ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

Reposted from main thread by wxman57 about models at 00z.This is the real thread for this.

[TampaFl]

800pm position: hugging the coastline

[Brent]

The northern coast of the Yucatan really needs to keep and eye on this trend.

It's pulling WNW now. It's not going there.

In fact if it keeps up this track(big if), it will hit Texas near where Dolly hit

[RBDnhm]

Rita was the reverse of this trend. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RI ... hics.shtml

At this time frame(about 4.5 5 days) NHC had Rita pointed at Brownsville as did most models. Even the 3 day forecast before landfall was near matagorda Bay. Point is...we know how easy it is this time of year for a storm to get picked up right at the Texas coast and pulled north or north east. I wouldnt put any stock into a landfall south of Houston just yet.

[Shawee]

Rita was the reverse of this trend. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RI ... hics.shtml

At this time frame(about 4.5 5 days) NHC had Rita pointed at Brownsville as did most models. Even the 3 day forecast before landfall was near matagorda Bay. Point is...we know how easy it is this time of year for a storm to get picked up right at the Texas coast and pulled north or north east. I wouldnt put any stock into a landfall south of Houston just yet.

Did Ed re-resister under a different name??? just kidding PTP. Seriously, I agree with you and am not taking my gustov window boards down of another few days at least. I have a lot of faith in the NHC, but the recent discussion on shifting land falls should tell everyone not to let their guard down just yet, especially east of the current "consensus".

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, and still hope old Ike gets shredded and Cape Verde can watch his football game in peace! Tiger Stadium is still out of commission.

[PTPatrick]

Not sure who Ed is, but hey I am chill with whateva...just glad it aint heading to Mississippi no more. I am aware the trend with Rita was the opposite of this. But I just aint buying Brownsville yet. Just like a storm approaching FL from the Southeast, a few hours, a slow down here, a speed up there, a front 6 hours too soon can mean the difference between bye bye Miami and the "what was that storm that recurved just before hitting florida" conversations years later. I Still think this will slow to a crawl in the GOM, and then basically play havoc with the models and ultimately come to a landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Vermillion Bay. Be that as it may I would just as soon have it hit Kennedy County. I just dont think it will happen.

[deltadog03]

[Shawee]

Not sure who Ed is, but hey I am chill with whateva...just glad it aint heading to Mississippi no more. I am aware the trend with Rita was the opposite of this. But I just aint buying Brownsville yet. Just like a storm approaching FL from the Southeast, a few hours, a slow down here, a speed up there, a front 6 hours too soon can mean the difference between bye bye Miami and the "what was that storm that recurved just before hitting florida" conversations years later. I Still think this will slow to a crawl in the GOM, and then basically play havoc with the models and ultimately come to a landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Vermillion Bay. Be that as it may I would just as soon have it hit Kennedy County. I just dont think it will happen.

Ed Mahmoud, the infamous caller of "no more Texas Storms this year"... funny that we all get on him a bit, but he may still prove himself afterall? We had several of those type storms one here in New Orleans, Dean and Ivan most recently... though they didn't veer out to sea, they were VERY quickly forgotten in N.O. unfortunately.

all in good fun, Ed. That is what keep this board interesting.

[TTheriot1975]

ok deltadog..what are your thoughts..still SWLA? i think the models are too far south myself

[jasons2k]

Thank you, thank you! Yes, that is what will keep Ike from Mexico and South Texas IMO.

[Sabanic]

Thank you, thank you! Yes, that is what will keep Ike from Mexico and South Texas IMO.

Okay dumb question jason, but that is the trough that may cause Ike to turn more northward prior to the TX coast right?

[HouTXmetro]

Thank you, thank you! Yes, that is what will keep Ike from Mexico and South Texas IMO.

Ike may outrun that trough

[gboudx]

Thank you, thank you! Yes, that is what will keep Ike from Mexico and South Texas IMO.

Okay dumb question jason, but that is the trough that may cause Ike to turn more northward prior to the TX coast right?

Prior? After? Depends on timing. DFW NWS mentioned this trough being a player later this weekend, which would suggest "after" landfall.

[deltadog03]

Yes, that trof/area should be the one to turn it if he does...

[Wx_Warrior]

Why are you "thank you, thank you"....?

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z DGEX, which nobody ever uses for tropical cyclones, shows landfall Saturday near Port Lavaca.


I still have, IMHO, a 50/50 chance that Texas is spared, either by a continued bend Southward of the models, or the trough moving into the Pac NW having been underestimated, and hooking Ike back to Louisiana or points East.


Was it over when the Germans bombed the Alamo?

[Sabanic]

18Z DGEX, which nobody ever uses for tropical cyclones, shows landfall Saturday near Port Lavaca.


I still have, IMHO, a 50/50 chance that Texas is spared, either by a continued bend Southward of the models, or the trough moving into the Pac NW having been underestimated, and hooking Ike back to Louisiana or points East.


Was it over when the Germans bombed the Alamo?

You're a nut Ed, but gotta say I love it

[Portastorm]

18Z DGEX, which nobody ever uses for tropical cyclones, shows landfall Saturday near Port Lavaca.


I still have, IMHO, a 50/50 chance that Texas is spared, either by a continued bend Southward of the models, or the trough moving into the Pac NW having been underestimated, and hooking Ike back to Louisiana or points East.


Was it over when the Germans bombed the Alamo?

Ed, your tenacity is admirable! And I do love that sense of humor.

[gatorcane]

NHC way north of guidance at the moment. I'm smelling Mexico or extreme South Texas with Ike maybe...

[Stormcenter]

18Z DGEX, which nobody ever uses for tropical cyclones, shows landfall Saturday near Port Lavaca.


I still have, IMHO, a 50/50 chance that Texas is spared, either by a continued bend Southward of the models, or the trough moving into the Pac NW having been underestimated, and hooking Ike back to Louisiana or points East.


Was it over when the Germans bombed the Alamo?

Nothing wrong with hanging on to what you believe but eventually you have to let go.