ATL: IKE Discussion

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

That was 946 millibars in the northwest quad. The 940 earlier was not from the same quadrant.

So, erm what does that mean? Again I'm a Noob at all this...

It doesn't mean anything. Like I said above your post they get the pressure reading from the center of the system. In a organized system there should be only one center. In a disorganized tropical storm or depression you could have multiple centers rotating around a larger center but not in Hurricanes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was 946 millibars in the northwest quad. The 940 earlier was not from the same quadrant.

So, erm what does that mean? Again I'm a Noob at all this...

It means that there is one center and the pressure they found is higher then the last plane report of the pressure. Meaning the inner eye is weaking now...Looking at 85h shows a very very messy outter eyewall, so I would not expect any strengthing, I would not be suprized as the inner eye wall weakens, that this system weakens to around 75-80 knots. We will have to see how the outter eye wall forms over the next 12-18 hours....

Once it forms and contracts then expect strengthing then.

[bob rulz]

That was 946 millibars in the northwest quad. The 940 earlier was not from the same quadrant.

So, erm what does that mean? Again I'm a Noob at all this...

Not sure what you're confused about but the 946 millibar pressure was reported in the northwestern quadrant, but an earlier recon pass found a lower pressure in a different quadrant of the hurricane so it may not have sampled the lowest pressure yet.

EDIT: Of course, the lowest pressure is supposed to be in the CENTER, not one of the quadrants. Which is why his post confused me too?

[I-wall]

Does anyone know when the updated forecast track comes out? Is it 5 am eastern time? Also, any idea on what the latest model runs looked like? I'm trying to figure out if the forecast will shift further east again. Thanks.

[Melly]

Oh they just said its slowed down to 7mph is that bad? Doesn't the more it stay in the water, the more it can grow?

[Duddy]

Does anyone know when the updated forecast track comes out? Is it 5 am eastern time? Also, any idea on what the latest model runs looked like? I'm trying to figure out if the forecast will shift further east again. Thanks.

The model consensus is still Matagorda. The GFDL takes it to Galveston and the southern most model says Port O'Conner. The rest are in between those two.

[bob rulz]

Does anyone know when the updated forecast track comes out? Is it 5 am eastern time? Also, any idea on what the latest model runs looked like? I'm trying to figure out if the forecast will shift further east again. Thanks.

Yes, forecast tracks are updated at every main 6-hour advisory (5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm) but not at intermediate advisories, although they are updated in any special advisory that is issued.

As for models there is a model thread on this forum that will have all of the latest model tracks (I believe).

And welcome to Storm2k!

[Duddy]

Oh they just said its slowed down to 7mph is that bad? Doesn't the more it stay in the water, the more it can grow?

1AM advisory says 9MPH. WNW.

[Sean in New Orleans]

So far it is faithfully following the NHC forecast...it's at the end of the forecast that I have concerns and doubts. Right now it doesn't appear to be exploding. Ike is holding his own, though. Tomorrow will be the most telling day thus far.

[Nexus]

A G-13 image from a bit ago (05:32UTC), low res but something:

[Melly]

That was 946 millibars in the northwest quad. The 940 earlier was not from the same quadrant.

So, erm what does that mean? Again I'm a Noob at all this...

Not sure what you're confused about but the 946 millibar pressure was reported in the northwestern quadrant, but an earlier recon pass found a lower pressure in a different quadrant of the hurricane so it may not have sampled the lowest pressure yet.

EDIT: Of course, the lowest pressure is supposed to be in the CENTER, not one of the quadrants. Which is why his post confused me too?

Well I know nothing about the pressures, Rita was the first Hurricane I have ever been through, and I just had a baby so I just went with the flow, and Humberto just snuck up on us so I didn't really get to get much involved in that either.

[Melly]

Oh they just said its slowed down to 7mph is that bad? Doesn't the more it stay in the water, the more it can grow?

1AM advisory says 9MPH. WNW.

Where do you see that? The Weather Channel just said "7 MPH" and that it was on the 2am Advisory.

[artist]

Can someone tell me how to interpret this set from recon?

052100 2540N 08809W 6967 03040 9911 +100 +060 044062 063 047 006 00

The important columns for info for you -
1st column is time, second and third are the lat/longitude of the reading, next 2 not important to us, 6th column is barometric pressure within that portion of the storm (if it is 1002.3 then it would read 0023), 7th & 8th are air temp and dew point respectively. 9th is wind direction in degrees as well as the first fl level wind speed such as the one bolded above - 2250 is wind direction, the 47 is 47 knots at flight level - 30 second average. The 10th column is the 10 second average, 11th column is the surface winds per on board radar ( these are often incorrect and suspect if they are higher than the flight level winds found and will have a 999 next to them stating they are suspect. The flight level winds are anywhere from 10-15% higher than what is assumed to be at the surface. It depends on their flying height within the storm. If you follow the recon thread they usually will post what the reduction is.
This is what I sent to someone else. The numbers are different. Just fill in the ones from the line you posted.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Welcome to the board, I-Wall. I like your name! That is a New Orleans term!

[Duddy]

Oh they just said its slowed down to 7mph is that bad? Doesn't the more it stay in the water, the more it can grow?

1AM advisory says 9MPH. WNW.

Where do you see that? The Weather Channel just said "7 MPH" and that it was on the 2am Advisory.

Directly from the source, the National Hurricane Center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0558.shtml

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...495 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.

[bob rulz]

Well I know nothing about the pressures, Rita was the first Hurricane I have ever been through, and I just had a baby so I just went with the flow, and Humberto just snuck up on us so I didn't really get to get much involved in that either.

Lower pressures = higher wind speeds usually, and usually storms with a pressure this low have much higher wind speeds than this. The outer eyewall that the storm has is robbing convection from the center of the storm, thus making it harder to strengthen. The pressure suggests that if the storm can consolidate into a single eyewall that it will rapidly intensify, but that's yet to happen.

At least that's how I understand it.

[I-wall]

Oh they just said its slowed down to 7mph is that bad? Doesn't the more it stay in the water, the more it can grow?

1AM advisory says 9MPH. WNW.

Where do you see that? The Weather Channel just said "7 MPH" and that it was on the 2am Advisory.

You wanna check the National Hurricane Center for the latest information. Here's a link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[I-wall]

Welcome to the board, I-Wall. I like your name! That is a New Orleans term!

Thanks for the warm welcome!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Possible squalls for New Orleans morning rush hour: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

[Melly]

1AM advisory says 9MPH. WNW.

Where do you see that? The Weather Channel just said "7 MPH" and that it was on the 2am Advisory.[/quote]

You wanna check the National Hurricane Center for the latest information. Here's a link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml[/quote]

Ah thanks...