ATL: IKE Discussion

[N2Storms]

[quote="attallaman"]So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?[/quote]


I think so...the forecast is pretty straight forward

[AJC3]

Anybody have a Cuban radar for core progress offshore?

Just uploaded a 4-hour time lapse of the Pico San Juan (Cienfuegos) radar ending at 215 PM...

[amanda]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

Interesting observation.
I'm here. Just being quiet.

me too.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

63kts is the highest so far...

and on a side note just a little rant. Here I am trying to figure out where the heck I am going to be shipping out to and a bunch of sites and tools that use to track Hurricanes aren't even working! This is really making me mad! http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov has been extremely spotty as far as working and I can't get any of the loops to load! My Google Earth recon plugin isn't updating. The Cuban radar is EXTREMELY Slow right now. Lets just say I am not a very happy camper right now!

[HURAKAN]

The EWRC is not finished and the system traveled over land without finishing it which may have cause it to weaken that much.

[jinftl]

The posts are people's opinions...thoughts...guesses.....stick with the official NHC forecast...clearly no one in the gulf is in the clear.

So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?

[PTrackerLA]

MS not in the clear yet, follow the cone people:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... y#contents

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the outer eyewall is 60 miles out from the center, no doubt will be very chunky system when it reaches the gulf, will have a hard time wrpaping that one round, don't expect very quick strengthening with an eye that large.

[Storm Contractor]

One of the things I picked up on right away after coming to this board is that almost everyone on here is a "wonderful forecaster" in some form or fashion...some people are wishing storms away from them and others are wishing stoms towards them...it is very easy to tell who falls into which category...personally, I don't find any wrong in either of them, however, I have never understood why anyone would wish a storm in their direction but to each his own I suppose...

I really think the people that want to "wish" hurricanes their way have never actually gone through the worst a hurricane has to offer. I have seen many times over the devastation that storms cause on property but more importantly the spirit of the people they have done such great harm to. I can not begin to explain the frustration and sympathy I feel when dealing with people after such a traumatic event. The sense of loss is very near that of a death of a loved one. The great thing about my job is that I get to help them rebuild, not just their home but their smiles! Please remeber that while we banter back and forth about the where and the why of tracking that their are PEOPLE and PETS and LIVES involved! While you may see pictures, if you have never stood on an overpass and staired out at 1000's of homes that once had families just like yours living in them, then thought about what those families especially the children must be feeling and felt the feeling of absolute erie emptiness that overcomes you, you can NEVER really understand what a truly tragic event a hurricane is. I will NEVER forget how terrible I felt when I first stood on a street in MS after Katrina. When I called my wifw that night she asked is it as bad as it looks? My response was "you can't even imagine!" You could have the best HD TV in the world but until you are surrounded in every direction by damage that will take decades to erase, you rally can't imagine! While I have a business model that involves post storm services I STILL wish every storm would go away without ever harming anyone!

[Lowpressure]

The EWRC is not finished and the system traveled over land without finishing it which may have cause it to weaken that much.

Maybe, but the thing to note here is it still has concentric eyewalls and an almost classic structure after crossing Cuba. This could get much stronger once clear of land intervention.

[wxman57]

RECON finding a minimal cat 1 atm.

There'd probably be cat-1 winds over the northern quadrant as well which is a little out of reach of recon...however that sort of profile is what you'd expect with a disrupted core, its just lacking any decent deep convection at the moment.

However still in a better shape then what it'd be if Ike was overland right now.

Recon has flown through the northern side, that's where they found the 63kt FL winds.

[clfenwi]

I guess recon has a mission that's limited. They can not fly over Cuba including the Cuban islands.

Lots of the system is still over Cuba. So no data from that part.

Given where they were flying from, a northwest-southeast pass was the natural thing to do.

I would expect them to hang a right, go around the southern perimeter of the storm and set-up a southwestnortheast pass so that the northeast quadrant data is relatively new and fresh come 5 PM.

As far as overflight of Cuba goes, I seem to remember seeing them overflying during Gustav. We shall see.

On another topic, concentric eyewalls 15 and 60 nautical miles in diamater!

[fci]

So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?

You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Personally, until a storm has passed my area, I continue to keep tabs on it.
For instance; until Ike went south of Cuba, I was very attentive.

When he goes into the GOM, I will continue to watch just to make sure he does not take right turn.
When he is past my Latitude and Longitude and heading away, I feel the "all clear".

Maybe that is just me........

[flounder_gig]

67 flight level
90% = 60kts
TS Ike?

[Steve]

>>You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Exactly. Watch the cone of uncertainty. If you're out of it and a setup doesn't appear to put you back in it, take a more casual but cautious approach. If you are, then pay attention to the professionals and the NHC. They get paid to do that. No knock on attallaman because there are at least 100 posts in this thread of people asking if they are or aren't in the clear. But that's a question that no one really can answer with any certainty. FWIW, the mountain west and Alaska/Hawaii are in the clear for sure.

Steve

[hial2]

So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?

I think so...the forecast is pretty straight forward

Don't let your guard down!..Listen to your local people and the NHC..Though there are some great pros here,most of us are amateurs who have very limited knowledge about the final destination of this potentially disastrous hurricane..NOTHING is set in stone.

[baitism]

The center of the storm is about to put alot more distance away from itself and the coast. Should be interesting to watch...

[clfenwi]

63kts is the highest so far...

and on a side note just a little rant. Here I am trying to figure out where the heck I am going to be shipping out to and a bunch of sites and tools that use to track Hurricanes aren't even working! This is really making me mad! http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov has been extremely spotty as far as working and I can't get any of the loops to load! My Google Earth recon plugin isn't updating. The Cuban radar is EXTREMELY Slow right now. Lets just say I am not a very happy camper right now!

Well, to be fair to the Cubans, they are operating under slightly difficult conditions.

As far as the loops go... if you wobble watchers would stop hitting refresh every five minutes. :P

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, there is the possibility of stronger winds over Cuba since the northern quadrant of the storm is still over land.

[jinftl]

I heard one of the tv mets here on a special report on south florida storms say something on the order of

First half of hurricane season, he breathes easier when a storm gets north and west of our longitude. Second part of the season he feels better when they are north and east of our longiture.

makes sense since alot of our late season risks approach from the southwest a la wilma. But a rule of thumb is a rule of thumb....nuff said

So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?

You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Personally, until a storm has passed my area, I continue to keep tabs on it.
For instance; until Ike went south of Cuba, I was very attentive.

When he goes into the GOM, I will continue to watch just to make sure he does not take right turn.
When he is past my Latitude and Longitude and heading away, I feel the "all clear".

Maybe that is just me........