chris_fit]

114 Hours out..

Whoa way south.

Yea, a nice bend to the W in the middle of the Gulf

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like another trough approaching TX coast.