ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Frank2]

Lyons mentioned that if the storm stays weak it could move more towards the west towards east coast but if it stays strong it could be a fish storm.

Thanks - I was watching Leave it to Beaver and missed the Tropical Update...

LOL

[Frank2]

Thanks, wxman57 for that update - hopefully no one will listen to AW's silly forecasts in the days ahead...

My guess is that they'll have it going up Broadway (NYC)...

[wxman57]

Lyons mentioned that if the storm stays weak it could move more towards the west towards east coast but if it stays strong it could be a fish storm.

Thanks - I was watching Leave it to Beaver and missed the Tropical Update...

LOL

It's weak now and it's already moving northward. Won't likely move much to the west over the next 3-4 days, regardless of its intensity. There's just nothing to steer it westward at any level.

[ronjon]

Well on our way to seeing Kyle shortly. The GFDL and HWRF both take soon to be Kyle northward toward Bermuda with a bend NW toward the end of the 5 day runs. A possible wrinkle in the forecast is the formation of another low pressure (initially baroclinic but perhaps becoming subtropical) off the FL/GA coast. Some models have this low move W-NW into GA or N FL with Kyle perhaps swinging toward the NW. Not sure how it'll sort out.

[cycloneye]

For the members in Puerto Rico,US.VI,BVI and Northern Leewards,there is a thread at the top of the forum where you can post the observations from your area as well local statements from the NWS in San Juan.

[wxman57]

Well on our way to seeing Kyle shortly. The GFDL and HWRF both take soon to be Kyle northward toward Bermuda with a bend NW toward the end of the 5 day runs. A possible wrinkle in the forecast is the formation of another low pressure (initially baroclinic but perhaps becoming subtropical) off the FL/GA coast. Some models have this low move W-NW into GA or N FL with Kyle perhaps swinging toward the NW. Not sure how it'll sort out.

I'm thinking this system may merge with the nontropical low along the east coast late this week. That's why the models are indicating north then NW beyond day 4. Digging upper trof along the east coast may draw 93L/Kyle on in.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 211400Z SEP 08//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 66.3W TO 20.8N 70.0W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A WAVE LOCATED 100NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CARRIBEAN SEA BEGINS TO WEAKEN,
ALLOWING THE WAVE TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN SEA AND A
SECONDARY RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED
BY 221400Z SEP 2008.//

[captain east]

I think it's a depression right about now, what about you guys?

[wxman57]

I think it's a depression right about now, what about you guys?

I think you should use surface obs to confirm, as you cannot tell using satellite. Surface obs say no well-defined LLC, and there are plenty of obs around 93L. Don't you remember that Gustav looked like a TS days before recon could ever find an LLC? I think it was Gustav. You just cannot tell for sure using satellite if a rotation is at the surface or aloft with such weak systems.

It's clearly not a TD now, but it probably will become one by tomorrow if convection persists near the area of lower pressure near southwestern PR.

12Z GFS is coming in. It's very similar to the other global models in developing a deep east U.S. low in 3-4 days. With increasing (strong) west winds at most levels across Florida during the coming week, 93L isn't going to affect Florida.

Here's the mean 700-400mb flow valid Wednesday evening. It indicates that 93L may turn NW a few days later around the upper low (and developing surface low off the east coast.

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Same map valid 7pm Thursday. Deepening low over GA. Strong west winds across FL. 93L heading NNW toward New England.

[jlauderdal]

Well on our way to seeing Kyle shortly. The GFDL and HWRF both take soon to be Kyle northward toward Bermuda with a bend NW toward the end of the 5 day runs. A possible wrinkle in the forecast is the formation of another low pressure (initially baroclinic but perhaps becoming subtropical) off the FL/GA coast. Some models have this low move W-NW into GA or N FL with Kyle perhaps swinging toward the NW. Not sure how it'll sort out.

I'm thinking this system may merge with the nontropical low along the east coast late this week. That's why the models are indicating north then NW beyond day 4. Digging upper trof along the east coast may draw 93L/Kyle on in.

its looking like there will be a large amount of energy right off the coast in this setup

[wxman57]

And here's the 132hr 12Z GFS mean flow valid 7pm Friday. Big low cranking up over the southeast U.S. will prevent any westward movement to Florida or the Gulf. It'll be interesting to see what becomes of this storm when it merges with the frontal low late in the week.

[Just Joshing You]

I read back a few days ago that some models had this going into N.S. What's the chances of that?

[jlauderdal]

And here's the 132hr 12Z GFS mean flow valid 7pm Friday. Big low cranking up over the southeast U.S. will prevent any westward movement to Florida or the Gulf. It'll be interesting to see what becomes of this storm when it merges with the frontal low late in the week.

looks like a big pressure gradient setup for a good chunk of the east coast even if it stays well offshore, do you agree 57?

[jlauderdal]

[HURAKAN]

I know everyone is paying close attention to 93L, but don't forget our NE Atlantic system.



For comments and information: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=103298&hilit=&p=1833163#p1833163

[cpdaman]

wxman is it not odd for a deepening low pressure to be over Land in GA. regardless if it's tropical or not

[wxman57]

wxman is it not odd for a deepening low pressure to be over Land in GA. regardless if it's tropical or not

That's a mid to upper-level low over the southeast U.S., not a surface low. Any surface low would be off to the east along the cold front. And it's quite common to have strong upper lows over land. It's not a tropical low.

Here's a 17Z surface plot. Definitely no TD out there now. Not much of any LLC. Very disorganized.

[Weatherfreak000]

wxman is it not odd for a deepening low pressure to be over Land in GA. regardless if it's tropical or not

That's a mid to upper-level low over the southeast U.S., not a surface low. Any surface low would be off to the east along the cold front. And it's quite common to have strong upper lows over land. It's not a tropical low.

Here's a 17Z surface plot. Definitely no TD out there now. Not much of any LLC. Very disorganized.

Desperation setting in? lol

I agree though....however with the convection on a very nice increase i'd expect a totally different story by tonight. Will this storm go inbetween the two islands or should it make landfall?