ATL: IKE Discussion

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jinftl
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12481 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:03 am

The wild card is up the road from Galveston towards Port Arthur. They could be taking the worst beating....TWC graphic showed that as main 'red' area of structural damage risk from Galveston to P.A.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12482 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:03 am

Not a forecast
Image
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Re: Re:

#12483 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:03 am

Derek Ortt wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:---


the strongest winds are to the east of the eye. They wont move onshore for a few more hours


Yup, and the storm's eye is contracting right at landfall. Great forecasts Derek. Thanks for all your hard work this season.
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#12484 Postby capepoint » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:04 am

Goodnight. You guys in Texas PLEASE be carefull, and good luck.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12485 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:04 am

tolakram wrote:Not a forecast
Image


Looks like the east wobble wasn't enough to save Galveston Bay. :(
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12486 Postby soonertwister » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:05 am

jimguru wrote:So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

In the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, scores of bodies were being washed ashore daily in the days after the hurricane, and dozens a day for weeks afterward.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12487 Postby Aristotle » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:05 am

fasterdisaster wrote:
Jijenji wrote:Guys the water will be the highest around high tide, which is 2-3 hours from now. Also, I'm not sure they're completely into the eye yet based on the last radar imagery although it looks close.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no


Unfortunately, high tide is going to be right when the reverse surge could hit. :cry:


Unfortunately? Hmm whats the danger in high tide arriving at reverse surge? I don't understand?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12488 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:05 am

Another north wobble, thankfully. I'm off to bed, good luck and stay safe.

Image
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Re:

#12489 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:05 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

I got it spot on again! I have to admit, I doubted myself with this fickle system. In all seriousness, sincere prayers from me for those from Galveston to SW Louisiana. Godspeed. You're going to make it with a few bruises, but, you're going to make it. God Bless!
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#12490 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:05 am

Does anyone know where they're showing the huge flooding on TWC right now?
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#12491 Postby mathwhizz » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:05 am

When you average out the wobbles. It looks like the eye will go right over Galveston and Houston. It's right on the National Hurricane Center track.
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#12492 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:06 am

There is very little development on the coast east of the Bolivar Peninsula, right up to Sabine Pass. We probably won't know whether any cat-3 winds hit because of this (just as Wilma might have been cat-4, but no one lives in the Everglades).
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12493 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:06 am

Is there a seawall on east end of Galveston or on Bolivar Peninsulaa? They may have worst surge.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12494 Postby jimguru » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:07 am

soonertwister wrote:
jimguru wrote:So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

In the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, scores of bodies were being washed ashore daily in the days after the hurricane, and dozens a day for weeks afterward.



I sincerely hope someone down there has thought about that possible scenario. - God help those people that stayed.....
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superfly

Re:

#12495 Postby superfly » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:07 am

fasterdisaster wrote:His eye is contracting like crazy right at the last minute. Going off radar alone, I've seen worse looking 115 mph storms, wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade in the TCR.


Nothing to support an upgrade.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12496 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:07 am

I think it may hold because that sea wall was made by people that could make it as strong as they wanted. No standard at the time to make it weaker or make it out of weak stuff...This sea wall is much much stronger then what New orleans has. I don't expect it to burst, maybe water will come over the top, but I don't think it will bust. Gods hand is also helping to enforce it.
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Re:

#12497 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:08 am

better he become a major in area of little development....less overall damage there than to the south

mtm4319 wrote:There is very little development on the coast east of the Bolivar Peninsula, right up to Sabine Pass. We probably won't know whether any cat-3 winds hit because of this (just as Wilma might have been cat-4, but no one lives in the Everglades).
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12498 Postby Aristotle » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:09 am

I wonder how that lady that owns the poop deck is doing.

Lol that kid that was there said that the humidity over the gulf make the Hurricane dispisipate! With the emphasis.

:D
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bighaben
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12499 Postby bighaben » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:09 am

I think I just had my first TS force gust!! Wow! Having never been through a hurricane that was quite scary, and quite exciting at the same time! It's going to be like that all the time in a few hours, it's going to be quite interesting.

I believe all Galveston has on it's east side is a large(ish) drainage basin that extends some ways in land, thought not by much.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12500 Postby lost cause » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:10 am

soonertwister wrote:
jimguru wrote:So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

In the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, scores of bodies were being washed ashore daily in the days after the hurricane, and dozens a day for weeks afterward.


What you're describing happened during the days after The Storm when tide and surf were at their normal (combined with the fact that the "dead gangs" were dumping bodies on barges that took them out to sea).

There was, according to both Isaac and Joseph Cline (as well as other survivors), a reversal of the surge after the eye passed over the city. This was prob'ly a reverse surge from Galveston Bay as the wind directions changed.
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