WPAC HAGUPIT (PAGASA: Nina): Typhoon - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

This system already has the looks of a major typhoon.

[Dave C]

The latest track has it very near Hong Kong in 5 days at 105 knts. That track will shift of course in the long range but at the moment is not looking good.

[Chacor]

This system already has the looks of a major typhoon.

Actually, not really. Quite a number of storms these days in the WPac have a majority of convection in the S quad and only a weak eyewall in the N quad. That's not a major typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

No, Chacor. I didn't mean to say that Hagupit was a major typhoon. I meant to say that this system already has the look of a future major typhoon.

[Chacor]

Right, fair enough, but it also depends what you mean by major:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/W ... .100pc.jpg

STS Bilis in 2006 never reached typhoon strength, peaked at 60 kt and killed over 600 people.

[Chacor]

Speaking of STS:

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0814 HAGUPIT (0814) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 13.3N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 14.6N 128.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 220000UTC 17.5N 126.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 230000UTC 19.5N 123.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

Perhaps a real eye is starting to form:

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 14.4N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 17.8N 126.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 221200UTC 20.6N 123.8E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 231200UTC 22.9N 119.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Aslkahuna]

There's been an uncommon amount of shear in WPAC recently which is why the storms have not been able to get strong convection all of the way around and keep it there. In this case, however, it looks as though Hagupit has dry air issues. Probably in the mid levels as Trade Air which usually has strong subsidence above H7 in WPAC can entrain into storms from time to time. Ironically, PAGASA calls this storm Nina (my first wife's name) but Hagupit is also one of the International names submitted by the Philippines.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 16.6N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 19.3N 123.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 230000UTC 20.8N 119.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 240000UTC 21.9N 113.6E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***Not official***

It looks like an 85 mph category 1 in that loop, with very deep
white convection around the center. This could really intensify rapidly.

[爱我海坛]

Maybe that the system well turn WNN in a few time ...

[爱我海坛]

From JMA:

STS 0814 (Hagupit)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 21 September 2008
<Analyses at 21/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°55'(16.9°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(35NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE440km(240NM)
NW330km(180NM)

[爱我海坛]

May be landing near Guangdong Province===
Near HongKong

[爱我海坛]

***Not official***

It looks like an 85 mph category 1 in that loop, with very deep
white convection around the center. This could really intensify rapidly.

Yes,and CDO is better than before.

[爱我海坛]

Forecast landing area (From TYbbs,China)

NGP：Lufeng ---- Huidong
CWB(TW)：Macau ---- Zhuhai
JMA(JPN)：DouMen(Zhuhai)
NMC(CHN)：DouMen ---- Taishan
JTWC(USA)：Taishan
HKO(HK)：Taishan ---- Yangdong
EC(EUROPE)：YangJiang

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hagupit looks like it's going to thread the gap between Taiwan and Luzon. I finished the typhoon shoot in Taiwan yesterday and am now in Hong Kong due to fly out on Wednesday....as you can probably guess I'm going to delay my flight.

[Chacor]

Pressure down again at 06z but still no change in winds.

WTPQ21 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 17.1N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 19.6N 123.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 230600UTC 21.2N 118.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 240600UTC 22.3N 112.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

It's developed a real eye now: