ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Air Force Met]

still 5+ days from Landfall. Models will move again, left, right, fast, slow, who knows.

Yep...I figure I've got about two more days of agonizing before we get a good clue.

[attallaman]

As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?

[dwg71]

As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?

Who knows, this is one time that looking at day four and five of NHC track is more for entertainment purposes only.

[Noah]

Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway? Is is for planning purposes? Seems its never right anyhow and nothing against them. I usually feel more confident at the 48 NHC track.

[rtd2]

Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway? Is is for planning purposes? Seems its never right anyhow and nothing against them. I usually feel more confident at the 48 NHC track.

its a evolving process. years ago we questioned the 3 day track which is very accurate now days.

[Steve]

>>IMO I think this is a sign that the High is stronger then what we thought. Ike was suppose to be moving WNW last night.

Not sure. It rained in the Bayou yesterday afternoon and there were clouds building up down there this morning (assuming I'm around 90.4/90.5). Blue skies here in the city today though.

>>Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway?

They probably don't have to do anything. However, since we pay for the product, I appreciate the effort they put into it.

AF - I'm not sure there are 2 more days of agonizing in a general sense. I mean the consensus appears to already be there as the models are pretty tightly clustered. I'm not sure what happened this past off-season with tweaks to the models, and I wouldn't understand most of that high-end math even if I read about it, but if there's one thing that has struck me about forecast models in 2008 is that they've been better in an overall general sense at agreeing with one another than I've ever seen.

Steve

[ROCK]

>>IMO I think this is a sign that the High is stronger then what we thought. Ike was suppose to be moving WNW last night.

Not sure. It rained in the Bayou yesterday afternoon and there were clouds building up down there this morning (assuming I'm around 90.4/90.5). Blue skies here in the city today though.

>>Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway?

They probably don't have to do anything. However, since we pay for the product, I appreciate the effort they put into it.

AF - I'm not sure there are 2 more days of agonizing in a general sense. I mean the consensus appears to already be there as the models are pretty tightly clustered. I'm not sure what happened this past off-season with tweaks to the models, and I wouldn't understand most of that high-end math even if I read about it, but if there's one thing that has struck me about forecast models in 2008 is that they've been better in an overall general sense at agreeing with one another than I've ever seen.

Steve

that consensus is still pretty wide Steve....

[BocaGirl]

As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?

Who knows, this is one time that looking at day four and five of NHC track is more for entertainment purposes only.

If you can call it "entertainment"!!!! Here in South Florida, we learn that lesson over and over again. The 4 and 5 day tracks are strictly fiction. Sometimes fictional stories come true...other times they remain just that...stories.

Maybe in seasons to come the 4 and 5 day tracks will get better but for now they remain suspect.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[N2Storms]

[quote="Air Force Met"][quote="HouTXmetro"]So far the "trend" is Texas Friend. However, we are still under the gun according to the NHC.

I will also note that Ike it taking a more Southern route and may be in the NW Carribean alot earlier than we expected.[/quote]

Looking at the early 12z's...discounting the garbage...the trend is certainly not Texas' friend. Everything but the garbage pointed at TX.[/quote]


Just a quick observation as far as "trends" are concerned...at what point do we say with certainty that a particular "trend" is correct...it seems as though since last Thursday we have had several "trends"...first. all the models pointed to Floyd like track recurving at or around the FL Peninsula...then last Friday night into Sat. morning all the models were trending towards the Central - NE GOMEX...now, we're still 4-5 days out and the trend is clearly west but now we see there may be some synoptic changes and maybe some changes in Ike's path through the Carib...I think it is far too early to call this one with any certainty...

[Steve]

>>that consensus is still pretty wide Steve....

Was looking at the SFWMD post someone had put up there. This link:

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL

For 5 days, that's pretty amazing IMHO. You may disagree, but it's quite a bit different than recurve, North Carolina, or Caribbean Sea stuff we've seen in the past. JMO of course.

Steve

[ROCK]

>>that consensus is still pretty wide Steve....

Was looking at the SFWMD post someone had put up there. This link:

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL

For 5 days, that's pretty amazing IMHO. You may disagree, but it's quite a bit different than recurve, North Carolina, or Caribbean Sea stuff we've seen in the past. JMO of course.

Steve

No I agree with you....they all point to a specific area. Just so happens the width of the consensus still encompasses a fairly large amount of RE....


besides, I was just giving you the business,,,,

[Stratosphere747]

Everything is still pointing to the upper Texas coast and SW Louisiana. The continuing westward movement could of course have implications on both track and intensity.

[HouTXmetro]

Everything is still pointing to the upper Texas coast and SW Louisiana. The continuing westward movement could of course have implications on both track and intensity.

Your pictures are not showing up... Ike still moving south of the guidance.

[karenfromheaven]

Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway? Is is for planning purposes? Seems its never right anyhow and nothing against them. I usually feel more confident at the 48 NHC track.

My take on it is that the 5-day track allows for an error cone that extends out for 5 days. I don't have pro insight into governmental thinking, but I imagine that individual EOCs want as much lead time as practical to have something to drive their hurricane plans. This year for the first time, IKE has prodded me into creating a written hurricane plan for myself, and I chose to key the individual action items NOT to the track, but to the Hurricane Wind Speed Probability graphic. What a relief not to have to guess which model, including the NHC, will be the correct one! I finally get (smacks her forehead) why the NHC track splits the difference between model clusters on either side (when that happens). It forces the error cone and probability calculations to encompass both branches so that plans keyed off them will become activated.

[flounder_gig]

As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?

in the NHC 5 day cone. So is Mexico

[Senobia]

in the NHC 5 day cone. So is Mexico

Not sure which NHC you're referring to, but the NHC's inclusion of Mexico in the cone consists of Brownsville/Matamoros on the very southern far edge of it...and that's it.

[3ABirdMan]

>>that consensus is still pretty wide Steve....

Was looking at the SFWMD post someone had put up there. This link:

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL

For 5 days, that's pretty amazing IMHO. You may disagree, but it's quite a bit different than recurve, North Carolina, or Caribbean Sea stuff we've seen in the past. JMO of course.

Steve

Which of these models (in link) is the GFS? and if it IS one of these, why does it have a different name?

[karenfromheaven]

Which of these models (in link) is the GFS? and if it IS one of these, why does it have a different name?

Sometimes the GFS is referred to by its old name, AVN (Aviation Model).

[3ABirdMan]

Thanks. That's what I thought, but I wanted to be sure.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ah well crap. Woke up and they are still pointed at me...