ATL: IKE Discussion

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superfly

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12541 Postby superfly » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:35 am

jimguru wrote:Any idea when the eyewall will hit metro Houston?


Don't think it will, the western eyewall will likely miss to the east with the latest N jog.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12542 Postby soonertwister » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:36 am

jimguru wrote:Any idea when the eyewall will hit metro Houston?


The northern eyewall is already in southern metro, and should pass the downtown area within the next 1-2 hours. It looks pretty mellow downtown right now, but that's just the calm before all hell breaks loose.

Anyone on the street in downtown during the peak will have a low life expectancy.
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#12543 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:36 am

Bettes is estimating 110-115mph gusts right now in Clear Lake.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#12544 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:37 am

I dont see why the NHC doesnt call this a cat 3. Its one mile per hour short at the surface. We have cat 5 surge, and Houston will be dealing with cat 3 winds in the elevations. Cat 3 conditions wont be too isolated.
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#12545 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:37 am

True mtm, if the north wobble continues it will hit Bolivar peninsula, BUT we have to watch for another west wobble as that could happen as it's been alternating between due north and due west all night. If it goes due west or a little north it could still hit Galveston Island, on the current path though that wouldn't happen.
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#12546 Postby AZRainman » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:38 am

Image
Last edited by AZRainman on Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#12547 Postby CowboyFan » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:39 am

KFDM just reported that water is getting into homes in bridge city texas.... south of orange
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12548 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:39 am

superfly wrote:
jimguru wrote:Any idea when the eyewall will hit metro Houston?


Don't think it will, the western eyewall will likely miss to the east with the latest N jog.

Doubt it, it will likely do another WNW wobble before it passes north of Houston.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12549 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:39 am

Jason_B wrote:I don't see how 115mph would be out of the question, it's looking better on radar and IR...looks better than Katrina,Rita and Ivan were at landfall.


I think it may very well be 115... but then again, it may be for the better if it's kept a Cat 2. That way, after all is said and done, people will see that it does not take a "major" hurricane on the SS scale to cause extreme, widespread damage.
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Re:

#12550 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:40 am

AZRainman wrote:Image


Picture for the ages.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12551 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:41 am

The 109 knots would support 113 mph at the surface, in to back that up the 107 knot readings would support 110.7 mph at the surface. I think we have enough to upgrade.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12552 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:42 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The 109 knots would support 113 mph at the surface, in to back that up the 107 knot readings would support 110.7 mph at the surface. I think we have enough to upgrade.


I think they definitely should.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12553 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:42 am

Report from Heidi Farrar, who just got off the phone with storm chaser Jim Reed:


I just got off the phone with Reed. He says the winds are between calm and 10-MPH right now. Their hotel is 100 yards from the seawall and they now have at least a foot of water in the lobby. He says the surge is still coming up. The sky is getting pretty clear & they're trying to see if they can catch any stars between breaks in the clouds. He and Dave Holder were watching a gull that was struggling to stay in the air, obviously tired from (presumably) being caught in the storm.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12554 Postby soonertwister » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:42 am

superfly wrote:
jimguru wrote:Any idea when the eyewall will hit metro Houston?


Don't think it will, the western eyewall will likely miss to the east with the latest N jog.


There is no northern jog. If you look at the overall motion and don't fixate on the middle of it, it's going in the same direction it's been going for some time now. There's zero chance that downtown Houston is not going to get hit by eyewall winds.
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Re:

#12555 Postby NC George » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:43 am

fact789 wrote:I dont see why the NHC doesnt call this a cat 3. Its one mile per hour short at the surface. We have cat 5 surge, and Houston will be dealing with cat 3 winds in the elevations. Cat 3 conditions wont be too isolated.


We (here at the forum) get this question with every storm. My answer is: they have to draw the line somewhere. Kinda like where I work. We deliver to a certain distance, and we don't deliver any farther. We always get the house just beyond the line asking; you deliver just down the road, why not us? Because we have to draw the line somewhere. There is always that house just beyond the line, no matter where you draw it.

On a personal note, I think it may be better if they don't raise the category of the storm. This will show the damage that a category 2 storm can cause, and maybe next time people won't take a category 2 storm so lightly (dream on, I know.)
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12556 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:43 am

Still riding it out just west of Galveston Bay at the office. So far so good. Power out across most of the area but we have a generator. I think we lost one AC unit on the roof. It wasn't even attached to the roof. Probably rolling around up there. Server room AC still running or we'd be out of business. Winds gusting 65 kts now. Northern eyewall approaching. Been up for nearly 24 hours now and I have to work the day shift tomorrow. Might let the new guy handle the day shift duties.

From what I can see outside, it's just transformers blowing around the area. No sign of downed trees or anything. Worst should be in the next hour or so. Will try to get the hatch to the roof open if we get in the eye. Need to determine the status of our AC units.
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Re: Re:

#12557 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:44 am

NC George wrote:
fact789 wrote:I dont see why the NHC doesnt call this a cat 3. Its one mile per hour short at the surface. We have cat 5 surge, and Houston will be dealing with cat 3 winds in the elevations. Cat 3 conditions wont be too isolated.


We (here at the forum) get this question with every storm. My answer is: they have to draw the line somewhere. Kinda like where I work. We deliver to a certain distance, and we don't deliver any farther. We always get the house just beyond the line asking; you deliver just down the road, why not us? Because we have to draw the line somewhere. There is always that house just beyond the line, no matter where you draw it.

On a personal note, I think it may be better if they don't raise the category of the storm. This will show the damage that a category 2 storm can cause, and maybe next time people won't take a category 2 storm so lightly (dream on, I know.)


I don't. If it's a Category 3 then it's a category 3. There are no buts about it.
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#12558 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:45 am

Looks like the last frame has him going NW again.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12559 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:45 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The 109 knots would support 113 mph at the surface, in to back that up the 107 knot readings would support 110.7 mph at the surface. I think we have enough to upgrade.


The FL winds have been been reducing the way we usually see them. As far as I know, there have no been any SFMR or dropsonde (or sfc obs) measurements above 85 kts. Again, it's better to have SFC data than having to rely on guessing a wind reduction from FL when RECON has shown that the wind reduction is lower than 0.9 in those places where there are sfc observations. Hurricanes are rated according to maximum sustained wind speed. That's it. If the max sustained wind speeds are not at the Cat 3 level, then Ike will not (and should not!) be rated a Cat 3. Sure, the surge may be more reminiscient of a Cat 4 or 5, but that's not how hurricanes are rated.

Ike may make landfall E of Galveston. That island may have dodged the biggest bullet of all, though that's not to say that they dodge all bullets. Damage will be very high, but there is a massive difference between being in the rightward, on-shore flow side of the storm compared to the leftward, off-shore side of the storm. RECON is showing much weaker winds in the west side of the storm compared to the right side. It looks like the worst damage will be from the far eastern side of Bolivar peninsula to Port Arthur. No doubt lots of damage to Galveston and Houston, but not nearly as bad as it may have been.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#12560 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:47 am

Stranded Galveston residents call in vain for help

FTA:

City Manager Steve LeBlanc went so far as to ask the media not to photograph "certain things" in the aftermath, referring to the possibility of dead bodies.

Officials in Brazoria County said as many as 35 percent of residents in mandatory evacuation zones stayed behind, or about 67,000. That would put about 90,000 Texans in potentially surge-susceptible areas in the two counties.
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