ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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teal61
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2801 Postby teal61 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:05 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Ah well crap. Woke up and they are still pointed at me... :(



Yep, time to think about doing some initial preps i think. I guess i am gona pick up some stuff this afternoon. If its the same in the morn it's gonna get stupid in SE Texas
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2802 Postby Texashawk » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:06 am

teal61 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Ah well crap. Woke up and they are still pointed at me... :(



Yep, time to think about doing some initial preps i think. I guess i am gona pick up some stuff this afternoon. If its the same in the morn it's gonna get stupid in SE Texas


No no, Texans are the model of calm and rationality. I have complete faith in my fellow SETX-ers to do the right thing here.

:roll:
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Re: Re:

#2803 Postby Clint_TX » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:07 am

Air Force Met wrote:
dwg71 wrote:still 5+ days from Landfall. Models will move again, left, right, fast, slow, who knows.


Yep...I figure I've got about two more days of agonizing before we get a good clue.


Image

It's all part of the plan....

These models are trying to find order in all the chaos
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2804 Postby TampaFl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:08 am

11:00am position - still moving wes & now moving into the Carribbean Sea.

Image
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#2805 Postby smw1981 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:13 am

Here's the thing...yesterday (less than 24 hours ago), the models had Ike going through Cuba kind of on the northern side. Ike did not do that. It is really that simple. And if the models can't predict where Ike is going in 12 hours, is it really smart (or just plain stupid) to think that the models know where Ike is going in 120-144 hours?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2806 Postby karenfromheaven » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:14 am

Has anyone been following the discussions and graphics from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)? Here is this morning's discussion:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
838 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008 - 12Z MON SEP 15 2008

UPDATED PRELIMS LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION THRU DAY 5
SAT AND INCORPORATE THE ECMWF MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7. DIVING SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SEWD THRU MT WED IS CARRIED AS A DEEPER STRONGER SLOWER
SHORTWAVE BY 00Z GFS REACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES SAT. THIS 00Z
RUN IS AN OUTLIER AMONGST ALL OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/NOGAPS/06Z GFS/ENSEMBLE MEANS OF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN AS THAT ALL THESE OTHER MODELS DROP ENERGY SWD FROM THE
BASE OF THIS TROF INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REACHING THE PLAINS
SUN. NRN PORTION OF THE TROF EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES IS THUS
MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS TAKING THE SHORTWAVE OFF THE NE COAST
SAT. FOLLOWING MORE AMPLIFIED DIGGING SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND BETTER AGREED
UPON ON AMPLITIUDE AND TIMING THAN THE PREDECESSOR BUT SOME
PHASING PROBLEMS EXIST AS GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS/UKMET/06Z GFS
PHASE THIS WITH THE LEFT BEHIND MORE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREFERENCE DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TO BLEND
IN THE ECMWF ENS MEAN PHASED SOLUTION WITH THE SEPERATED ECMWF FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7 SUN/MON.

HOW AND WHEN HURCN IKE IS PICKED UP BY THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
APPEARS TO BE TOTALLY INDEPENDENT ON ITS TRACK AND TIMING WHICH IS
MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAT YESTERDAY. AN OVERALL TREND TOWARDS THE
RIGHT BY HURCN MODELS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT SOME LEAVING IT
COMPLETELY BEHIND TO DRIFT IN THE NRN GULF. DAYS 6 AND 7 ARE AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM DAY 5 TPC FCST NEAR 29N/93W. IF THIS POSITION
IS CORRECT OUR PREFERENCE IN THE MID LATITUDE FLOW OF ECMWF/ECMWF
MEAN WOULD ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE PICKED UP AND BEGIN
TO EXIT NEWD INTO NRN LA AND UP THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN AND
EXTRATROPICAL RUNNING UP THE OH VALLEY MON. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

I'm afraid the jargon is a little thick for me, but am I correct in saying they are constructing a solution consisting of the ECMWF alone blended with an ensemble of ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS? Here is their graphic:

Image

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/premedr.shtml#preliminary
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2807 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:14 am

I work in the media...I'll either stay or be the last to leave, then the first back to report.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2808 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:19 am

GFDL uncanny in south of Cuba track.

To me this says watch GFDL for final track in two days or so. Which means NHC should be fairly accurate (Again).
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#2809 Postby dwg71 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:21 am

HPC sees a turn towards the north at end of track. I still think SW to Central LA will be end game, just my opinion.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2810 Postby Sabanic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:24 am

Sanibel wrote:GFDL uncanny in south of Cuba track.

To me this says watch GFDL for final track in two days or so. Which means NHC should be fairly accurate (Again).


Just this morning the NHC at 5AM said they were not going with the GFDL . .

THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD
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Re:

#2811 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:26 am

dwg71 wrote:HPC sees a turn towards the north at end of track. I still think SW to Central LA will be end game, just my opinion.



you would say that if Ike was 20 miles offshore from galveston and the eye was going to move over Pasadena..... :lol:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2812 Postby mattpetre » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:31 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I won't do this too often, but I'm actually surprised at how close my 10+ day path is matching the actual path at this point. My map also includes one NHC cone from a few days ago. I'm still hoping that my path can't actually come to fruition, but synoptics seem to be more and more in favor of something close. Ugh, another very long week of waiting and seeing.

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2813 Postby SMNederlandTX » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:35 am

It looks to me if it stays on it's current track it will make landfall somewhere near Galveston, maybe? If that is the case....SETX would be on the east side of the storm, which is the worst side of the storm to be on, right? I asked something similar before, I don't think anyone replied though....sorry if I missed it.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2814 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:37 am

Yes :uarrow:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2815 Postby SMNederlandTX » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:38 am

Well, if that was the actual path it would keep us out of harm's way.

mattpetre wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I won't do this too often, but I'm actually surprised at how close my 10+ day path is matching the actual path at this point. My map also includes one NHC cone from a few days ago. I'm still hoping that my path can't actually come to fruition, but synoptics seem to be more and more in favor of something close. Ugh, another very long week of waiting and seeing.

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2816 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:39 am

mattpetre wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I won't do this too often, but I'm actually surprised at how close my 10+ day path is matching the actual path at this point. My map also includes one NHC cone from a few days ago. I'm still hoping that my path can't actually come to fruition, but synoptics seem to be more and more in favor of something close. Ugh, another very long week of waiting and seeing.



That track has been almost dead on :eek:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2817 Postby SMNederlandTX » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:40 am

I hope this thing just dies going over Cuba....I really do not want to go through another evacuation again so soon........and I know I am not the only one who feels this way.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2818 Postby Sabanic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:40 am

SMNederlandTX wrote:It looks to me if it stays on it's current track it will make landfall somewhere near Galveston, maybe? If that is the case....SETX would be on the east side of the storm, which is the worst side of the storm to be on, right? I asked something similar before, I don't think anyone replied though....sorry if I missed it.


It may, but 6 days and on the exact same path would be crazy
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2819 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:41 am

SMNederlandTX wrote:It looks to me if it stays on it's current track it will make landfall somewhere near Galveston, maybe? If that is the case....SETX would be on the east side of the storm, which is the worst side of the storm to be on, right? I asked something similar before, I don't think anyone replied though....sorry if I missed it.


Having just been on the north east side of Gustav, yes, absolutely the worst side although there are always exceptions.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2820 Postby SMNederlandTX » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:44 am

It's funny ( not in a haha kind of way ) that we just moved to this area like 3 years ago. I am from Ohio and my husband is originally from this area. Before we moved down here he would always tell me there aren't many storms that come this way....he said he only had to evacuate 1 time in his whole life while he lived here. Now that we live here we have had Rita, Humberto, Eduoard ( didn't really do much here though, but close enough to mention, i guess ) Gustav ( again, nothing, but we still had to evacuate ) and now maybe Ike. I am really rethinking living down here....I like it though, the town we live in, it is a nice small town and everyone is friendly.....don't see much of that where I come from. Anyways...sorry for rambling on... :oops:
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