ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

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caribepr
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#221 Postby caribepr » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:16 am

So...why don't you argue about this someplace else, kids?

Ms.Bee, I love how it will be east of PR and over the VI's...a whole 14 miles away (well, from us...PR is 19 miles away from us on the other side)
Last edited by caribepr on Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#222 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:17 am

It would be more important to know how many of those single isobar disturbances went on to become cyclones?
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#223 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:17 am

Sanibel wrote:Where's BVIgal? She looks to have a storm headed her way from this one.

Models in strong consensus across or near Virgin Islands.

I'm here, and I expect to lose power and I need to find some big water containers and fill them up so I can flush my toilet for 2 or 3 days with power out, finish two paid jobs, go to town and pick up a fedx with bank deposit for a client and get to bank before 3, finish and deliver tax filings due tomorrow, figure out if my car will be safe in driveway with retaining wall now showing seepage between the blocks 2" down from the top, or park it way up on the beyond driveway (15% grade) on road under the utility poles, etc.

So, I'm here trying to read for the serious opinions about how track might continue to change, and how intensity fcst might change (instead of arguments over past seasons). But about to give up, just don't have the time.
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#224 Postby caribepr » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:19 am

A hug from here, bvigal. :(
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#225 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:20 am

..back atcha, MJ!!
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#226 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:23 am

I expect to lose power and I need to find some big water containers and fill them up so I can flush my toilet for 2 or 3 days with power out



Hurricanes are the devil's price for living in paradise. Been there done that with the toilet flushing with Charley, except I had to go to the hurricane flood in the backyard to scoop fetid water with a bucket. I'll leave the olifactory image to you (yuck!). Found that a shower can be had with 4 FEMA water bottles if done carefully.

We should have a better idea on track and intensity by later tonight.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#227 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:25 am

Track has shifted slightly to the right. Due to the angle of approach, a slight change makes a big difference to Virgin Islands, as this new forecast advisory now has the storm passing to the right of the BVI. To see this graphically, take a look at this Google map, where I plotted the actual postions (red "O"), and with blue markers, "5F", meaning forecast advisory #5.
Image
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#228 Postby greels » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:30 am

bvigal wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Where's BVIgal? She looks to have a storm headed her way from this one.

Models in strong consensus across or near Virgin Islands.

I'm here, and I expect to lose power and I need to find some big water containers and fill them up so I can flush my toilet for 2 or 3 days with power out, finish two paid jobs, go to town and pick up a fedx with bank deposit for a client and get to bank before 3, finish and deliver tax filings due tomorrow, figure out if my car will be safe in driveway with retaining wall now showing seepage between the blocks 2" down from the top, or park it way up on the beyond driveway (15% grade) on road under the utility poles, etc.

So, I'm here trying to read for the serious opinions about how track might continue to change, and how intensity fcst might change (instead of arguments over past seasons). But about to give up, just don't have the time.


Bvigal & Msbee.....

Watching and praying from afar for your safety......DO TAKE CARE and remain safe!!!
Gretchen
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#229 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:41 am

bvigal wrote:Track has shifted slightly to the right. Due to the angle of approach, a slight change makes a big difference to Virgin Islands, as this new forecast advisory now has the storm passing to the right of the BVI. To see this graphically, take a look at this Google map, where I plotted the actual postions (red "O"), and with blue markers, "5F", meaning forecast advisory #5.
Image

Absolutely good post, yeah Bvigal :) your're definitely right, i appreciate... Whereas given this synopsis, if this trend continues to the right ours neighbours from St Marteen could be exposed for a direct threat and thus by extension the southern Leewards included Guadeloupe could "appreciate " the unpleasants wet and convective weather conditions added to unusual winds and seas from Southwest, but that's not good for the Carib islands PR BVI LEEWARDS :double: :(
Rain is back in Guadeloupe pretty moist, grey sad no winds and thunder is rumbling a bit...
Let's see what happens during the next couple of hours...with big baby OMAR :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#230 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:47 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:00 N Lon : 68:54:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 988.6mb/ 67.4kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.1 4.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -73.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#231 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:00 N Lon : 68:54:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 988.6mb/ 67.4kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.1 4.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -73.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Are you telling me there is a dvorak estimate of the storm that has CURRENT intensity estimated at that, or is it future? How come SSD rating it 2.5 ? Can you give the source, please?
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#232 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:11 pm

Just for info Martinica has already required an yellow alert at 12 am for a risk of a dangerous sea due to an unsual swell from west during the next days and a risk of moderate and cumulated amounts of water....
For those who are interested, and who could read and understand french :) :darrow:
LINK: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf
If no good go on: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php and then clik on Martinique, or the others islands you want to know the recents weather alerts discussions...
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#233 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:14 pm

Nevermind, I found it:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt15L.html

I know it's only an estimate, but it's HUGELY different. Why the discrepancy between it and, say SSD?
Last edited by bvigal on Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#234 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:14 pm

SSD is a few hours old, and done by a trained professional. CIMMS ADT is done more recently, by a computer using an algorithm.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#235 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:16 pm

Thanks Ed, that makes me feel a whole lot better!! Always better when data synthesized through a human brain!! l-)
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#236 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:17 pm

Would say hurricane soon from that estimated strength.
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#237 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:21 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:SSD is a few hours old, and done by a trained professional. CIMMS ADT is done more recently, by a computer using an algorithm.



4) The ODT performs well in most cases, but is less reliable in certain identifiable situations:
* Estimates are generally too strong in Central Dense Overcast (CDO) situations.
* Estimates are too weak in strong shear and "pinhole eye" situations.
* Some uncertainty in the application of Dvorak "Step 9" during weakening stages.
* During rapid intensity fluctuations, ODT estimate trends may be damped somewhat due to the introduction of time averaging.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/research/products/dvorak/odt.html
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#238 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:24 pm

Take a look at this infrared imagery with "funk-top" enhancement (cloud tops) from SSD floater:
Image
This is beginning to present a concern of some rapid intensification.
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#239 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:29 pm

From what I can see, Omar is bombing out. I think Recon will find a stunner - a strong tropical storm (almost a hurricane).
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Re: ATL: Omar - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#240 Postby Category 5 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:31 pm

I think they'll find a 50kt system.
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