ATL: IKE Discussion

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WxGuy1
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Re:

#12901 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:36 am

Frank2 wrote:It's interesting that many areas did report high water for the past 24 hours or more, but, it seems that the water in many places did not rise that much higher, based on reporters who were camped out in those high water areas that did not have to move further inland as the storm passed...


The major areas where the reporters were located (Galveston, around Houston, etc) did not experience the right-front part of the Ike. As such, it is unlike that they saw the highest surge. The strongest winds and highest surge should have occurred from Port Arthur to the Bolivar peninsula.

From a meteorological point of view, things could have been worse for Galveston and Houston suburbs; these areas did NOT experience the worst that Ike had. From a loop at Google Maps, there is very little population in that area (other than High Island), so it will be a little difficult to get a grasp on just how bad Ike's worst wind/surge were. Ike turned NNW literally about 20-30 miles east enough to keep Galveston and Houston in the weaker Left-of-center part of the storm. Galveston did not dodge a bullet, except when speaking from a meteorological point of view (in that they did NOT experience the worst wind and surge that Ike did produce northeast of Galveston).

At landfall, RECON found a relatively large swath of 80-90 kt sustained surface winds just offshore between the Bol. peninsula and Port Arthur. A dropsonde recorded 118 kts at ~360 m (925 mb) ENE of High Island.

Regardless, Ike certainly would have been a Cat 3 or Cat 4 if it had another 24 hours over water. Ike was finally becoming significantly better organized from ~12 hours before landfall right up and through landfall.
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:42 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12902 Postby I-wall » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:36 am

southerngale wrote:After being up all night and only a couple of hours of sleep the previous 2 nights, I finally slept some this morning. Anyway, just now hearing about damage where I live.

The city of Beaumont experienced storm surge in some areas. There are unconfirmed reports of several tornadoes that struck Beaumont. There are downed trees, downed and hanging power lines, structural damage to homes and businesses. There is no power anywhere in the area. Reports of trees through homes, roofs blown off, etc.

Orange County has experienced significant storm surge damage with some people reported to be trapped in their homes. Downtown Orange is experiencing storm surge flooding. Bridge City in particular has reports of high water in some homes with citizens needing assistance. They have downed trees, power lines, some structural damage to businesses and homes, windows blown out, etc.

Unconfirmed report that "Port Arthur is under water" but the levees held, so I don't know how much, to what extent, etc.

My friend's FIL works for Entergy. We can hope, but he told her, "you're looking at about a month, 3 to 4 weeks range"

Everything I'm hearing about the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area... much worse than I expected. :(


I'm so sorry to hear that. I have a lot of family and friends that live in Beaumont, Mauriceville, Orange, and Bridge City. This is going to be a tough time for southeast Texas. My thoughts go out to everyone that was affected by this monster. :(
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12903 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:39 am

Enzo Aquarius wrote:
HurricaneRobert wrote:A fifth of the nation's oil refining capacity has been shut down, so I would not be surprised if gas jumps to $5-6 dollars per gallon.


Reports are saying it already has, and I thought the 13 cent jump to $1.36 was bad here in Canada. :(


I think the high prices are local, but it'll spread to the rest of ya'll soon enough.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12904 Postby Time Traveller » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:40 am

Local Houston news just showed large boats all over some Galveston roads. In the middle of the road. Big cruisers.
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#12905 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:43 am

Just a bit of advice from Florida - after Wilma about 4 million were without power, but, to FPL's credit and the many that assisted them, about half were back on line after 3-5 days, and, the remaining over the next two weeks, so, it'll come - it just takes time...

Frank
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#12906 Postby jasons2k » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:43 am

ok here - no power - trees down in neighborhood but not at my house fortunately - more l8r
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12907 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:44 am

i agree with wxguy1 that galveston did not dodge a bullet by any means but it would have worse if the storm was 30 miles west....how much worse is my question and could probably be answered by looking at the areas 15 -30 miles east of galveston

i also question the accuracy of the surge predictions, i wonder if the eye did move 30 miles west of galveston wether the surge would have been say....16 feet instead of 13 and still thankfully not the 20-25 that was forecast.

I'm glad everyone on the board in texas seems to be safe and ok.......

also in fairness to Geraldo, when his assistant first was reporting the wind gusts of 120 or so, he said those must be wrong, but then sheppard at the desk ...chimed in and said the NHC is "saying sustained winds of 110 mph with higher gusts should be moving into your area"..so then geraldo pretty much had to drop his argument regardless of the likely fact it was right. I must say the guy has some cajones, he was leaning up against a palm tree during the heigh of the storm and everyone was just waiting for him to get washed away.....thankfully the surge appeared to be 10 feet less than forecast for the area.
Last edited by cpdaman on Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#12908 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:47 am

HURAKAN wrote:Wow, as expected the damage in Galveston is severe. KHOU was showing a report from the east part of the island and it looks really bad.


Figured that, unfortunately. The media's all "oh it wasn't that bad" like they always are.

That being said, I do not think Galveston proper was hit as hard as they could have been. East of there though... :cry:
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#12909 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:48 am

WxGuy1,

Thanks for that information - very helpful to all..

Frank
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12910 Postby Cryomaniac » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:48 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:A fifth of the nation's oil refining capacity has been shut down, so I would not be surprised if gas jumps to $5-6 dollars per gallon.


The prices should come down almost as soon as the refineries are back up though.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12911 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:49 am

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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12912 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:51 am

This is another one of those "pressure" storms where the pressure was more of an indicator of strength rather than the windspeed. 953 was the impact strength from what I'm reading. I disagree with the "if this had another 24 hours over water" statements. Simply because Ike was showing improvements on satellite but had zero pressure drop accompaniments or windspeed increases during the time it did improve.
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#12913 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:52 am

WxGuy1,

Thanks for that information - very helpful to all..

Frank
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Time Traveller

Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12914 Postby Time Traveller » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:53 am

Southwest Houston:
Image
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Re: Re:

#12915 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 11:59 am

dixiebreeze wrote:He had more, but shared with others in the apartment building. Early 20's and NO experience with hurricanes.


That happens all too often with people, sadly, especially in their first hurricane.
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Time Traveller

Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12916 Postby Time Traveller » Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:05 pm

According to local Houston news, all 22 people on stranded Antalina freighter ship ok and will be towed in soon.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12917 Postby expat2carib » Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:07 pm

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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12918 Postby simplykristi » Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:08 pm

If I lived in those areas between SW LA and Galveston, I would have evacuated. This storm may have been just a Cat 2 but it packed a big punch. Look at downtown Houston wihich got hit with hurricane winds. If people had been there in the streets, they would have been killed by the falling glass. I guess a lot of people will never learn that even a cat 1 storm can cause damage, injuries and even death. I heard someone say that we should do away with the categories and I agree. You cannot take on nature's fury or it will kill you.

Kristi
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12919 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:12 pm

Jijenji wrote:The damage reports I'm getting...draw a line from Beach City south, maybe including the San Leon / parts of Texas City area, down to the far east side of Galveston Island.

Everything NE of there very severe damage.

where are you getting your reports from?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#12920 Postby hial2 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:17 pm

Enzo Aquarius wrote:
HurricaneRobert wrote:A fifth of the nation's oil refining capacity has been shut down, so I would not be surprised if gas jumps to $5-6 dollars per gallon.


Reports are saying it already has, and I thought the 13 cent jump to $1.36 was bad here in Canada. :(



$1.36 per gallon or liter??
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