ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Not a forecast, just an imaginary continuation of the past three VDA. Cyclones do not move in a straight line.

[Driftin]

looking at the radar the eye seems to take a more Northenly path at the end. Does anybody see that?
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

In case you have not seen it.

[Sanibel]

Looking close to a fairly wide east side pass of St Croix and hard side pass of Anguilla and through the Anegada Passage.


The eye is clearly tightening up on radar. Get ready.

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[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

104 kt winds at flight-level, which support a 95 kt intensity. The SFMR supports 85 kt. I'd guess 90 kt as a blend of the values.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde winds: about 87 kt. Pressure 970mb according to dropsonde. Given the data, 90 kt does seem correct.

[HURAKAN]

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...16.6 N...65.2 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure...971 mb.

90 knots

[TCmet]

90kts at 8pm. now cat 2.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

Could we luck out with the hurricane force winds...or at least the eye wall...sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI?

Large parts of Puerto Rico might even miss out on the ts winds if the current heading holds....

[wxman57]

It appears to be heading right for St. Croix now, maybe the eastern side of the island. Bad news is that the latest HRD wind analysis (2230Z) now has 64kt winds extending 25-30 miles from the center and the hurricane-force wind area is expanding significantly:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest HRD gridded H*WIND analysis for brevity:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2008/AL152008/1015/2230/AL152008_1015_2230_contour04.png

[Gustywind]

Could we luck out with the hurricane force winds...or at least the eye wall...sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI?

Sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI or NOT we have a cat 2 cane very close to 3 in vicinity of the BVI, and the others Leewards. I sincerely appreciate your interrest of the details, but for the moment others things are much important than that, (you dont' tkink that ) because worst weather conditions are expected.
So knowing if Omar will pass between St. Martin and the US & British VI...is not the most important with my untrained eyes , if Omar could be nothing more than a cat 2 i will HONESTLY appreciate jinft, tkanks a lot for all , just a wish pray for us in the Leewards especially the BVI and the Northern Leewards ( St Marteen and St Barth graciasss )!!!

[HURAKAN]

Very intense convection.

[MiamiensisWx]

Could we luck out with the hurricane force winds...or at least the eye wall...sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI?

Sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI or NOT we have a cat 2 cane very close to 3 in vicinity of the BVI, and the others Leewards. I sincerely appreciate your interrest of the details, but for the moment others things are much important than that, (you dont' tkink that) because worst weather conditions are expected.
So knowing if Omar will pass between St. Martin and the US & British VI...is not the most important with my untrained eyes , if Omar could be nothing more than a cat 2 i will HONESTLY appreciate jinft, tkanks a lot for all , just a wish pray for us in the Leewards especially the BVI and the Northern Leewards ( St Marteen and St Barth graciasss)!!!

Since the TC will not be interacting with a boundary or the baroclinic region slightly farther north, it is probable that the radius of hurricane force winds will only slowly increase in size (areal coverage) over the next 24 hours. Therefore, JinFTL's point is valid. A small variation in the heading and track will make a significant difference for Sint Maarten, Saint Croix, and other areas, since the strongest winds will be occurring east of the center (due to the forward speed and synoptic/thermodynamic set-up). Secondly, true Category 1/2 (or even very strong TS winds) are much stronger than some people may suspect... take it from my experience, since I encountered marginal Category 1 conditions during Wilma in southeastern Florida.

This event (for what it's worth) will likely be the strongest TC to impact the northern Leeward Islands since Georges 1998 and Lenny 1999.

[Crostorm]

[jinftl]

You've got my prayers and good thoughts in abundance...for all of those who are in the path...and those who are close enough to the path to be rightfully concerned.....sincerely sending well wishes to each and everyone of you...may the light of dawn reveal a landscape and people untouched and as beautiful as ever

Could we luck out with the hurricane force winds...or at least the eye wall...sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI?

Sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI or NOT we have a cat 2 cane very close to 3 in vicinity of the BVI, and the others Leewards. I sincerely appreciate your interrest of the details, but for the moment others things are much important than that, (you dont' tkink that ) because worst weather conditions are expected.
So knowing if Omar will pass between St. Martin and the US & British VI...is not the most important with my untrained eyes , if Omar could be nothing more than a cat 2 i will HONESTLY appreciate jinft, tkanks a lot for all , just a wish pray for us in the Leewards especially the BVI and the Northern Leewards ( St Marteen and St Barth graciasss )!!!