ATL: IKE Discussion

[Aristotle]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

We are on Chapter 25 of a 50 page book Some on here buy this Cliff notes and pass the test... Some read the whole book.. Up to you who or what you trust

man that book has alot of chapters for a 50 page book

[gubyw1]

Given that the overall structure of Ike remains intact and with good convection, I expect Ike to rapidly redevelop as it moves over open water. This ones got Cat 4 written all over it. Buoy SANF1 is now reporting 54 g 59 kts. The NE area is definitely windiest with winds farthest out in that direction. That means if Ike becomes a large upper end cat3/cat 4 (and I'm sure it will) and comes in near Corpus Christi it will rake LA with strong tropical storm force winds. I don't think Ike will decay anywhere near as much as Gustav did. This is based on the excellent structure that Ike has maintained with good feeder bands reaching way out despite having been over Cuba for many hours.

[jasons2k]

I think dry air will be a bigger factor than shear, and that's iffy.

[haml8]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

We are on Chapter 25 of a 50 page book Some on here buy this Cliff notes and pass the test... Some read the whole book.. Up to you who or what you trust

man that book has alot of chapters for a 50 page book

You got me!!! typo... but you get the point ..

[Nederlander]

Given that the overall structure of Ike remains intact and with good convection, I expect Ike to rapidly redevelop as it moves over open water. This ones got Cat 4 written all over it.

unfortunately I agree.... but look what happened to Gustav... never got its act together in the GoM

[ROCK]

Yes, the GFS shifted north (Su-PRIZE su-PRIZE) and looky how fast it erodes the ridge. Ike better make that 84hr landfall mark (yeah right) or it's going to go even more north than what it currently shows (8-ball says "likely").

I am not surprised at all.. ..climo was against MX/STX and the all knowing / all mighty EURO suggested this same erosion... If I had to guess RIGHT NOW it might level out around Matagorda or Freeport....

[KWT]

It all depends on whether the shear stays low or not around Ike, the shear really isn't all that bad over Ike right now though there does seems to be a little at the upper levels but right now the system probably isn't tall enough in terms of vertical extent to really feel it.

jasons, I think thats the flow round the big high near Mexico, depends whether the core is strong the mix it all out, if its a major then it should be ok.

[dwg71]

Ok, Radar can be decieving but Key West radar appears to show Ike going south of W??

Confirm/deny??

[KWT]

Still looks about the same as before on the vis imagery dwg71, though the eye is starting to cave in a little now and also slow down, probably as its about to go over the mountions that are present.

[deltadog03]

DWG...I think its still moving a solid WNW....MAybe 285-290....

[KWT]

Agreed Delta though it has slwoed down a touch as it goes over the hillier part of the Cuban track. A little hard to tell with the eye starting to cave in but the inner core looks solid still.

Here is some damage reports from the keys, actually a fair amount from the sounds of things:

http://keysnews.com/node/5440

[dwg71]

I cant see 285-290. I would venture to say its not moving south of due west, but 270-275 at most. JMO.

Not a wobble war. Hard to tell without an eye.

[cape_escape]

Agreed Delta though it has slwoed down a touch as it goes over the hillier part of the Cuban track. A little hard to tell with the eye starting to cave in but the inner core looks solid still.

Here is some damage reports from the keys, actually a fair amount from the sounds of things:

http://keysnews.com/node/5440

Wow! How long will they be getting this type of weather?

[cape_escape]

Just in case anyone's interested, this is a great loop of the past 48 hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lay48.html

[deltadog03]

Don't know if this has been posted yet...but, if it bombs and does so fairly quickly look what awaits him....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

[gubyw1]

Looks like it's still moving 270-275, might have turned a bit but in any case soon Ike will be over the GOM, and it's already has strong appearance on IR and great convection despite being over land.

[haml8]

Don't know if this has been posted yet...but, if it bombs and does so fairly quickly look what awaits him....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

So are you implying that if he goes ballistic and increases in intensity VERY quickly to a Cat 3 storm that the steering winds would take him into florida panhandle?

I am not questioning you just trying to understand what you really mean or are forecasting IF he bombs out..

[deltadog03]

Well, that weakness is not suppose to stay there longer than 48 hours.....But, in the short term yes, towards that weakness....

[CoCo2]

Don't know if this has been posted yet...but, if it bombs and does so fairly quickly look what awaits him....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

Would the next run of models take the weakness you reference into consideration?
Thanks!

[bob rulz]

It really looks to me that even though the eye is starting to collapse that the banding is actually improving over the ocean. Not a good sign. Inner core and structure are still well intact.

It also took a rather significant wobble to the west just as it made landfall.