ATL: IKE Discussion

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Stormcenter
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Re:

#9061 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:13 am

Steve wrote:>>OK, so is Ike stalling? I need accurate info, not what someone thinks.

:?:

Why even post this. Run a loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


Because it seems like we always have to have one these "stall" posts everyday with every storm. I don't know.
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#9062 Postby fasterdisaster » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:13 am

Does anyone have the latest microwave imagery to show the outer eyewall currently compared to the inner eyewall?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9063 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:14 am

Could Ike be a Category 3 hurricane? In all probabilities yes. It could even be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Of course I do not think it will make landfall as a Category 4/5 hurricane, but it could happen. Hurricanes that have made landfall on Texas have strengthened at the last minute. Also, tomorrow last year, we had Hurricane Humberto. Talk about eery coinicidence.
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Re: Re:

#9064 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:14 am

x-y-no wrote:
TexasStorm wrote:Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.


I don't understand what basis there can be for saying that. It may happen, given the anomalously low winds Ike has so far, but unless one understands why Ike has anomalously low winds I'm not seeing a basis for thinking this will continue.

If the core tightens, the winds will go up. If not, they may not. I have no idea which one will obtain, so I'd say the prudent thing is to plan for the former and hope for the latter.


I think that in the past, large hurricanes that struggle with poorly-formed cores can maintain low pressures alongside low wind speeds. Opal did not have a very good core, for example.

Wilma's was huge, but it was strongly affected by the loop current. Gilbert's completely collapsed before it underwent RI. It may just take one of the two events for Ike to settle down and intensify. Those chances for this storm are hopefully diminishing.
Last edited by HurricaneRobert on Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9065 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:16 am

jinftl wrote:slope of coastline a factor too....some areas like the MS coast are very vulnerable, compared to an area like southeast florida...same storm would not produce same surge in Biloxi and Miami


Very true. Areas with lots of shallow water are more prone to storm surge, like around Mississippi. Miami has deeper waters, so less prone to storm surge, but higher waves are a problem for them.
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#9066 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:17 am

Traffic is bumper to bumper and inching out of Beaumont. We're packed and ready to go, but waiting to see if the traffic lets up.... or Ike dies.

A caller into KFDM was evacuating from Sabine Pass and said that water was already covering the road on Hwy. 87.

Jasper is supposedly already out of gas, so anyone going north through Jasper, stop and see if you can get gas before you get there.
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#9067 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:18 am

Lacking "really" deep convection near center. Will be hard to intensify short term.
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#9068 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:19 am

Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9069 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:20 am

More organized? I can't tell what this is showing. A litle over 2 hours old at time of posting.

Image
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9070 Postby smw1981 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:20 am

To my very, very untrained eyes, it looks like Ike is moving almost due west at this moment. I definitely could be wrong...can anyone else see what I am saying?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
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Re:

#9071 Postby carversteve » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:21 am

TexasStorm wrote:Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.

And you have facts based on what???
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9072 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:23 am

Is the size of Ike is a potential limiting factor for strengthening...esp. rapid strengthening...if he doesn't start to draw in some of the energy to a core center?

Ike could overcome this limiting factor and develop a strong center core but i wonder if the fact that ike became such a large hurricane as a cat 1 and then Cat 2 is different than a scenario where he quickly moved off of cuba, became a cat 4, and then windfield spread out to the curent size.
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Re: Re:

#9073 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:24 am

carversteve wrote:
TexasStorm wrote:Doubting Ike gets back up to Cat 3. It has enough energy to sustain Cat 2 until landfall but I bet the NHC will start forecasting it tonight as a Cat 2 at landfall instead of the Cat 3 they are forecasting now.

And you have facts based on what???


The statement from NOAA plane stating that they could not find anything to justify current intensity of 85Kts at the surface, would be a start and 18+ hours of trying to get its act together...

Just kidding, it could be a 1,2 or 3 at landfall. I would hope that Cat 4 didnt come into play.
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Re:

#9074 Postby micktooth » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:24 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.


What do you think the big difference is between '08 and '05? It seems like almost every storm bombed out in '05, land or no land, Katrina for example.
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Re:

#9075 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:24 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.



Georges is great example Weatherfreak000.
Let's just hope he stays this way or even weakens some.
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Re: Re:

#9076 Postby jinftl » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:26 am

Maybe more land interaction preventing development in 2008? Cuba has been an ally to the U.S. this season whether it knows it or not!

Areas outside of the U.S. have been hit by majors...Cuba, Turks & Caicos...so it might be more of why U.S. landmass question.

micktooth wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.


What do you think the big difference is between '08 and '05? It seems like almost every storm bombed out in '05, land or no land, Katrina for example.
Last edited by jinftl on Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9077 Postby survived alica » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:26 am

Hurricanes usually intensify close to the texas coast right? I remember Alica did and another storm I can't remember which one. could Ike do the same?
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Weatherfreak000

Re: Re:

#9078 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:26 am

micktooth wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.


What do you think the big difference is between '08 and '05? It seems like almost every storm bombed out in '05, land or no land, Katrina for example.


Record low pressures, shear and ridiculously easy High SST's.
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Re:

#9079 Postby Windy » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:26 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Yep...Gustav and Ike proved to me one important lesson in 2008.

Hurricanes that spend time over land rarely recover. The lesson remains true today as it was when Georges did this...

The core has been over the GOM for 36 hours...passed the Loop Current...and still cannot organize a nice core. It's incredible.


Barely recover? Do you see the pressure on Ike? It's plenty recovered, it's just now enormously unwound instead of curled up tight. I guess it depends on your definition of "recover". Is it a 150 mile wide storm with a 10 mile wide swath of tornado-like winds? No. But a 500 mile wide storm with a 150 to 200 mile wide swath of hurricane force winds is, in my opinion, "recovered".
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#9080 Postby fasterdisaster » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:28 am

tolakram wrote:More organized? I can't tell what this is showing. A litle over 2 hours old at time of posting.

Image


This shows the outer eyewall is almost the sole eyewall now but it also shows the openness on the northwest. I'd say 6 hours of keeping this strength, followed by maybe several hours of light strengthening and after that it should be able to strengthen considerably based on all indications once dry air and shear let up.
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