ATL: IKE Discussion

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N2Storms
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5561 Postby N2Storms » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

[quote="attallaman"]So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?[/quote]


I think so...the forecast is pretty straight forward
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5562 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

Sanibel wrote:Anybody have a Cuban radar for core progress offshore?



Just uploaded a 4-hour time lapse of the Pico San Juan (Cienfuegos) radar ending at 215 PM...

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5563 Postby amanda » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

bikerbabe wrote:
gatorcane wrote:what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...


Interesting observation.
I'm here. Just being quiet.


me too.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5564 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

63kts is the highest so far...

and on a side note just a little rant. Here I am trying to figure out where the heck I am going to be shipping out to and a bunch of sites and tools that use to track Hurricanes aren't even working! This is really making me mad! http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov has been extremely spotty as far as working and I can't get any of the loops to load! My Google Earth recon plugin isn't updating. The Cuban radar is EXTREMELY Slow right now. Lets just say I am not a very happy camper right now!
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#5565 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

The EWRC is not finished and the system traveled over land without finishing it which may have cause it to weaken that much.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5566 Postby jinftl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

The posts are people's opinions...thoughts...guesses.....stick with the official NHC forecast...clearly no one in the gulf is in the clear.

attallaman wrote:So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5567 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:29 pm

MS not in the clear yet, follow the cone people:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... y#contents
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#5568 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:29 pm

The other thing to note is the outer eyewall is 60 miles out from the center, no doubt will be very chunky system when it reaches the gulf, will have a hard time wrpaping that one round, don't expect very quick strengthening with an eye that large.
Last edited by KWT on Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5569 Postby Storm Contractor » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:30 pm

N2Storms wrote:One of the things I picked up on right away after coming to this board is that almost everyone on here is a "wonderful forecaster" in some form or fashion...some people are wishing storms away from them and others are wishing stoms towards them...it is very easy to tell who falls into which category...personally, I don't find any wrong in either of them, however, I have never understood why anyone would wish a storm in their direction but to each his own I suppose...


I really think the people that want to "wish" hurricanes their way have never actually gone through the worst a hurricane has to offer. I have seen many times over the devastation that storms cause on property but more importantly the spirit of the people they have done such great harm to. I can not begin to explain the frustration and sympathy I feel when dealing with people after such a traumatic event. The sense of loss is very near that of a death of a loved one. The great thing about my job is that I get to help them rebuild, not just their home but their smiles! Please remeber that while we banter back and forth about the where and the why of tracking that their are PEOPLE and PETS and LIVES involved! While you may see pictures, if you have never stood on an overpass and staired out at 1000's of homes that once had families just like yours living in them, then thought about what those families especially the children must be feeling and felt the feeling of absolute erie emptiness that overcomes you, you can NEVER really understand what a truly tragic event a hurricane is. I will NEVER forget how terrible I felt when I first stood on a street in MS after Katrina. When I called my wifw that night she asked is it as bad as it looks? My response was "you can't even imagine!" You could have the best HD TV in the world but until you are surrounded in every direction by damage that will take decades to erase, you rally can't imagine! While I have a business model that involves post storm services I STILL wish every storm would go away without ever harming anyone!
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Re:

#5570 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:31 pm

HURAKAN wrote:The EWRC is not finished and the system traveled over land without finishing it which may have cause it to weaken that much.

Maybe, but the thing to note here is it still has concentric eyewalls and an almost classic structure after crossing Cuba. This could get much stronger once clear of land intervention.
Last edited by Lowpressure on Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#5571 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:31 pm

KWT wrote:
dwg71 wrote:RECON finding a minimal cat 1 atm.


There'd probably be cat-1 winds over the northern quadrant as well which is a little out of reach of recon...however that sort of profile is what you'd expect with a disrupted core, its just lacking any decent deep convection at the moment.

However still in a better shape then what it'd be if Ike was overland right now.


Recon has flown through the northern side, that's where they found the 63kt FL winds.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5572 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:31 pm

expat2carib wrote:I guess recon has a mission that's limited. They can not fly over Cuba including the Cuban islands.

Lots of the system is still over Cuba. So no data from that part.


Given where they were flying from, a northwest-southeast pass was the natural thing to do.

I would expect them to hang a right, go around the southern perimeter of the storm and set-up a southwestnortheast pass so that the northeast quadrant data is relatively new and fresh come 5 PM.

As far as overflight of Cuba goes, I seem to remember seeing them overflying during Gustav. We shall see.

On another topic, concentric eyewalls 15 and 60 nautical miles in diamater!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5573 Postby fci » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:32 pm

attallaman wrote:So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?


You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Personally, until a storm has passed my area, I continue to keep tabs on it.
For instance; until Ike went south of Cuba, I was very attentive.

When he goes into the GOM, I will continue to watch just to make sure he does not take right turn.
When he is past my Latitude and Longitude and heading away, I feel the "all clear".

Maybe that is just me........
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Re: ATL IKE: Recon Discussion

#5574 Postby flounder_gig » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:34 pm

67 flight level
90% = 60kts
TS Ike?
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#5575 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:35 pm

>>You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Exactly. Watch the cone of uncertainty. If you're out of it and a setup doesn't appear to put you back in it, take a more casual but cautious approach. If you are, then pay attention to the professionals and the NHC. They get paid to do that. No knock on attallaman because there are at least 100 posts in this thread of people asking if they are or aren't in the clear. But that's a question that no one really can answer with any certainty. FWIW, the mountain west and Alaska/Hawaii are in the clear for sure.

Steve
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5576 Postby hial2 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:36 pm

N2Storms wrote:
attallaman wrote:So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?



I think so...the forecast is pretty straight forward


Don't let your guard down!..Listen to your local people and the NHC..Though there are some great pros here,most of us are amateurs who have very limited knowledge about the final destination of this potentially disastrous hurricane..NOTHING is set in stone.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5577 Postby baitism » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:37 pm

The center of the storm is about to put alot more distance away from itself and the coast. Should be interesting to watch...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5578 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:38 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:63kts is the highest so far...

and on a side note just a little rant. Here I am trying to figure out where the heck I am going to be shipping out to and a bunch of sites and tools that use to track Hurricanes aren't even working! This is really making me mad! http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov has been extremely spotty as far as working and I can't get any of the loops to load! My Google Earth recon plugin isn't updating. The Cuban radar is EXTREMELY Slow right now. Lets just say I am not a very happy camper right now!


Well, to be fair to the Cubans, they are operating under slightly difficult conditions.

As far as the loops go... if you wobble watchers would stop hitting refresh every five minutes. :P
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#5579 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:38 pm

wxman57, there is the possibility of stronger winds over Cuba since the northern quadrant of the storm is still over land.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5580 Postby jinftl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:38 pm

I heard one of the tv mets here on a special report on south florida storms say something on the order of

First half of hurricane season, he breathes easier when a storm gets north and west of our longitude. Second part of the season he feels better when they are north and east of our longiture.

makes sense since alot of our late season risks approach from the southwest a la wilma. But a rule of thumb is a rule of thumb....nuff said


fci wrote:
attallaman wrote:So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?


You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Personally, until a storm has passed my area, I continue to keep tabs on it.
For instance; until Ike went south of Cuba, I was very attentive.

When he goes into the GOM, I will continue to watch just to make sure he does not take right turn.
When he is past my Latitude and Longitude and heading away, I feel the "all clear".

Maybe that is just me........
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