2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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iorange55
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#61 Postby iorange55 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:27 pm

Wow gfs 18 model that's updating now is showing a winter storm it looks like. Nov. 30th through the 1st of December.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#62 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:39 pm

iorange55 wrote:Wow gfs 18 model that's updating now is showing a winter storm it looks like. Nov. 30th through the 1st of December.



Looking at AccuWx PPV raw 18Z GFS numbers, DFW is a very cold rain, Abilene looks like rain changing to snow, ballpark 4 inch accumulations Sunday morning, similar Wichita Falls.

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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#63 Postby iorange55 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:55 pm

Ed do you see maybe another storm on that model coming around December 7th? My model reading skills are not that great yet.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#64 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:00 pm

iorange55 wrote:Ed do you see maybe another storm on that model coming around December 7th? My model reading skills are not that great yet.


GFS says just a shade too warm on night of December 6th at the surface for snow, but it is days away, and may be completely wrong, or could be on the right track, but due to grid scale issues may be a degree celcius too warm. Might even end as snow (hard to tell exactly when a phase change might occur between six hour steps and when during the twelve hours precip falls), but ground temps look too warm to support stickage,

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-DEC   5.0     0.7    1015      89      79    0.10     558     545   
SUN 06Z 07-DEC   2.2    -1.7    1023      90      83    0.12     555     537   
SUN 18Z 07-DEC   5.5    -1.2    1023      68      41    0.00     558     540     


If it was still precipping at 6Z, it should be cold enough for snow, but with no precip shown following twelve hours, precip has probably ended.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#65 Postby iorange55 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:13 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Ed do you see maybe another storm on that model coming around December 7th? My model reading skills are not that great yet.


GFS says just a shade too warm on night of December 6th at the surface for snow, but it is days away, and may be completely wrong, or could be on the right track, but due to grid scale issues may be a degree celcius too warm. Might even end as snow (hard to tell exactly when a phase change might occur between six hour steps and when during the twelve hours precip falls), but ground temps look too warm to support stickage,

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-DEC   5.0     0.7    1015      89      79    0.10     558     545   
SUN 06Z 07-DEC   2.2    -1.7    1023      90      83    0.12     555     537   
SUN 18Z 07-DEC   5.5    -1.2    1023      68      41    0.00     558     540     


If it was still precipping at 6Z, it should be cold enough for snow, but with no precip shown following twelve hours, precip has probably ended.



Thank you kind sir for explaining.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#66 Postby iorange55 » Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:24 pm

New gfs 00 seems to show the same storm and even brings it further south it looks like. Ugh I know it'll change so I'm not even going to get excited.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#67 Postby iorange55 » Tue Nov 25, 2008 5:45 am

Read the Oklahoma city and Abilene noaa discussion for this morning. They both talked about the GFS model showing something. But they seem to be sticking with the ECMWF which is just cool and dry. If we could just get the ECMWF to agree with the GFS.....sigh.


I'm sure the models will change again by the time I get back home.


:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#68 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:00 am

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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#69 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:28 am

6Z DGEX sees a decent snow for a small portion of the Southwest Panhandle, late in the week, with snow continuing in the Mountain Time Zone parts of Texas, deep into Chihuahua, early in the week. I used the AccuWx PPV site, but one can see it on free sites. Looks like Midland, almost 1 km above sea level, has enough elevation for a shot at some snow. I worked a Summer job in Midland. But if DGEX is right, those of us at lower elevations have a snow-free week coming up.

Image


Guadalupe Mountains of Texas with snow cover, as seems likely from DGEX.

Image
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#70 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:08 pm

Sadly, doesn't look likely...

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#71 Postby iorange55 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 12:18 am

Blah, seems like not a lot is going to happen. the long range for us looks very warm past day 10 or 11.


:(
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#72 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:34 am

Snow flurries near the beach in Galveston Sunday night?


Image

ETA:

Don't see model support from Canadian or Euro for this...
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#73 Postby iorange55 » Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:40 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Snow flurries near the beach in Galveston Sunday night?


Image



Lol now that'd be something.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#74 Postby Portastorm » Wed Nov 26, 2008 9:04 am

Eh, for the most part we're seeing all model support for a Texas wintry event around Dec. 3-4 evaporate. Lucy can go back inside because they'll be no football kicking today, or tomorrow, or probably the day after tomorrow. :wink:
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#75 Postby gboudx » Wed Nov 26, 2008 10:17 am

Portastorm wrote:Eh, for the most part we're seeing all model support for a Texas wintry event around Dec. 3-4 evaporate. Lucy can go back inside because they'll be no football kicking today, or tomorrow, or probably the day after tomorrow. :wink:


That movie was on FX last night. Bring it. :slime:

Everyone have a great Thanksgiving. I'm looking forward to some seafood gumbo, oyster dressing and roasted duck.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter WxThread-T-Day wknd snow?

#76 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Nov 26, 2008 10:40 am

6Z GFS shows the cold air, but not the precip...

Image
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter W:-T-Day wknd snow?-unlikely

#77 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Nov 26, 2008 11:54 am

Cruelty- cold without snow

Image
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#78 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 01, 2008 9:51 pm

12/1/2008 18Z GFS briefly dusts a small portion of the Panhandle near Vega with snow, but otherwise leaves Texas barren and brown.


But as a pro-met noted in EWG's Oklahoma cold thread, pressures are rising and temps are falling in Alaska, so hope springs eternal.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#79 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:05 pm

18Z DGEX shows snow in the Mountain Time Zone portions of Texas next Tuesday.

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#80 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:29 am

I just read JB's update and he is concerned about a Citrus freeze later this month in Texas and Florida.

Hey Portastorm! Go find your kicking shoe! :lol:
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