ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[TampaFl]

5:00pm position:

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 66 Hours:

[Sabanic]

It is going to be very interesting to see when the turn northward actually occurs later this week. As I have mentioned quite a few models are showing it offshore now which would bring Ike into NE/TX and LA. Wouldn't need to happen much earlier to make landfall happen in central to SE/LA.

That is why everyone along the GC needs to watch Ike carefully

Or maybe even Mobile, AL. I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

Ohh now that wasn't nice . . . Ha Ha

[cycloneye]

84 hours: In WestCentral GOM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

The trend is our friend, I think, looks like GFS (isn't out beyond 90 hours yet) wants to send Ike South of the Border, down Mexico way.


Not good for Mexico, of course, but I don't think there are big cities in Tamaulipas between Tampico and Matamoros.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 18z 96 h

[cycloneye]

96 hours=Mexico/Texas border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[jasons2k]

Wouldn't that be something if the Euro from last week - when was it, Wednesday? - turned out to be right after all. Crazy, crazy.

Anyway, let's see when happens overnight. Like AFM said, west for now, then they will trend east again.

[superfly]

Landfall TX/MX border

[Ed Mahmoud]

Padre Island, but at 12Z it was close to CRP. Trending South...


All the people talking to me about crow, well...

[HouTXmetro]

That Darn EURO, gotta Love it

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wouldn't that be something if the Euro from last week - when was it, Wednesday? - turned out to be right after all. Crazy, crazy.

Anyway, let's see when happens overnight. Like AFM said, west for now, then they will trend east again.

Be even crazier if the Euro track of a Hatteras to NYC track verified from a few days back, but I wouldn't bet money on that.

[cyberantonio]

The trend is our friend, I think, looks like GFS (isn't out beyond 90 hours yet) wants to send Ike South of the Border, down Mexico way.


Not good for Mexico, of course, but I don't think there are big cities in Tamaulipas between Tampico and Matamoros.

Hi, you are correct Ed, here at Tamaulipas the main populated cities are Tampico, Reynosa (border with Mcallen, Tx) , also Victoria City, we continue watching the runs of each model, caus it continues the south trends of the last runs.

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS is a bit more faster than the 12z as it makes landfall in 96 hours vs 120 hours at 12z.

[HouTXmetro]

So is it Padre or the border?

[TTheriot1975]

Well this is one model run..see where the others are...also..arent we getting to the nightime east shifts?

[shah8]

This is not July, and that is a very long way for a hurricane to be riding a ridge and not getting around it. Would definitly have to see a repeat at 00z to believe it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

So is it Padre or the border?

Well, Padre Island stretches from near CRP all the way to the border, basically. My biggest regret in college, since I joined in 1982 and missed 'The New GI Bill', I had to join something called VEAP and got just $225 a month in college. So, I worked, and never went to South Party Island during Spring Break.

Right on the border, best I can tell from this vantage point



Mis suegros son de Tamaulipas, pero no son cerca de la costa, de Cd. Ordaz/San Miguel, cerca de Los Ebanos, Texas.

[PTrackerLA]

That would be unfortunate for the folks in the RGV. They were hit pretty good with Dolly back in July.

[caneman]

That Darn EURO, gotta Love it

UKMET I believe would likely verify more. But hey, If they Euro also verifies maybe it'll catch up with GFDL for the year