x-y-no wrote:TexasStorm wrote:Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.
I don't understand what basis there can be for saying that. It may happen, given the anomalously low winds Ike has so far, but unless one understands
why Ike has anomalously low winds I'm not seeing a basis for thinking this will continue.
If the core tightens, the winds will go up. If not, they may not. I have no idea which one will obtain, so I'd say the prudent thing is to plan for the former and hope for the latter.
I think that in the past, large hurricanes that struggle with poorly-formed cores can maintain low pressures alongside low wind speeds. Opal did not have a very good core, for example.
Wilma's was huge, but it was strongly affected by the loop current. Gilbert's completely collapsed before it underwent RI. It may just take one of the two events for Ike to settle down and intensify. Those chances for this storm are hopefully diminishing.