Frank2 wrote:It's interesting that many areas did report high water for the past 24 hours or more, but, it seems that the water in many places did not rise that much higher, based on reporters who were camped out in those high water areas that did not have to move further inland as the storm passed...
The major areas where the reporters were located (Galveston, around Houston, etc) did not experience the right-front part of the Ike. As such, it is unlike that they saw the highest surge. The strongest winds and highest surge should have occurred from Port Arthur to the Bolivar peninsula.
From a meteorological point of view, things could have been worse for Galveston and Houston suburbs; these areas did NOT experience the worst that Ike had. From a loop at Google Maps, there is very little population in that area (other than High Island), so it will be a little difficult to get a grasp on just how bad Ike's worst wind/surge were. Ike turned NNW literally about 20-30 miles east enough to keep Galveston and Houston in the weaker Left-of-center part of the storm. Galveston did not dodge a bullet, except when speaking from a meteorological point of view (in that they did NOT experience the worst wind and surge that Ike did produce northeast of Galveston).
At landfall, RECON found a relatively large swath of 80-90 kt sustained surface winds just offshore between the Bol. peninsula and Port Arthur. A dropsonde recorded 118 kts at ~360 m (925 mb) ENE of High Island.
Regardless, Ike certainly would have been a Cat 3 or Cat 4 if it had another 24 hours over water. Ike was finally becoming significantly better organized from ~12 hours before landfall right up and through landfall.