2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[iorange55]

Wow gfs 18 model that's updating now is showing a winter storm it looks like. Nov. 30th through the 1st of December.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wow gfs 18 model that's updating now is showing a winter storm it looks like. Nov. 30th through the 1st of December.

Looking at AccuWx PPV raw 18Z GFS numbers, DFW is a very cold rain, Abilene looks like rain changing to snow, ballpark 4 inch accumulations Sunday morning, similar Wichita Falls.

[iorange55]

Ed do you see maybe another storm on that model coming around December 7th? My model reading skills are not that great yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed do you see maybe another storm on that model coming around December 7th? My model reading skills are not that great yet.

GFS says just a shade too warm on night of December 6th at the surface for snow, but it is days away, and may be completely wrong, or could be on the right track, but due to grid scale issues may be a degree celcius too warm. Might even end as snow (hard to tell exactly when a phase change might occur between six hour steps and when during the twelve hours precip falls), but ground temps look too warm to support stickage,

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-DEC   5.0     0.7    1015      89      79    0.10     558     545   
SUN 06Z 07-DEC   2.2    -1.7    1023      90      83    0.12     555     537   
SUN 18Z 07-DEC   5.5    -1.2    1023      68      41    0.00     558     540     

If it was still precipping at 6Z, it should be cold enough for snow, but with no precip shown following twelve hours, precip has probably ended.

[iorange55]

Ed do you see maybe another storm on that model coming around December 7th? My model reading skills are not that great yet.

GFS says just a shade too warm on night of December 6th at the surface for snow, but it is days away, and may be completely wrong, or could be on the right track, but due to grid scale issues may be a degree celcius too warm. Might even end as snow (hard to tell exactly when a phase change might occur between six hour steps and when during the twelve hours precip falls), but ground temps look too warm to support stickage,

Code: Select all

SAT 18Z 06-DEC   5.0     0.7    1015      89      79    0.10     558     545   
SUN 06Z 07-DEC   2.2    -1.7    1023      90      83    0.12     555     537   
SUN 18Z 07-DEC   5.5    -1.2    1023      68      41    0.00     558     540     

If it was still precipping at 6Z, it should be cold enough for snow, but with no precip shown following twelve hours, precip has probably ended.

Thank you kind sir for explaining.

[iorange55]

New gfs 00 seems to show the same storm and even brings it further south it looks like. Ugh I know it'll change so I'm not even going to get excited.

[iorange55]

Read the Oklahoma city and Abilene noaa discussion for this morning. They both talked about the GFS model showing something. But they seem to be sticking with the ECMWF which is just cool and dry. If we could just get the ECMWF to agree with the GFS.....sigh.


I'm sure the models will change again by the time I get back home.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No snow in Texas next week per Euro...

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z DGEX sees a decent snow for a small portion of the Southwest Panhandle, late in the week, with snow continuing in the Mountain Time Zone parts of Texas, deep into Chihuahua, early in the week. I used the AccuWx PPV site, but one can see it on free sites. Looks like Midland, almost 1 km above sea level, has enough elevation for a shot at some snow. I worked a Summer job in Midland. But if DGEX is right, those of us at lower elevations have a snow-free week coming up.




Guadalupe Mountains of Texas with snow cover, as seems likely from DGEX.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sadly, doesn't look likely...

[iorange55]

Blah, seems like not a lot is going to happen. the long range for us looks very warm past day 10 or 11.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snow flurries near the beach in Galveston Sunday night?




ETA:

Don't see model support from Canadian or Euro for this...

[iorange55]

Snow flurries near the beach in Galveston Sunday night?

Lol now that'd be something.

[Portastorm]

Eh, for the most part we're seeing all model support for a Texas wintry event around Dec. 3-4 evaporate. Lucy can go back inside because they'll be no football kicking today, or tomorrow, or probably the day after tomorrow.

[gboudx]

Eh, for the most part we're seeing all model support for a Texas wintry event around Dec. 3-4 evaporate. Lucy can go back inside because they'll be no football kicking today, or tomorrow, or probably the day after tomorrow.

That movie was on FX last night. Bring it.

Everyone have a great Thanksgiving. I'm looking forward to some seafood gumbo, oyster dressing and roasted duck.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS shows the cold air, but not the precip...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cruelty- cold without snow

[Ed Mahmoud]

12/1/2008 18Z GFS briefly dusts a small portion of the Panhandle near Vega with snow, but otherwise leaves Texas barren and brown.


But as a pro-met noted in EWG's Oklahoma cold thread, pressures are rising and temps are falling in Alaska, so hope springs eternal.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z DGEX shows snow in the Mountain Time Zone portions of Texas next Tuesday.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I just read JB's update and he is concerned about a Citrus freeze later this month in Texas and Florida.

Hey Portastorm! Go find your kicking shoe!