ATL: IKE Discussion

[TampaFl]

Is Ike doing a small counterclock wise loop? Sure does look like it on this radar loop from SFWMD - Key West radar. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_byx2_anim.gif

[Stormcenter]

Brazoria County (Freeport) has ordered a mandatory evacuation for coastal residents, voluntary for the remainder of the county for now.

I think Freeport is the place to watch - the closer Ike makes landfall to that location, the worst effects for Galveston and Houston.

Notice Ike is on a NW course this morning. Wonder how long that will continue before the expected WNW motion resumes later on?

What satelite loop are you guys looking at..? I see W to WNW at best.

That's what I'm seeing but honestly it really is hard to make out.

[HenkL]

Recent pass though the eye from NOAA plane was a bit south of the latest AF304 VDM position.

[HouTXmetro]

TampaFl

I new I wasn't crazy, that Eye was almost near 24L only to loop back down!!!! Clearly going to slow things down even more.

[Sabanic]

Guys has he slowed down a little bit? Hard to tell, but he surely isn't moving as quicklyas he has been.

[ronjon]

TampaFL, yeah I saw that on KYW RAD also. I wonder if the eye-like feature is rotating within a larger center or if steering currents have collasped and Ike is doing a CC loop.

[Texashawk]

Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.

I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.

That's a double edged sword, isn't it? Seemingly, those people that endured Rita would maybe make a decision based on past experience without waiting for someone to tell them to leave. If they are told to leave and little weather results, then "it was all hype". . .

Just like the NO people and Gustav. "We really didn't have to evacuate . . . . we're not leaving next time . . . ". Those that left using their own brain skills are still glad they did and would do it again.

Trust me. I understand that. In fact, my family did not evac for Rita. My point is that there are vastly more people affected than in NO/LA coast, and we are frankly probably past the point where if it makes a turn in the next 12-24 hours or so, the sheer number of people who live here will prevent everybody from getting out who wants to. The image everyone dreaded with Rita was cars sitting on a freeway while hurricane-force winds whipped driving rain all around them. There's just too many people here for people to be able to 'cherry pick' the situation. I completely understand what you're saying, what I'm telling you is logisticlly it may already be too late if people wait on their own much longer... and then remember that without evac orders, business will not shut down, government will not shut down, and if that doesn't happen, how can you leave without maybe getting in trouble with your job? Government is supposed to protect its people, and that includes telling businesses when their workers are no longer safe and providing that 'push' that maybe businesses wouldn't have otherwise. Do you see my point??

[HouTXmetro]

Guys has he slowed down a little bit? Hard to tell, but he surely isn't moving as quicklyas he has been.

He's Two stepping to Texas.

[KWT]

You really can't use the key west radar too heavily right now, the system is just too far away to get a decent measure on motion and speed, best use Vis/IR from here on out until its getting closer to Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

This is getting off topic I suppose, but I believe part of the "problem" is that Texas' coastal communities (at least those from Freeport to Houston) evac by pre-determined zip codes based on storm surge potential.

When Rita was a 175 mph monster and presenting Galveston/Houston with a doom's day scenario, most of the city and surburbs emptied. And that was not only storm surge affected residents but also residents that lived miles from any storm surge zones who just simply didn't want to ride it out; be stuck in the hot, sticky aftermath; etc.

Problem is, when an entire metro area like Houston evacs, there is just virtually no way for such a procedure to go smoothly in a 48-72 hour window. That's why there were nightmarish experiences of 17 hour roadtrips from Houston to Austin, etc. I think the evac plan is to get people out of harm's way (coastal storm surge zones) and not necessarily away from the discomfort of a post-hurricane experience.

That's just my .02 cents worth and we all know what that is worth. And I certainly can't blame anyone for wanting to leave if they live in suburbs that will be shredded by wind and be without power for days, but the traffic nightmare is well, a nightmare.

Unfortunately, I believe that the landfall forecast will shift northward over time and very possibly bring all of this back into play for Ike.

[N2Storms]

[quote="HouTXmetro"][quote="Sabanic"]Guys has he slowed down a little bit? Hard to tell, but he surely isn't moving as quicklyas he has been.[/quote]

He's Two stepping to Texas.[/quote]



Well, if he continues at this speed for another 48 hours he'll be two stepping into Louisiana

[Sanibel]

Saw that too. Thought it was outside range of radar quirk. If it is looping it could be encountering the outside edge of the new Texas High. What you in Texas don't want this motion to be is an intensification wobble inside the outer eyewall.


Rained last night here and blustery from the NE edge that is now moving off.

[KWT]

Convection really blowing up in the eastern eyewall but that was to be expected, whats relaly interesting to me is the way the convection has just expanded in the western quadrant which may wlel be a sign shear has just eased off quite a lot.

No doubt its strengthening now and the presentation is getting more and more impressive.

[Texas Snowman]

TexasHawk, I agree - it's getting pretty late in the window of opportunity to get a somewhat smooth evac of Houston/Galveston (heck, I don't think I've ever been to Houston without getting stuck in traffic, even on a sunny day).

I totally understand the problem that emergency planners have - they don't want Rita II, they don't want to cry wolf, they don't want to create a situation where people might not heed evac orders somewhere down the road, etc.

But with Houston less than 75 miles from a potential worst case scenario landfall near Freeport, I don't think they can afford to take the chance here with a Cat 3 forecast to hit. Same goes for Corpus too, too close for comfort.

[Stormcenter]

Guys has he slowed down a little bit? Hard to tell, but he surely isn't moving as quicklyas he has been.

He's Two stepping to Texas.

Well, if he continues at this speed for another 48 hours he'll be two stepping into Louisiana

Or maybe even Florida. Seriously though when all is said and done
he is going where the NHC has him going....somewhere along the
middle TX coastline.

[TampaFl]

You really can't use the key west radar too heavily right now, the system is just too far away to get a decent measure on motion and speed, best use Vis/IR from here on out until its getting closer to Texas.

KWT, I thought of that (due to the distance ect), but at least it may be a clue of Ike doing the loop. Now if we can possibley see it on sat. pics. But I think we can all agree it appears to have really slowed down in the last several hours. What implications could this have on the long term track - only time will tell.

[HURAKAN]

[bobbutts]

This is getting off topic I suppose, but I believe part of the "problem" is that Texas' coastal communities (at least those from Freeport to Houston) evac by pre-determined zip codes based on storm surge potential.

When Rita was a 175 mph monster and presenting Galveston/Houston with a doom's day scenario, most of the city and surburbs emptied. And that was not only storm surge affected residents but also residents that lived miles from any storm surge zones who just simply didn't want to ride it out; be stuck in the hot, sticky aftermath; etc.

Problem is, when an entire metro area like Houston evacs, there is just virtually no way for such a procedure to go smoothly in a 48-72 hour window. That's why there were nightmarish experiences of 17 hour roadtrips from Houston to Austin, etc. I think the evac plan is to get people out of harm's way (coastal storm surge zones) and not necessarily away from the discomfort of a post-hurricane experience.

That's just my .02 cents worth and we all know what that is worth. And I certainly can't blame anyone for wanting to leave if they live in suburbs that will be shredded by wind and be without power for days, but the traffic nightmare is well, a nightmare.

Unfortunately, I believe that the landfall forecast will shift northward over time and very possibly bring all of this back into play for Ike.

I think that Charley, with his unexpectedly high winds and Katrina with her unexpectedly high surge has changed the psyche of people a little to lean towards evacuation. In the end, it's the water that kills and that's where the evacuation should focus. Charley's low death total in Charlotte County shows that even cat 4 winds do not pose anywhere near the threat that surge flooding does.
Not that I enjoyed riding out Charley's eye in Port Charlotte, but it was unpleasant rather than deadly, big difference.

[KWT]

Hurakan, looking more and more impressive right now, Ike's wrapping itself up very well right now I see around its eye feature which you can still tell even though its clouded over.

Also that western side has really expanded out just recently, that plus pressure now down to 955mbs suggests to me that it won't be long before the winds increase again as they try and catch up.

[Mattie]

Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.

I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.

That's a double edged sword, isn't it? Seemingly, those people that endured Rita would maybe make a decision based on past experience without waiting for someone to tell them to leave. If they are told to leave and little weather results, then "it was all hype". . .

Just like the NO people and Gustav. "We really didn't have to evacuate . . . . we're not leaving next time . . . ". Those that left using their own brain skills are still glad they did and would do it again.

Trust me. I understand that. In fact, my family did not evac for Rita. My point is that there are vastly more people affected than in NO/LA coast, and we are frankly probably past the point where if it makes a turn in the next 12-24 hours or so, the sheer number of people who live here will prevent everybody from getting out who wants to. The image everyone dreaded with Rita was cars sitting on a freeway while hurricane-force winds whipped driving rain all around them. There's just too many people here for people to be able to 'cherry pick' the situation. I completely understand what you're saying, what I'm telling you is logisticlly it may already be too late if people wait on their own much longer... and then remember that without evac orders, business will not shut down, government will not shut down, and if that doesn't happen, how can you leave without maybe getting in trouble with your job? Government is supposed to protect its people, and that includes telling businesses when their workers are no longer safe and providing that 'push' that maybe businesses wouldn't have otherwise. Do you see my point??

Absolutely! and very, very true! You can't just get up and say "gotta go". I believe that in the event of hurricane conditions coming into your area, that there is an understanding (with conditions) that you have the ability to do what is best for your family and not worry that you will get "fired". Just a no win situation.