ATL: IKE Discussion

[ROCK]

Carla was a huge storm with a very above average windfield.....pushed in a lot of surge also and the only F4 tornado to hit the Galveston Strand area.....

[Sanibel]

Havana - 25 gusts to 37


http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78224.html

[Shoshana]

EDIT: Please refresh my memory, how big and bad was Carla at landfall?

.

From Wikipedia

Hurricane Carla was one of two Category 5 tropical cyclones during the 1961 Atlantic hurricane season. It struck the Texas coast as a Category 4 hurricane, becoming one of the most powerful storms to ever strike the United States and the strongest ever to hit Texas.
...

Storm surge was measured at 22 feet (6.7 m) near the heads of bays, in some places penetrating 10 miles inland. Because of its large size, the entire Texas coast was affected, and damage was reported as far inland as Dallas. Sustained winds were reported to be 115 mph in Matagorda, 110 mph in Victoria and 88 mph in Galveston. Wind gusts as high as 170 mph were recorded at Port Lavaca.

edited to add - I read in a couple of places that Hurricane Carla had a diameter of hurricane-force winds of 300 miles, and diameter of tropical storm (gale) force winds of 500 miles. But I can't find any 'official' source for that.

[gatorcane]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

that's how I'm reading it.....I'd imagine residents in Mexico are starting to pay attention to Ike....tonight as models keep shifting farther and farther south and west.

[jinftl]

It is possible they only added the Yucatan because it is the next closest area of land to be near Ike....but that being said, the Yucatan is not in the cone, no mention of Yucatan has been made in any advisory discussion, and for the Yucatan to even get peripheral ts conditions, the track would have to almost keep going west to slight north of west....thus, a track change

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

that's how I'm reading it.....I'd imagine residents in Mexico are starting to pay attention to Ike....tonight as models keep shifting farther and farther south and west.

[Sanibel]

IMO the Gulf ridge won't plunge as much as the Atlantic ridge. Therefore the south and west trend should bottom out soon. There's a limit to climatology.

[southerngale]

After reading the 11pm discussion, and observing Ike's cloud structure this evening, I am getting concerned that Ike will likely strengthen beyond what the NHC is forecasting as Ike trasverses the GOM. Ike, according to the NHC, is redeveloping his core, this feature is parmount for a hurricane to become a major one. Ike should continue to slowly intenisify as he parallels the Cuban coast, provided the hurricane remains off shore. Looks like the poor people that just went though Gustav will get hit by Ike. Thankfully, Ike will not be as intense as Gustav was. With the upper enviroment forecast to be primed for Ike to intensify, we could possibly be witnessing a hurricane far stronger than the 100KTS the NHC is calling far at landfall......MGC

EDIT: Please refresh my memory, how big and bad was Carla at landfall?

Of course the above opinion is MGC's and not an official forecast.

Hey MGC...I am confused. If you are forecasting for it to be "far stronger" than 100 KTS, then wouldn't it be worse than Gustav. Could you clarify? Maybe I have been staring at the screen too long.

I think she meant not as intense as Gustav when it hits Cuba, but stronger than the NHC is currently forecasting for the U.S. landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm starting to think Ike may never make a US landfall and I wouldn't be surprised to see the areas south of brownsville into northern mexico as a final destination.

Yep, this looks Mexico bound to me too. The models keep moving further and further south with no signs of slowing down their trend southward... I don't see it landing in south mexico though. I"m thinking more in North Mexico...I think that's why the posting has slowed down here as well tonight.... I know from the past, anytime a storm starts to look like it will go into Mexico, the posts drop off dramatically..........

[latemodel25]

IMO the Gulf ridge won't plunge as much as the Atlantic ridge. Therefore the south and west trend should bottom out soon. There's a limit to climatology.

noticing your location, dont you get a little worried with such uncertainty with this storm? it looks so close to you on radar.. just curious. my uncle lived on pine island and got wiped out by charlie when it came through (sucked all of the water right out of his canal) etc. etc. anyhow i would be very nervous with so much uncertainty. although all the models appear to be in consensus.. (follow the leader?)

[mattpetre]

I'm starting to think Ike may never make a US landfall and I wouldn't be surprised to see the areas south of brownsville into northern mexico as a final destination.

Yep, this looks Mexico bound to me too. The models keep moving further and further south with no signs of slowing down their trend southward... I don't see it landing in south mexico though. I"m thinking more in North Mexico...I think that's why the posting has slowed down here as well tonight.... I know from the past, anytime a storm starts to look like it will go into Mexico, the posts drop off dramatically..........

I'm willing to bet IKE will be N. of Brownsville at the very least. I just don't see the high riding him all the way till Saturday now. Feel like making any friendly wagers on this one? I'll take north of and right on Corpus and you get all points south.

[cycloneye]

[mattpetre]

IMO the Gulf ridge won't plunge as much as the Atlantic ridge. Therefore the south and west trend should bottom out soon. There's a limit to climatology.

This ridge is strong, but it is definately coming to its rock bottom, I agree completely.

[HouTXmetro]

Call me crazy but it looks like Ike is moving south of West again.

[Sanibel]

Same time of year, same track but further south. Beulah 1967:

[mattpetre]

Same time of year, same track but further south. Beulah 1967:

Don't take that track and move it to where IKE currently is... could be ugly for some large city.

[fasterdisaster]

I have a wager. If this goes into Mexico I will not post for 2 weeks. I know I shall get snarky 'you promise?' type remarks, but I JUST COVERED THE BASES SO NO SNARKINESS FO YOU. I just don't think there is any chance this will go to Mexico. The models will start shifting north soon, then settle at a medium, because they have made the trough as possibly futile as they could and the ridge as strong as possible. So there you have it, if it makes landfall SOUTH of the TexMex border I will stop posting for 2 weeks.

[Red_Fish]

Call me crazy but it looks like Ike is moving south of West again.

Maybe it's convection wrapping up that makes it look like it is dipping in that direction?

[Texas Snowman]

Bastardi is thinking a Carla type hit on the middle Tx coast.

I think a Carla like storm is coming, but I'm sticking with my own personal - and totally unofficial - forecast of a hit SW of Galveston.

That area has had some serious September hits in the past, but it has been a long, long time. Think the sand in the hourglass is running out there with Ike.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ike is a big boy from this point of view, would cover the entire state of Florida. Fill in those empty spots in between the convection and he would look like a monster.

[fasterdisaster]

No doubt about it now, he's trying to strengthen (I know I said it before but he ran into land (kinda) and stopped)