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HouTXmetro wrote:Texas Snowman wrote:Brazoria County (Freeport) has ordered a mandatory evacuation for coastal residents, voluntary for the remainder of the county for now.
I think Freeport is the place to watch - the closer Ike makes landfall to that location, the worst effects for Galveston and Houston.
Notice Ike is on a NW course this morning. Wonder how long that will continue before the expected WNW motion resumes later on?
What satelite loop are you guys looking at..? I see W to WNW at best.
Mattie wrote:Texashawk wrote:Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.
I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.
That's a double edged sword, isn't it? Seemingly, those people that endured Rita would maybe make a decision based on past experience without waiting for someone to tell them to leave. If they are told to leave and little weather results, then "it was all hype". . .
Just like the NO people and Gustav. "We really didn't have to evacuate . . . . we're not leaving next time . . . ". Those that left using their own brain skills are still glad they did and would do it again.
Sabanic wrote:Guys has he slowed down a little bit? Hard to tell, but he surely isn't moving as quicklyas he has been.
N2Storms wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:Sabanic wrote:Guys has he slowed down a little bit? Hard to tell, but he surely isn't moving as quicklyas he has been.
He's Two stepping to Texas.
Well, if he continues at this speed for another 48 hours he'll be two stepping into Louisiana
KWT wrote:You really can't use the key west radar too heavily right now, the system is just too far away to get a decent measure on motion and speed, best use Vis/IR from here on out until its getting closer to Texas.
Texas Snowman wrote:This is getting off topic I suppose, but I believe part of the "problem" is that Texas' coastal communities (at least those from Freeport to Houston) evac by pre-determined zip codes based on storm surge potential.
When Rita was a 175 mph monster and presenting Galveston/Houston with a doom's day scenario, most of the city and surburbs emptied. And that was not only storm surge affected residents but also residents that lived miles from any storm surge zones who just simply didn't want to ride it out; be stuck in the hot, sticky aftermath; etc.
Problem is, when an entire metro area like Houston evacs, there is just virtually no way for such a procedure to go smoothly in a 48-72 hour window. That's why there were nightmarish experiences of 17 hour roadtrips from Houston to Austin, etc. I think the evac plan is to get people out of harm's way (coastal storm surge zones) and not necessarily away from the discomfort of a post-hurricane experience.
That's just my .02 cents worth and we all know what that is worth. And I certainly can't blame anyone for wanting to leave if they live in suburbs that will be shredded by wind and be without power for days, but the traffic nightmare is well, a nightmare.
Unfortunately, I believe that the landfall forecast will shift northward over time and very possibly bring all of this back into play for Ike.
Texashawk wrote:Mattie wrote:Texashawk wrote:Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.
I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.
That's a double edged sword, isn't it? Seemingly, those people that endured Rita would maybe make a decision based on past experience without waiting for someone to tell them to leave. If they are told to leave and little weather results, then "it was all hype". . .
Just like the NO people and Gustav. "We really didn't have to evacuate . . . . we're not leaving next time . . . ". Those that left using their own brain skills are still glad they did and would do it again.
Trust me. I understand that. In fact, my family did not evac for Rita. My point is that there are vastly more people affected than in NO/LA coast, and we are frankly probably past the point where if it makes a turn in the next 12-24 hours or so, the sheer number of people who live here will prevent everybody from getting out who wants to. The image everyone dreaded with Rita was cars sitting on a freeway while hurricane-force winds whipped driving rain all around them. There's just too many people here for people to be able to 'cherry pick' the situation. I completely understand what you're saying, what I'm telling you is logisticlly it may already be too late if people wait on their own much longer... and then remember that without evac orders, business will not shut down, government will not shut down, and if that doesn't happen, how can you leave without maybe getting in trouble with your job? Government is supposed to protect its people, and that includes telling businesses when their workers are no longer safe and providing that 'push' that maybe businesses wouldn't have otherwise. Do you see my point??
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