ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS=GALVESTON

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[mattpetre]

I feel for anyone about to be hit even by TS winds (esp. since Key West is so low in elevation and any surge could be very bad for you guys!)

BTW, looks liket the terrain of Cuba is going to put some of it's highest mountains in the way of the northern eyewall soon. Could hurt the storm some more or IMO could get it wrapping a little tighter for a while. Wait a few hours and see.

[ROCK]

EURO out to 72 hrs....central GOM....

[dwg71]

West shift continues...

[Canelaw99]

It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!

huh? Key west is under tropical storm warnings.....did the track shift?

And a hurricane watch I think dog's main point was that the Keys are at more risk in the immediate future than TX/LA/Gulf Coast in a few days

Human nature is to become concerned about your area, but we can't forget those dealing with it currently and in the short term....that would be Cuba then the lower Keys...

[vaffie]

EURO comes due north into Galveston.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO...Heads to corpus then due north....weird.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090812!!/

[dwg71]

NHC is now is on the northern sid of the model guidence.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO=South of Galveston

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090812!!/

[ktulu909]

It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!

I mean this in the nicest way possible,I really do,but I dont think anyone here would agree that Key West is "right in the path".While key west is defiantly going to experience some effects from the storm,its almost the equivalent of stating that Mobile,AL was "right in the path" of Gustav.

[dwg71]

New EURO...Heads to corpus then due north....weird.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090812!!/

Hard to follow, I would think it takes it inland around Corpus and then swings it back NE once inland.

[dwg71]

12z EURO= South of Galveston

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090812!!/

I dont see that, it down by corpus and then 24 hours later its in East Texas. I guess they dont do model plots, hour by hour.

[cycloneye]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas

[KWT]

On another note look how deep ECM makes Ike, thats a beast of a hurricane there.

[ROCK]

12z EURO= South of Galveston

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090812!!/

I dont see that, it down by corpus and then 24 hours later its in East Texas. I guess they dont do model plots, hour by hour.

actually I am looking at a better resolution than you DWG....Luis is not that far off....north of CC for sure...maybe other side of Matagorda. Still not good for West end of Galveston...

[dwg71]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas

Corrections needed. GFS - South Texas Corpus
UKMET - South Texas Corpus

[dogblues64]

To be honest.. all the mapping doesn't mean a whole lot.. we are feeling almost the winds already of Gustav.. put that in your models.. LOL! just kidding guys.. But, really, we feel like a nother part of the world and you guys are confirming it!

[cycloneye]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=Corpus Christi

Corrected.

[RBDnhm]

I am having a difficult time correlating models with locations, but I think the references to SE Texas may need to be to S. Texas. Traditionally (at least in Texas) Southeast Texas is Houston to Texas/Louisiana border. South Texas is sort of Houston and south.

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas

[jinftl]

Do you have a summary like this for the prior run or 2 of these models...i think the summary you have is awesome...if we could see this for a few runs would get a clear sense of trend too...which may help ease the minds of those who are in any one run's track

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas