ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

The wild card is up the road from Galveston towards Port Arthur. They could be taking the worst beating....TWC graphic showed that as main 'red' area of structural damage risk from Galveston to P.A.

[tolakram]

Not a forecast

[johngaltfla]

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the strongest winds are to the east of the eye. They wont move onshore for a few more hours

Yup, and the storm's eye is contracting right at landfall. Great forecasts Derek. Thanks for all your hard work this season.

[capepoint]

Goodnight. You guys in Texas PLEASE be carefull, and good luck.

[fasterdisaster]

Not a forecast

Looks like the east wobble wasn't enough to save Galveston Bay.

[soonertwister]

So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

In the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, scores of bodies were being washed ashore daily in the days after the hurricane, and dozens a day for weeks afterward.

[Aristotle]

Guys the water will be the highest around high tide, which is 2-3 hours from now. Also, I'm not sure they're completely into the eye yet based on the last radar imagery although it looks close.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Unfortunately, high tide is going to be right when the reverse surge could hit.

Unfortunately? Hmm whats the danger in high tide arriving at reverse surge? I don't understand?

[tolakram]

Another north wobble, thankfully. I'm off to bed, good luck and stay safe.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

I got it spot on again! I have to admit, I doubted myself with this fickle system. In all seriousness, sincere prayers from me for those from Galveston to SW Louisiana. Godspeed. You're going to make it with a few bruises, but, you're going to make it. God Bless!

[fasterdisaster]

Does anyone know where they're showing the huge flooding on TWC right now?

[mathwhizz]

When you average out the wobbles. It looks like the eye will go right over Galveston and Houston. It's right on the National Hurricane Center track.

[mtm4319]

There is very little development on the coast east of the Bolivar Peninsula, right up to Sabine Pass. We probably won't know whether any cat-3 winds hit because of this (just as Wilma might have been cat-4, but no one lives in the Everglades).

[jinftl]

Is there a seawall on east end of Galveston or on Bolivar Peninsulaa? They may have worst surge.

[jimguru]

So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

In the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, scores of bodies were being washed ashore daily in the days after the hurricane, and dozens a day for weeks afterward.

I sincerely hope someone down there has thought about that possible scenario. - God help those people that stayed.....

[superfly]

His eye is contracting like crazy right at the last minute. Going off radar alone, I've seen worse looking 115 mph storms, wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade in the TCR.

Nothing to support an upgrade.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it may hold because that sea wall was made by people that could make it as strong as they wanted. No standard at the time to make it weaker or make it out of weak stuff...This sea wall is much much stronger then what New orleans has. I don't expect it to burst, maybe water will come over the top, but I don't think it will bust. Gods hand is also helping to enforce it.

[jinftl]

better he become a major in area of little development....less overall damage there than to the south

There is very little development on the coast east of the Bolivar Peninsula, right up to Sabine Pass. We probably won't know whether any cat-3 winds hit because of this (just as Wilma might have been cat-4, but no one lives in the Everglades).

[Aristotle]

I wonder how that lady that owns the poop deck is doing.

Lol that kid that was there said that the humidity over the gulf make the Hurricane dispisipate! With the emphasis.

[bighaben]

I think I just had my first TS force gust!! Wow! Having never been through a hurricane that was quite scary, and quite exciting at the same time! It's going to be like that all the time in a few hours, it's going to be quite interesting.

I believe all Galveston has on it's east side is a large(ish) drainage basin that extends some ways in land, thought not by much.

[lost cause]

So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

In the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, scores of bodies were being washed ashore daily in the days after the hurricane, and dozens a day for weeks afterward.

What you're describing happened during the days after The Storm when tide and surf were at their normal (combined with the fact that the "dead gangs" were dumping bodies on barges that took them out to sea).

There was, according to both Isaac and Joseph Cline (as well as other survivors), a reversal of the surge after the eye passed over the city. This was prob'ly a reverse surge from Galveston Bay as the wind directions changed.