ATL: IKE Discussion

[jasons2k]

Now the big question is will the 6Z models come back to the right some. Seems the NHC is hedging their bets, which is to be expected.

[cycloneye]

From the last VDM eyewall is closed:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

[rtd2]

Bump WNW.

Could have implications down-track.

I think the increasing convection is giving the illusion he's moving WNW.

Yep..Agree Looks like a bit S L O W E R though

[Air Force Met]

not even a mention of a threat to the Gulf coast this time...

in the 11AM advisory we saw:

IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

But no mention in the 5PM EST..

instead we see:

SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.


might they be possibly be thinking a threat to Mexico south of Texas?

Hmmm.....

Well...have you considered they might not be mentioning it because they put it inland??? Pretty good declaration of a threat when you stick it on the coast.

Hmmmm.......

[pablolopez26]

If Ike makes landfall to the south of Houston like the NHC is thinking, wouldnt that mean we get the "dirty side" of the storm?

Would it be "better" to just get a direct hit? I put better in quotations because its not really better per se...

[fasterdisaster]

Not an official forecast endorsed by S2k or any organization, please refer to official NWS and NHC products.

Definitely think he'll get to Category 2 by second landfall now.

[Tom8]

NASA's TRMM spacecraft observed this view of Hurricane Ike on September 8, 2008
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003500/a003557/

[N2Storms]

[quote="fasterdisaster"]Anyone else think he's intensifying?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html[/quote]



Boy, he is looking pretty darn good for someone who went without food and water for 12 -14 hrs. I'm impressed...he is no doubt going to be a very formiddable force to be reckoned with for the folks of Texas...I hate to wish ill on anyone, but I am very, pleased to see Ike not threatening my city/state...

[dwg71]

If Ike makes landfall to the south of Houston like the NHC is thinking, wouldnt that mean we get the "dirty side" of the storm?

Would it be "better" to just get a direct hit? I put better in quotations because its not really better per se...

No, a direct hit would be more devestating than a hit around Matagorday Bay, Hurricane most intense winds would be near the eye wall.

[pablolopez26]

No, a direct hit would be more devestating than a hit around Matagorday Bay, Hurricane most intense winds would be near the eye wall.

Okay, that makes sense. Thanks!

[Tireman4]

Umm.....Ahem...Carla....1961....Dont tell that to the folks in Galveston

Much of the damage was done well away from the landfall site, as Carla spawned one of the largest hurricane-related tornado outbreaks on record at the time, when 26 tornadoes touched down within its circulation.[3] One F4 tornado ripped through downtown Galveston, killing several (sources differ on the exact number, varying from 6 to 12). Outside the protection of the Galveston Seawall, structures on the island were severely damaged by storm surge. Damage was reported as far east as the Mississippi River delta.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carla

[KWT]

Hmmm I'm not so sure its impressive as it looks, the inner core is still a bit messy in that the inner eyewall is still there but the outer eyewall is still contracting down to a more typical size and is strengthening a little.

[Tom8]

The MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image at 10:40 a.m. EDT on September 4, 2008
http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/indi ... 2008-09-08

[rtd2]

Anyone else think he's intensifying?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

Boy, he is looking pretty darn good for someone who went without food and water for 12 -14 hrs. I'm impressed...he is no doubt going to be a very formiddable force to be reckoned with for the folks of Texas...I hate to wish ill on anyone, but I am very, pleased to see Ike not threatening my city/state...

yeah but unless he squeaks through the channel he will go back across cuba and weaken again...

[Sanibel]

290* and closer to the Keys if it doesn't correct.

[srainhoutx]

Umm.....Ahem...Carla....1962....Dont tell that to the folks in Galveston

Much of the damage was done well away from the landfall site, as Carla spawned one of the largest hurricane-related tornado outbreaks on record at the time, when 26 tornadoes touched down within its circulation.[3] One F4 tornado ripped through downtown Galveston, killing several (sources differ on the exact number, varying from 6 to 12). Outside the protection of the Galveston Seawall, structures on the island were severely damaged by storm surge. Damage was reported as far east as the Mississippi River delta.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carla

For the record. Carla was September 11/12, 1961

[rtd2]

290* and closer to the Keys if it doesn't correct.

i think the warnings for the keys have been discontinued? as of 5pm

[HouTXmetro]

Had they put landfall in Galveston or East I would be more at ease. With the track now SW I am more concerned for Houston. Even if Houston can avoid a direct Hit it will be on the nast side of Ike. I'm thinking Carla type scenario also which did alot of Damage in Houston despite landfall well SW of Houston.

[Brent]

290* and closer to the Keys if it doesn't correct.

i think the warnings for the keys have been discontinued? as of 5pm

The Hurricane Watch was, the TS Warning remains.

[KWT]

290* and closer to the Keys if it doesn't correct.

I think the center feature with the inner eyewall is still heading around 275-280 keeping in track with the Cuban coast's shape.