ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3041 Postby TampaFl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:58 pm

5:00pm position:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3042 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2008 4:58 pm

18z GFS at 66 Hours:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Sabanic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
Location: Mobile, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3043 Postby Sabanic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:01 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Sabanic wrote:It is going to be very interesting to see when the turn northward actually occurs later this week. As I have mentioned quite a few models are showing it offshore now which would bring Ike into NE/TX and LA. Wouldn't need to happen much earlier to make landfall happen in central to SE/LA.

That is why everyone along the GC needs to watch Ike carefully


Or maybe even Mobile, AL. I'm sorry I couldn't resist.


Ohh now that wasn't nice . . . Ha Ha
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3044 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:03 pm

0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3045 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:08 pm

The trend is our friend, I think, looks like GFS (isn't out beyond 90 hours yet) wants to send Ike South of the Border, down Mexico way.


Not good for Mexico, of course, but I don't think there are big cities in Tamaulipas between Tampico and Matamoros.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3046 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:08 pm

gfs 18z 96 h

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3047 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:10 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#3048 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:11 pm

Wouldn't that be something if the Euro from last week - when was it, Wednesday? - turned out to be right after all. Crazy, crazy.

Anyway, let's see when happens overnight. Like AFM said, west for now, then they will trend east again.
0 likes   

superfly

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3049 Postby superfly » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:12 pm

Landfall TX/MX border

Image
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3050 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:12 pm

Padre Island, but at 12Z it was close to CRP. Trending South...


All the people talking to me about crow, well...
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#3051 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:12 pm

That Darn EURO, gotta Love it :)
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#3052 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:14 pm

jasons wrote:Wouldn't that be something if the Euro from last week - when was it, Wednesday? - turned out to be right after all. Crazy, crazy.

Anyway, let's see when happens overnight. Like AFM said, west for now, then they will trend east again.



Be even crazier if the Euro track of a Hatteras to NYC track verified from a few days back, but I wouldn't bet money on that.
0 likes   

cyberantonio
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:48 pm
Location: Tampico, Mexico
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3053 Postby cyberantonio » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:16 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:The trend is our friend, I think, looks like GFS (isn't out beyond 90 hours yet) wants to send Ike South of the Border, down Mexico way.


Not good for Mexico, of course, but I don't think there are big cities in Tamaulipas between Tampico and Matamoros.


Hi, you are correct Ed, here at Tamaulipas the main populated cities are Tampico, Reynosa (border with Mcallen, Tx) , also Victoria City, we continue watching the runs of each model, caus it continues the south trends of the last runs.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3054 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:18 pm

The 18z GFS is a bit more faster than the 12z as it makes landfall in 96 hours vs 120 hours at 12z.
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#3055 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:21 pm

So is it Padre or the border?
0 likes   

TTheriot1975
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 8:12 pm
Location: Southeast Texas

#3056 Postby TTheriot1975 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:21 pm

Well this is one model run..see where the others are...also..arent we getting to the nightime east shifts?
0 likes   

shah8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:36 pm

#3057 Postby shah8 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:27 pm

This is not July, and that is a very long way for a hurricane to be riding a ridge and not getting around it. Would definitly have to see a repeat at 00z to believe it.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#3058 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:28 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:So is it Padre or the border?


Well, Padre Island stretches from near CRP all the way to the border, basically. My biggest regret in college, since I joined in 1982 and missed 'The New GI Bill', I had to join something called VEAP and got just $225 a month in college. So, I worked, and never went to South Party Island during Spring Break.

Right on the border, best I can tell from this vantage point
Image


Mis suegros son de Tamaulipas, pero no son cerca de la costa, de Cd. Ordaz/San Miguel, cerca de Los Ebanos, Texas.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#3059 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:29 pm

That would be unfortunate for the folks in the RGV. They were hit pretty good with Dolly back in July.
0 likes   

caneman

Re:

#3060 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:32 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:That Darn EURO, gotta Love it :)


UKMET I believe would likely verify more. But hey, If they Euro also verifies maybe it'll catch up with GFDL for the year :wink:
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests