ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Lowpressure]

Once again, JB flames.

JB has been pushing 94L a lot harder, and, just yesterday, NHC had this as a 'code red' area.


But whatever, if one chooses to be willfully ignorant.

You keep worshiping him if you must. I respect him as a pro met, but his drama was wrong again, face it.

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to have found a circulation...

[Lowpressure]

Recon seems to have found a circulation...

Strange how the back and forth of two low pressure systems can work.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Recon seems to have found a circulation...

Systems to weak. In so the nhc won't upgrade.

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection seems to be on the increase with 93L... I believe given a LLC we should see both Kyle and Lorenzo by tomorrow...

[CrazyC83]

Convection seems to be on the increase with 93L... I believe given a LLC we should see both Kyle and Laura by tomorrow...

Yeah, I think this is a 25 kt TD right now but is a little ways away from a tropical storm.

[HenkL]

Pressure 1004. The 997 in the former pass isn't reliable I think.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure 1004. The 997 in the former pass isn't reliable I think.

That seems correct. I'd say 1004 or 1005.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection seems to be on the increase with 93L... I believe given a LLC we should see both Kyle and Laura by tomorrow...

Yeah, I think this is a 25 kt TD right now but is a little ways away from a tropical storm.

No threat to land, so I highly doubt they will upgrade a system this weak to a TD.

[HURAKAN]

West-wind!

[HURAKAN]

No threat to land, so I highly doubt they will upgrade a system this weak to a TD.

No thread to land??? The rain falling over Puerto Rico and the SE Bahamas are not a problem? The NE and Canada aren't land??

Then why did the NHC upgraded TD 10 in 2004, or TD 7 in 2002, or TD 15 last year?

[RL3AO]

Might need to tighten up a bit more.

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite good at the moment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Convection seems to be on the increase with 93L... I believe given a LLC we should see both Kyle and Lorenzo by tomorrow...

Kyle and Laura?

[HurricaneFreak]

Okay Invest 93 is going to be a fish storm because the models keep on moving slightly east.And if it intensifies it should only be a tropical storm or depression and become subtropical when it moves more north.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If a vortex comes out then it maybe possible for a upgrade. But intil then there is nothing to point to a upgrade.

[HurricaneQueen]

Okay Invest 93 is going to be a fish storm because the models keep on moving slightly east.And if it intensifies it should only be a tropical storm or depression and become subtropical when it moves more north.

PLEASE quit calling this a "fish storm". It may be going out to sea, IYO, but it has already seriously impacted our friends in the Caribbean including PR. DR, Haiti, the Virgin Islands and other islands.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Okay Invest 93 is going to be a fish storm because the models keep on moving slightly east.And if it intensifies it should only be a tropical storm or depression and become subtropical when it moves more north.

That may be premature, and the leftover mid/upper feature from 94L may try to bend it back in.


GFDL at 18Z is still aiming for Cape Cod, not far from earlier runs, as a minimal Cat 1. Granted, this should be 1001 mb with winds over 50 knots right now, per GFDL 6 hour forecast. Extrap pressure, 997 mb, is actually a touch below that, but no recon winds that strong.

But a high end tropical storm, possibly with some added juice from non-tropical processes, into Eastern New England or Canada can't be ruled out. If this develops, which, indeed, may not happen.

That isn't a forecast, just an opinion, and I am an amateur.


ETA:

000200 2115N 06916W 7611 02406 0046 +133 +119 323007 008 034 000 03
000230 2116N 06914W 7614 02404 0045 +134 +129 306006 010 044 007 00
000300 2118N 06913W 7610 02409 0040 +132 +132 217002 005 046 008 00
000330 2119N 06911W 7581 02440 0015 +128 +128 148005 010 040 002 00
000400 2120N 06909W 7571 02454 9983 +129 +129 132014 015 040 003 00
000430 2122N 06908W 7574 02453 9970 +130 +130 130014 015 999 999 03
000500 2124N 06908W 7580 02444 0047 +133 +127 146018 018 036 002 00
000530 2126N 06908W 7597 02427 0051 +131 +126 141016 017 033 000 03

That 997 looks a little funky to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, looks like a nice burst of convection, but the LLC is still basically exposed.

Looks like some of the 'home brew' type systems that occasionally form off Texas or Louisiana, basically half a storm, with all the action to one side. Looks like this, like the Western Gulf 'half a storm', is battling shear and dry air.



In the GOMEX, this might be upgraded to a tropical depression, but with this moving away from land, I'd guess NHC won't do it tonight.



Still, as I said earlier when people said this was dead, this isn't dead, just feeling very poorly after having the salmon mousse for dinner.

[StormTracker]

Hurricane season 2008, unlike 2006 & 2007, where threats to the islands and the US just don't die! They keep kickin' & fightin' til they become somebody (a named storm) and then defy almost all models!!! 4 down-2 months to go!!!