ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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pablolopez26
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3361 Postby pablolopez26 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:44 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Big GFDL shift north,now landfall Between Freeport and Galveston Bay.


More like Matagorda per the points, but still a huge shift north.


Hi there, thanks for your info.

Where are you seeing this northerly turn? And thanks!
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3362 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:46 pm

HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore. :P

Image
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Aristotle
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3363 Postby Aristotle » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:47 pm

Brent wrote:HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore. :P

Image


899??????????

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: Re:

#3364 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:47 pm

dwg71 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:South shift by the UKMET but still close enough into Matagorda Bay.


But is it a trend down further south, models seem to be moving towards an area from Border to Matagorda Bay. Split the difference and you have the current NHC track.


Dude...you're really reaching.

GFDL now near UKMET track over SW Matagorda County. UKMET didn't really shift that much south. GFS is now NORTH of NHC track. GFDL, as predicted, shifted 200 miles NE. You split the diff and you have something that is 60nm NE of the NHC track.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3365 Postby N2Storms » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:47 pm

[quote="Brent"]HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore. :P

[img]http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/hwrf/12zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest084.gif[/img][/quote]


Ouch...Houston, we have a problem...
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#3366 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:48 pm

:double: :double: :double: 899!?!?#?!?!? :double: :double: :double:

whoa
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3367 Postby txag2005 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:48 pm

Wow...we're back to where we were 24 hours ago.

GFDL and HWRF look to be close to Galveston hits (if that HWRF model is the most recent run) and everything else but NOGAPS looks to be Corpus or north.


I think the 5 PM track may shift back up to Matagorda if the NHC trusts the new runs.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3368 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:48 pm

899 is el stupido.....GFDL and HWRF intensity should be for entertainment purposes only. If anything the SHIPS handles well but not all that well......


BTW- not surprised at all from these tracks....
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3369 Postby Aristotle » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:48 pm

I vacation in Galveston all the time. Nice rentals right on the beach. If that comes true........Looks like Destin :roll:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3370 Postby txag2005 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:48 pm

899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3371 Postby rtd2 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:49 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Didn't the NHC basically ignore what the GFDL was showing on Sunday
when it had Ike going toward AL. and the other models were pointed at Texas?





not really..... it was the far east model they used in the cone
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3372 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:49 pm

ROCK,the board is yours now,bring on the 12z EURO. :)
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#3373 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:49 pm

These huge swings are puzzeling to say the least.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3374 Postby rtd2 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:49 pm

txag2005 wrote:899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????




wilma!!!!!!!!!!!! gilbert!!!!!!!!!!!! :double:
Last edited by rtd2 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3375 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:49 pm

Re: the HWRF ... John Madden would say: "Oh, that one's gonna leave a mark!"
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3376 Postby txag2005 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50 pm

When does the next EURO come out?
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3377 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50 pm

I wouldn't take the HWRF's intensity too seriously(hence why I said I'm no longer shocked at what it does), it blows up every storm into an epic monster. Sub-900 though is pretty low even for it.
Last edited by Brent on Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3378 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50 pm

Aristotle wrote:
Brent wrote:HWRF, I'm not even shocked anymore. :P

Image


899??????????

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:



NO WAY 899!
Talk about OVER estimated the intensity.
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Aristotle
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3379 Postby Aristotle » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:50 pm

txag2005 wrote:899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????



No thats the number of the beast~~~!!!!!!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#3380 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:51 pm

txag2005 wrote:899 MB....Isn't that pressure of a Cat 5????


Yeah, but the windfield is Cat 4. Still, it is the HWRF....unlikely scenario.
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