ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion
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So...why don't you argue about this someplace else, kids?
Ms.Bee, I love how it will be east of PR and over the VI's...a whole 14 miles away (well, from us...PR is 19 miles away from us on the other side)
Ms.Bee, I love how it will be east of PR and over the VI's...a whole 14 miles away (well, from us...PR is 19 miles away from us on the other side)
Last edited by caribepr on Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It would be more important to know how many of those single isobar disturbances went on to become cyclones?
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:Where's BVIgal? She looks to have a storm headed her way from this one.
Models in strong consensus across or near Virgin Islands.
I'm here, and I expect to lose power and I need to find some big water containers and fill them up so I can flush my toilet for 2 or 3 days with power out, finish two paid jobs, go to town and pick up a fedx with bank deposit for a client and get to bank before 3, finish and deliver tax filings due tomorrow, figure out if my car will be safe in driveway with retaining wall now showing seepage between the blocks 2" down from the top, or park it way up on the beyond driveway (15% grade) on road under the utility poles, etc.
So, I'm here trying to read for the serious opinions about how track might continue to change, and how intensity fcst might change (instead of arguments over past seasons). But about to give up, just don't have the time.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I expect to lose power and I need to find some big water containers and fill them up so I can flush my toilet for 2 or 3 days with power out
Hurricanes are the devil's price for living in paradise. Been there done that with the toilet flushing with Charley, except I had to go to the hurricane flood in the backyard to scoop fetid water with a bucket. I'll leave the olifactory image to you (yuck!). Found that a shower can be had with 4 FEMA water bottles if done carefully.
We should have a better idea on track and intensity by later tonight.
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Track has shifted slightly to the right. Due to the angle of approach, a slight change makes a big difference to Virgin Islands, as this new forecast advisory now has the storm passing to the right of the BVI. To see this graphically, take a look at this Google map, where I plotted the actual postions (red "O"), and with blue markers, "5F", meaning forecast advisory #5.


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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
bvigal wrote:Sanibel wrote:Where's BVIgal? She looks to have a storm headed her way from this one.
Models in strong consensus across or near Virgin Islands.
I'm here, and I expect to lose power and I need to find some big water containers and fill them up so I can flush my toilet for 2 or 3 days with power out, finish two paid jobs, go to town and pick up a fedx with bank deposit for a client and get to bank before 3, finish and deliver tax filings due tomorrow, figure out if my car will be safe in driveway with retaining wall now showing seepage between the blocks 2" down from the top, or park it way up on the beyond driveway (15% grade) on road under the utility poles, etc.
So, I'm here trying to read for the serious opinions about how track might continue to change, and how intensity fcst might change (instead of arguments over past seasons). But about to give up, just don't have the time.
Bvigal & Msbee.....
Watching and praying from afar for your safety......DO TAKE CARE and remain safe!!!
Gretchen
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
bvigal wrote:Track has shifted slightly to the right. Due to the angle of approach, a slight change makes a big difference to Virgin Islands, as this new forecast advisory now has the storm passing to the right of the BVI. To see this graphically, take a look at this Google map, where I plotted the actual postions (red "O"), and with blue markers, "5F", meaning forecast advisory #5.
Absolutely good post, yeah Bvigal



Rain is back in Guadeloupe pretty moist, grey sad no winds and thunder is rumbling a bit...
Let's see what happens during the next couple of hours...with big baby OMAR

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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:00 N Lon : 68:54:47 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 988.6mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.1 4.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb
Center Temp : -73.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:00 N Lon : 68:54:47 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 988.6mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.1 4.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb
Center Temp : -73.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:00 N Lon : 68:54:47 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 988.6mb/ 67.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.1 4.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb
Center Temp : -73.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
Are you telling me there is a dvorak estimate of the storm that has CURRENT intensity estimated at that, or is it future? How come SSD rating it 2.5 ? Can you give the source, please?
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- Gustywind
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Just for info Martinica has already required an yellow alert at 12 am for a risk of a dangerous sea due to an unsual swell from west during the next days and a risk of moderate and cumulated amounts of water....
For those who are interested, and who could read and understand french
LINK: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf
If no good go on: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php and then clik on Martinique, or the others islands you want to know the recents weather alerts discussions...
For those who are interested, and who could read and understand french


LINK: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf
If no good go on: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php and then clik on Martinique, or the others islands you want to know the recents weather alerts discussions...
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nevermind, I found it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt15L.html
I know it's only an estimate, but it's HUGELY different. Why the discrepancy between it and, say SSD?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt15L.html
I know it's only an estimate, but it's HUGELY different. Why the discrepancy between it and, say SSD?
Last edited by bvigal on Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SSD is a few hours old, and done by a trained professional. CIMMS ADT is done more recently, by a computer using an algorithm.
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thanks Ed, that makes me feel a whole lot better!! Always better when data synthesized through a human brain!! l-)
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Would say hurricane soon from that estimated strength.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ed Mahmoud wrote:SSD is a few hours old, and done by a trained professional. CIMMS ADT is done more recently, by a computer using an algorithm.
4) The ODT performs well in most cases, but is less reliable in certain identifiable situations:
* Estimates are generally too strong in Central Dense Overcast (CDO) situations.
* Estimates are too weak in strong shear and "pinhole eye" situations.
* Some uncertainty in the application of Dvorak "Step 9" during weakening stages.
* During rapid intensity fluctuations, ODT estimate trends may be damped somewhat due to the introduction of time averaging.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/research/products/dvorak/odt.html
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Take a look at this infrared imagery with "funk-top" enhancement (cloud tops) from SSD floater:

This is beginning to present a concern of some rapid intensification.

This is beginning to present a concern of some rapid intensification.
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