ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[haml8]

Can anyone tell me if this GFDL run is a good one? Whether is was initialized properly, has all the aircraft data loaded, is taking into consideration the front (trough ) from the NW and the sampling of it to determin timing?? Just curious. I know yesterday everyone seemed to dimiss these midday runs as not having the datat to be somewhat reliable...

[Sabanic]

Can anyone tell me if this GFDL run is a good one? Whether is was initialized properly, has all the aircraft data loaded, is taking into consideration the front (trough ) from the NW and the sampling of it to determin timing?? Just curious. I know yesterday everyone seemed to dimiss these midday runs as not having the datat to be somewhat reliable...

I remember that also, but I'm sure there is a reason now why it is more verifiable

[vaffie]

Can anyone tell me if this GFDL run is a good one? Whether is was initialized properly, has all the aircraft data loaded, is taking into consideration the front (trough ) from the NW and the sampling of it to determin timing?? Just curious. I know yesterday everyone seemed to dimiss these midday runs as not having the datat to be somewhat reliable...

I remember that also, but I'm sure there is a reason now why it is more verifiable

It's the 6Z and the 18Z runs which don't have much new data in them. The 12 (these ones) and 0Z are good to go...

[rtd2]

We are still in GFDL's accuracy range for Ike at this distance. GFDL's history with Ike was nailing trends in advance. This is the second model "wavelength" I was talking about now showing up. GFDL leads with its tail so it is definitely taking the trough into consideration. This is now a tough nut because GFDL has already overblown a trough recurve west of Florida with Ike. The second wavelength is now a poleward rightward influence instead of an under-ridge influence that GFDL excelled at. I have a feeling they'll err on the safe side and you'll be hearing of an evacuation of Houston shortly.

Excellent post Sanibel!
What concerns me is the Friday evening landfall. That's a little over 2 days away!

better kick it into high gear to make friday

[haml8]

Can anyone tell me if this GFDL run is a good one? Whether is was initialized properly, has all the aircraft data loaded, is taking into consideration the front (trough ) from the NW and the sampling of it to determin timing?? Just curious. I know yesterday everyone seemed to dimiss these midday runs as not having the datat to be somewhat reliable...

I remember that also, but I'm sure there is a reason now why it is more verifiable

It's the 6Z and the 18Z runs which don't have much new data in them. The 12 (these ones) and 0Z are good to go...

Thanks for the response... not the answer I WANTED to hear but thanks

[HouTXmetro]

Any word on the EURO, someone on another board said no change but didn't provide a link.

[Jagno]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[KWT]

Thats the 0z run, the 12z run hasn't come out yet on that offical site.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS has landfall on Matagorda Bay.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

[haml8]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

I don't know man, zooming in on that (not hi res) It sure looks half way between Matagorda and Freeport.. even closer to freeport heading North through that area. Maybe one of these guys will post a super secrect hi res image of the landfall point

[dwg71]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

Matagorda Bay Area.. Give or take

Consensous is still Matagorda... lets wait and see, if a trend continues or another shift south.

[ROCK]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

not sure something doesnt look right with that run...I wouldnt put to much into it.....b/c we all know the EURO rocks!!


NHC has no choice but to shift the track slightly north now...

[vaffie]

zooming in on the Euro, and it makes landfall just north of the Bay, between Matagorda and Freeport.

[AL Chili Pepper]

We are still in GFDL's accuracy range for Ike at this distance. GFDL's history with Ike was nailing trends in advance. This is the second model "wavelength" I was talking about now showing up. GFDL leads with its tail so it is definitely taking the trough into consideration. This is now a tough nut because GFDL has already overblown a trough recurve west of Florida with Ike. The second wavelength is now a poleward rightward influence instead of an under-ridge influence that GFDL excelled at. I have a feeling they'll err on the safe side and you'll be hearing of an evacuation of Houston shortly.

Excellent post Sanibel!
What concerns me is the Friday evening landfall. That's a little over 2 days away!

better kick it into high gear to make friday

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
When this ridge builds back north of Ike and slides east, which you can see happening via WV, I believe you'll see Ike hit the gas pedal.

[ROCK]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

I don't know man, zooming in on that (not hi res) It sure looks half way between Matagorda and Freeport.. even closer to freeport heading North through that area. Maybe one of these guys will post a super secrect hi res image of the landfall point

try this....


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA072.gif


looks aweful close to Freeport.....

[Stratosphere747]

[Stormcenter]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

not sure something doesnt look right with that run...I wouldnt put to much into it.....b/c we all know the EURO rocks!!


NHC has no choice but to shift the track slightly north now...

They always have a choice.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ike is starting to remind me of another famous September Hurricane...



The final track and landfall strength of Ike may wind up being pretty darn close to what happened 108 years ago, IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Air Force Met]

12z EURO is nearly the same as 0z....Looks like Matagorda.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

EDIT: put it on 00....Why did EURO initialize Ike over Western Cuba?

Euro is not the same. Last run was W Matagorda bay. This run is over central Matagorda county.