ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[pablolopez26]

Big GFDL shift north,now landfall Between Freeport and Galveston Bay.

More like Matagorda per the points, but still a huge shift north.

Hi there, thanks for your info.

Where are you seeing this northerly turn? And thanks!

[Brent]

HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore.

[Aristotle]

HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore.

899??????????

[Air Force Met]

South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.

But is it a trend down further south, models seem to be moving towards an area from Border to Matagorda Bay. Split the difference and you have the current NHC track.

Dude...you're really reaching.

GFDL now near UKMET track over SW Matagorda County. UKMET didn't really shift that much south. GFS is now NORTH of NHC track. GFDL, as predicted, shifted 200 miles NE. You split the diff and you have something that is 60nm NE of the NHC track.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Brent"]HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore.

[img]http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/hwrf/12zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest084.gif[/img][/quote]


Ouch...Houston, we have a problem...

[CronkPSU]

899!?!?#?!?!?

whoa

[txag2005]

Wow...we're back to where we were 24 hours ago.

GFDL and HWRF look to be close to Galveston hits (if that HWRF model is the most recent run) and everything else but NOGAPS looks to be Corpus or north.


I think the 5 PM track may shift back up to Matagorda if the NHC trusts the new runs.

[ROCK]

899 is el stupido.....GFDL and HWRF intensity should be for entertainment purposes only. If anything the SHIPS handles well but not all that well......


BTW- not surprised at all from these tracks....

[Aristotle]

I vacation in Galveston all the time. Nice rentals right on the beach. If that comes true........Looks like Destin

[txag2005]

899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????

[rtd2]

Didn't the NHC basically ignore what the GFDL was showing on Sunday
when it had Ike going toward AL. and the other models were pointed at Texas?

not really..... it was the far east model they used in the cone

[cycloneye]

ROCK,the board is yours now,bring on the 12z EURO.

[dwg71]

These huge swings are puzzeling to say the least.

[rtd2]

899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????

wilma!!!!!!!!!!!! gilbert!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Re: the HWRF ... John Madden would say: "Oh, that one's gonna leave a mark!"

[txag2005]

When does the next EURO come out?

[Brent]

I wouldn't take the HWRF's intensity too seriously(hence why I said I'm no longer shocked at what it does), it blows up every storm into an epic monster. Sub-900 though is pretty low even for it.

[Stormcenter]

HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore.

899??????????

NO WAY 899!
Talk about OVER estimated the intensity.

[Aristotle]

899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????

No thats the number of the beast~~~!!!!!!

[jasons2k]

899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????

Yeah, but the windfield is Cat 4. Still, it is the HWRF....unlikely scenario.