dwg71 wrote:still 5+ days from Landfall. Models will move again, left, right, fast, slow, who knows.
Yep...I figure I've got about two more days of agonizing before we get a good clue.
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dwg71 wrote:still 5+ days from Landfall. Models will move again, left, right, fast, slow, who knows.
attallaman wrote:As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?
Noah wrote:Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway? Is is for planning purposes? Seems its never right anyhow and nothing against them. I usually feel more confident at the 48 NHC track.
Steve wrote:>>IMO I think this is a sign that the High is stronger then what we thought. Ike was suppose to be moving WNW last night.
Not sure. It rained in the Bayou yesterday afternoon and there were clouds building up down there this morning (assuming I'm around 90.4/90.5). Blue skies here in the city today though.
>>Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway?
They probably don't have to do anything. However, since we pay for the product, I appreciate the effort they put into it.
AF - I'm not sure there are 2 more days of agonizing in a general sense. I mean the consensus appears to already be there as the models are pretty tightly clustered. I'm not sure what happened this past off-season with tweaks to the models, and I wouldn't understand most of that high-end math even if I read about it, but if there's one thing that has struck me about forecast models in 2008 is that they've been better in an overall general sense at agreeing with one another than I've ever seen.
Steve
dwg71 wrote:attallaman wrote:As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?
Who knows, this is one time that looking at day four and five of NHC track is more for entertainment purposes only.
Steve wrote:>>that consensus is still pretty wide Steve....
Was looking at the SFWMD post someone had put up there. This link:
http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL
For 5 days, that's pretty amazing IMHO. You may disagree, but it's quite a bit different than recurve, North Carolina, or Caribbean Sea stuff we've seen in the past. JMO of course.
Steve
Stratosphere747 wrote:Everything is still pointing to the upper Texas coast and SW Louisiana. The continuing westward movement could of course have implications on both track and intensity.
Noah wrote:Why does NHC have to do a 5 day track anyway? Is is for planning purposes? Seems its never right anyhow and nothing against them. I usually feel more confident at the 48 NHC track.
attallaman wrote:As of this morning does a threat to the MS Gulf Coast still exist or is Ike looking more and more like a TX or TX/WLA storm?
flounder_gig wrote:
in the NHC 5 day cone. So is Mexico
Steve wrote:>>that consensus is still pretty wide Steve....
Was looking at the SFWMD post someone had put up there. This link:
http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL
For 5 days, that's pretty amazing IMHO. You may disagree, but it's quite a bit different than recurve, North Carolina, or Caribbean Sea stuff we've seen in the past. JMO of course.
Steve
3ABirdMan wrote:Which of these models (in link) is the GFS? and if it IS one of these, why does it have a different name?
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