ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Advisory says winds still at 90kts but this was probably done before the latest recon mission has come through which has shown winds of 114kts at flight level, which does not translate to 90kts but more like 100kts...

maybe a special adv. soon?

-lester

Maybe, but as the NHC even state it really isn't going to make much if any difference to what is going to happen now, if people haven't got out of Galveston then they are just foolish.

Waters really are rising well now, surge still hasn't really ramped up yet according to the model...wave still splashing over the sea wall, won't be long before some of these waves splash over the other side as well.

[pablolopez26]

I took this shot from my TV this morning to show people that Ike is not playing around.

[WxGuy1]

"I don't mean to beat this topic into the ground, but I talked about it the last few days. What ended up happening was that Wilma is positioned under the right entrance region of a very potent jet streak located north to the storm. This is a very divergent portion of the jet and helped to establish a strong outflow channel to the north.

In addition, the storm's increase in forward speed helped to mitigate any shear since the storm was moving relative to the mean wind flow.

Dr. Lyons is talking about upper-level divergence that would enhance upward motion. Note that there are two ways (well, there are many more, but we'll mention only two here) to get upper-level divergence -- ageostrophic curvature divergence and ageostrophic divergence associated with the intertial-advective term. The former represent divergence that is east of a trough axis and west of a ridge axis (in the northern hemisphere). So, if you have a trough to the west, there will be some upper-level divergence (maximized, typically, at the inflection point between the trough and ridge). The 2nd force as play is associated with jet sreaks; the right-entrance and left-exit regions of upper-level jet streaks are typically characterized by upper-level divergence and upward motion.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Duration of hurricane, and even gale force, winds is a lot more important than how strong the peak sustained winds in the small area around the eye is to over all wide spread damage.

[Aristotle]

Advisory says winds still at 90kts but this was probably done before the latest recon mission has come through which has shown winds of 114kts at flight level, which does not translate to 90kts but more like 100kts...

maybe a special adv. soon?

-lester

Maybe, but as the NHC even state it really isn't going to make much if any difference to what is going to happen now, if people haven't got out of Galveston then they are just foolish.

Waters really are rising well now, surge still hasn't really ramped up yet according to the model...wave still splashing over the sea wall, won't be long before some of these waves splash over the other side as well.

BTW what your seeing right now is simply Wave Setup. Not Surge. Simply Wave setup there is not a surge yet at all in Galveston. So look out!

[AZRainman]

...people need to stop looking a cat 2 IKE and start seeing 20ft+ surge. folks inland away from the water should be fine.

S2k Members are plenty aware, but I doubt these holdout folks came here to see the storm surge maps I been posting all night and chat with the weather geeks:
Texas holdouts urge Hurricane Ike to "bring it on!" Reuters





More here

[shah8]

It's a big storm when hurricane force winds are larger in radius than the error cone out to 72 hours.

[jinftl]

Ike has been trying in some way to do this for days now....he has made it from cuba across the entire gulf...and the surge reflects this...but luckily the max winds are not as bad as they could be. i don't see a massive increase in winds taking place as he closes in on land...he is butting against the north american continent, not an island in the bahamas. soon, more and more of his circulation will be over land that is not swampy, close to another water source, etc. A cat 3 is still possible but at this point, that should not result in much of the way of additional preparation since a cat 4+ surge has been warned of for over a day and people inland should be ready for more likely than not Cat1/Cat2 conditions...even if landfall is at a Cat 3.

The latest discussion says that Ike has no organized inner core...but to this amateur it looks like he is trying to wrap around a MASSIVE eye wall from the remnants of all the others. Not typical hurricane dynamics, but Ike has never really been typical in the GOM.

[KWT]

BTW what your seeing right now is simply Wave Setup. Not Surge. Simply Wave setup there is not a surge yet at all in Galveston. So look out!

Well there is a little bit of surge but its no more then 4-5ft at the moment, still got a lot more to build up yet, Slosh model suggest 16.7ft for Galveston, pretty much oversplling the sea wall.

[jinftl]

that last wobble to the nw is good for galveston if we can get a heading more like that....compared to the heading in the prior plot points. east of galveston bay is better for them.

[cpdaman]

don't attack me for bringing up the possibililty but i truly hope all those tie rods that hold the sea wall together are all very functionable throughout the storm

portions of sea walls can fail during storms, all it takes is a weak link or two, i am not saying this to SCARE people, but to get them to understand the potential for high water rises above just a few feet in parts of galveston.

i think the high tide around 230 pm will function as a nice wake up call to the people who have not gotten out of galveston, when they see the overwash which iMo will make the coastal road flooded out , while the storm is still appox 12 hours away from landfall (or another full high tide cycle away) , i HOPE they begin to understand this surge will be comparable with some of the highest surge the area has been hit by, god forbid this strengthens on the way in to the coast.

[vbhoutex]

I heard on the TV this morning that they have told residents in Houston to shelter in place and not evacuate. Can this be correct???

Yes it is correct. We have millions of residents that are not in surge zones. The people in the surge zones need to get out now if they haven't as the surge is already starting. The winds will not be fun, but the surge is not survivable in the areas under mandatory evacuation.

Current reports of: Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

Obtaind from Harris County EM

[jinftl]

i would have thought everything being said by officials, media, etc for days would have been a wake-up call. It has been a wake-up for those who have gone to a safe location, even if that is 10 miles inland. For those who have not, they are not going to be looking or listening....esp if they wouldn't even go to a local shelter. I pray those people are changing their minds in the time that is left to get out of the surge.

don't attack me for bringing up the possibililty but i truly hope all those tie rods that hold the sea wall together are all very functionable throughout the storm

portions of sea walls can fail during storms, all it takes is a weak link or two, i am not saying this to SCARE people, but to get them to understand the potential for high water rises above just a few feet in parts of galveston.

i think the high tide around 230 pm will function as a nice wake up call to the people who have not gotten out of galveston, when they see the overwash which iMo will make the coastal road flooded out , while the storm is still appox 12 hours away from landfall (or another full high tide cycle away) , i HOPE they begin to understand this surge will be comparable with some of the highest surge the area has been hit by, god forbid this strengthens on the way in to the coast.

[HURAKAN]

More flooding:



Link: http://www.gcoem.org/content/view/31/146/

[Aristotle]

Ike has been trying in some way to do this for days now....he has made it from cuba across the entire gulf...and the surge reflects this...but luckily the max winds are not as bad as they could be. i don't see a massive increase in winds taking place as he closes in on land...he is butting against the north american continent, not an island in the bahamas. soon, more and more of his circulation will be over land that is not swampy, close to another water source, etc. A cat 3 is still possible but at this point, that should not result in much of the way of additional preparation since a cat 4+ surge has been warned of for over a day and people inland should be ready for more likely than not Cat1/Cat2 conditions...even if landfall is at a Cat 3.

The latest discussion says that Ike has no organized inner core...but to this amateur it looks like he is trying to wrap around a MASSIVE eye wall from the remnants of all the others. Not typical hurricane dynamics, but Ike has never really been typical in the GOM.

I think what you have to remember about this going to a Cat 3 (if it does). Remember they are keeping it a cat 2 even thought the surface winds don't justify Cat 2 strength. We saw SL winds at around 60 and 70 mph. If this becomes a justifiable CAT 3 with CAT 3 SL winds. That represents a huge jump. Just from the stand point of last night! Am I right?

[physicx07]

BTW what your seeing right now is simply Wave Setup. Not Surge. Simply Wave setup there is not a surge yet at all in Galveston. So look out![/quote]

There definitely is surge already at Galveston Pleasure Pier. Look at the tide gauge website here. We are at 6 feet above normal tide levels (normal tide is around +1ft right now, so 7 total):

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quickl ... a/IKE.html

[KWT]

jinftl, looks like Ike is bang on track, the systems center looks like coming right into Galveston directly if the current motion holds.

[vbhoutex]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

[smw1981]

I've got to say, the NHC nailed this one a few days ago. It pretty much nailed Gustav a few days before LF too. Before these past two storms, I was not much of a believer in the NHC 3-day cone...however, I am now.

That being said, there has been plenty of time for people in Galveston to evacuate, and it is sad to think of all the people who saw a Cat 2 coming their way and decided to stay not knowing the surge potential with this storm. This would be why S2k is such a valuable resource when a hurricane is bearing down on you!

[jinftl]

Is that why people have stayed? They don't really think it is even a Cat 2...that the NHC is inflating it somehow?

AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

What you say is in total contradiction to the NHC....they are not trying to fool us into thinking an upgrade to a cat 3 is not as big a deal as you say when they state. Maybe this is what is at issue...people are not taking the NHC and their advisories at face value?

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.

Ike has been trying in some way to do this for days now....he has made it from cuba across the entire gulf...and the surge reflects this...but luckily the max winds are not as bad as they could be. i don't see a massive increase in winds taking place as he closes in on land...he is butting against the north american continent, not an island in the bahamas. soon, more and more of his circulation will be over land that is not swampy, close to another water source, etc. A cat 3 is still possible but at this point, that should not result in much of the way of additional preparation since a cat 4+ surge has been warned of for over a day and people inland should be ready for more likely than not Cat1/Cat2 conditions...even if landfall is at a Cat 3.

The latest discussion says that Ike has no organized inner core...but to this amateur it looks like he is trying to wrap around a MASSIVE eye wall from the remnants of all the others. Not typical hurricane dynamics, but Ike has never really been typical in the GOM.

I think what you have to remember about this going to a Cat 3 (if it does). Remember they are keeping it a cat 2 even thought the surface winds don't justify Cat 2 strength. We saw SL winds at around 60 and 70 mph. If this becomes a justifiable CAT 3 with CAT 3 SL winds. That represents a huge jump. Just from the stand point of last night! Am I right?