ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[txag2005]

How does that compare to the last run?

[Wx_Warrior]

Nearly the same.

[KWT]

GFS seems to be all over the place with Ike, I suspect when it gets some of the new data in it'll settle down on its ideas somewhat.

[shah8]

Not materially different. A tiny bit further south.

[txag2005]

I'm interested to see the next batch of runs at 8.

[dwg71]

GFS has hardly any new data in it. You have to wait for the 0Z run at 11 pm to see if there's been a true track shift.

Well its a model run, like most others - take it for what its worth. There is some value in it. How much, who knows.

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't usually say this but: 18z BUNK....

EDIT: 500mb had SE winds

Isn't Ike moving NW now?

[HouTXmetro]

Wasn't the last GFS Matagorda?

[HouTXmetro]

I don't usually say this but: 18z BUNK....

Isn't Ike moving NW now?

Does the 18z have it moving in another direction?

[dwg71]

This run is more close the previous four that had south texas landfall.. Not a great recurve yet through 90 hours.

[gboudx]

I don't usually say this but: 18z BUNK....

Isn't Ike moving NW now?

Does the 18z have it moving in another direction?

Same. Just north of Brownsville.

[dwg71]

I don't usually say this but: 18z BUNK....

Isn't Ike moving NW now?

Does the 18z have it moving in another direction?

Same. Just north of Brownsville.

12Z had it much further north, 75+ miles I belive. Its a pretty substantial move.

Bottom line, it appears models are zeroing in on an area from North of Brownsville and Matagorda Bay. Lets see what happens.

[Nederlander]

NHC still looks like its on the southern edge of the consensus... look for the 11 pm track to shift even further north

[HouTXmetro]

Actually that is a Big shift back south. The last run was wll north, almost near Matagorda.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe I read somewhere that the CONUS Obs/soundings being made tonight of the trough moving into the NW will possibly make adjustments happen with the runs of the models sometime tomorrow. Not sure exactly when, has anyone else read this somewhere?

[gboudx]

I believe I read somewhere that the CONUS Obs/soundings being made tonight of the trough moving into the NW will possibly make adjustments happen with the runs of the models sometime tomorrow. Not sure exactly when, has anyone else read this somewhere?

Jeff Lidner had mentioned something about those soundings in his updates today. Check the TA forum. Maybe that's where you heard this?

[TTheriot1975]

OK..when I see the 78 hr map..doesnt it look like the high is moved more east..that there is no more high as far east as central LA? To me it does...so why would that bring Ike into south Texas...wouldnt that pull him even more north?

[3ABirdMan]

I believe I read somewhere that the CONUS Obs/soundings being made tonight of the trough moving into the NW will possibly make adjustments happen with the runs of the models sometime tomorrow. Not sure exactly when, has anyone else read this somewhere?

Jeff Lidner had mentioned something about those soundings in his updates today. Check the TA forum. Maybe that's where you heard this?

It's definetly on HERE somewhere. In fact, I think I read it in TWO different places, but then, when I'm gone for a while, I READ to catch up, I don't just jump to the last post ........ (no sarcasm intended btw)

[Air Force Met]

Actually that is a Big shift back south. The last run was wll north, almost near Matagorda.

No its not that big of a shift. You might want to look at something that is a little higher resolution. You also need to NOT look at the vort max...since the vort max isn't the center (no vorticity near the center).

12Z run brings it in near Rockport at 00z.

The 18z run brings it in near CRP at 06z. So...its slower and about 50 miles to the south.

It also initializes wrong. At 6 hrs...it has the center on the western tip of Cuba...near 22.5/84.5 moving west. Now...Ike might make a 60 mile jog to the SW over the next hour...but somehow I doubt it.

And above all that...its the GFS for cryin out loud. Take it with a grain of salt fo now. Its track record with Ike...even over the last 48 hrs...is HORRIBLE.

[TTheriot1975]

Ok AFM...I asked a question earlier..maybe you can answer also...OK..when I see the 78 hr map..doesnt it look like the high is moved more east..that there is no more high as far east as central LA? To me it does...so why would that bring Ike into south Texas...wouldnt that pull him even more north?

Also what are your thoughts to eventual landfall?