ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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I feel for anyone about to be hit even by TS winds (esp. since Key West is so low in elevation and any surge could be very bad for you guys!)
BTW, looks liket the terrain of Cuba is going to put some of it's highest mountains in the way of the northern eyewall soon. Could hurt the storm some more or IMO could get it wrapping a little tighter for a while. Wait a few hours and see.
BTW, looks liket the terrain of Cuba is going to put some of it's highest mountains in the way of the northern eyewall soon. Could hurt the storm some more or IMO could get it wrapping a little tighter for a while. Wait a few hours and see.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

West shift continues...
Last edited by dwg71 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Canelaw99
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:dogblues64 wrote:It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!
huh? Key west is under tropical storm warnings.....did the track shift?
And a hurricane watch


Human nature is to become concerned about your area, but we can't forget those dealing with it currently and in the short term....that would be Cuba then the lower Keys...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
New EURO...Heads to corpus then due north....weird.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090812!!/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090812!!/
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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Re:
dogblues64 wrote:It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!
I mean this in the nicest way possible,I really do,but I dont think anyone here would agree that Key West is "right in the path".While key west is defiantly going to experience some effects from the storm,its almost the equivalent of stating that Mobile,AL was "right in the path" of Gustav.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Wx_Warrior wrote:New EURO...Heads to corpus then due north....weird.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090812!!/
Hard to follow, I would think it takes it inland around Corpus and then swings it back NE once inland.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I dont see that, it down by corpus and then 24 hours later its in East Texas. I guess they dont do model plots, hour by hour.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Summary of 12z Global Models:
GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas
GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
dwg71 wrote:
I dont see that, it down by corpus and then 24 hours later its in East Texas. I guess they dont do model plots, hour by hour.
actually I am looking at a better resolution than you DWG....Luis is not that far off....north of CC for sure...maybe other side of Matagorda. Still not good for West end of Galveston...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:
GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas
Corrections needed. GFS - South Texas Corpus
UKMET - South Texas Corpus
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- dogblues64
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Summary of 12z Global Models:
GFS=Corpus Christi
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=Corpus Christi
Corrected.
GFS=Corpus Christi
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=Corpus Christi
Corrected.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I am having a difficult time correlating models with locations, but I think the references to SE Texas may need to be to S. Texas. Traditionally (at least in Texas) Southeast Texas is Houston to Texas/Louisiana border. South Texas is sort of Houston and south.
cycloneye wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:
GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Do you have a summary like this for the prior run or 2 of these models...i think the summary you have is awesome...if we could see this for a few runs would get a clear sense of trend too...which may help ease the minds of those who are in any one run's track
cycloneye wrote:Summary of 12z Global Models:
GFS=SE Texas
CMC=Texas/LA Border
GFDL=SE Texas
HWRF=SE Texas
NOGAPS=SE Texas
EURO=Central,SE Texas
UKMET=SE Texas
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