
Shot at 2009-04-18
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED AGAIN TO TAKE SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OUT OF
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 9 PM. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE MID EVENING
HOURS. STILL HARD TO BELIEVE SOME OF THE RAINFALL RATES OBSERVED
IN THE AREA DURING THIS AMAZING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING SFC FEATURE WITH ROTATION IN CHAMBERS LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO JEFFERSON AFTER 5 PM WILL MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LVL LOW SPINNING OVER SE COLORADO HAS
KICKED OUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHRTWVS THAT IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING COASTAL TEXAS. SFC TROF IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW LVL JET DRAGGING MOISTURE INTO SE
TX AND SRN LA. PRECIP WATER RUNNING ABOUT 1.8 INCHES. AT THIS
TIME WITH CAPES AT 1000J/KG AND HEL OF 223 M2/S2. THIS SFC
BOUNDARY IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY ALLOWING STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS SE
TX WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN TYLER...
JASPER... AND HARDIN COUNTIES. A STRONGER STORM IS PRODUCING
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IN CHAMBERS COUNTY...THIS STORM
IS MOVING INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND A FFW HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
STORMS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MARCH EASTWARD WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SE TX AND SW LA. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT AS SHEAR OVER SE TX AND SRN LOUISIANA WILL
ALSO SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STORMS ENDING
OVER SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR S-CNTRL LA.
UPPER LVL LOW LOOKS TO GET A KICK OFF TO THE EAST AS NRN JET DROPS
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TOMORROW. THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM FINALLY DRYING OUT SE TX TMRW MRNG AND SRN LA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CajunMama wrote:What is this going to mean for those of us to the east? Stronger storms? Tornados?
southerngale wrote:CajunMama wrote:What is this going to mean for those of us to the east? Stronger storms? Tornados?
Anyone?
I gave her my opinion, but what do I know?
It's been raining cats & dogs for many hours here. Moderate to heavy intensity... back and forth, but always steady rain with no breaks. No crazy totals like KatDaddy and not even in the Allison family (Allison caused major flooding around here), but still... a LOT of rain!
But hey... it's letting up in the Houston area, so at least we know there's an end in sight.
boca wrote:southerngale wrote:CajunMama wrote:What is this going to mean for those of us to the east? Stronger storms? Tornados?
Anyone?
I gave her my opinion, but what do I know?
It's been raining cats & dogs for many hours here. Moderate to heavy intensity... back and forth, but always steady rain with no breaks. No crazy totals like KatDaddy and not even in the Allison family (Allison caused major flooding around here), but still... a LOT of rain!
But hey... it's letting up in the Houston area, so at least we know there's an end in sight.
I'm one of the have nots on the Florida thread.I don't remember what rain looks like or even steady rains with no breaks.I'm glad you guys in Texas are getting the rains you need.Can you will it to South Florida.
***Seabrook: water going into homes from Clear Lake***
100 homes affected in La Porte
homes likely flooded along upper Halls
Channels: (Warnings in effect)
Lt Cedar: out of banks, falling
Berry: falling, within banks
Lt Vince: falling within banks
Clear Creek: out of banks from 2nd Outlet to FM 528
Garners: out of banks at Beltway 8
Halls: out of banks around I-45
White Oak: out of banks around I-45 (impacting White Oak Bayou Dr)
W fork @ US 59: RFC forecast...river to rise to near flood stage early Sunday
Spring Creek @ I-45: minor flooding forecast per RFC
Luce Bayou @ Huffman: minor flooding forecast per RFC
Rainfall:
Widespread 3-5" across much of central and eastern Harris County.
Widespread 6-7" across SE Harris with isolated 10 inches along Clear Creek.
10.94 inches at I-45 and Clear Creek
vbhoutex wrote:JenBayles wrote:And I thought my eyes were bugging a few hours ago. Jeez! It's pitch black here in Bear Creek.
[edit] Looking at radar trends, I'm getting extremely worried about training setting up over western Harris county. Can someone tell me I'm just over-reacting?
It is not an over-reaction. This rain stretches all the way to S of SA. It has now set up training from what I see on the radar.and the urban and small stream flood advisory is definitely warranted. I am preparing to go further into skywarn mode and may have to begin reporting from my area. It has been pouring at our house for the last 20-30 minutes with no let up. What I was concerned was going to happen with the massively unstable air mass is apparently beginning to happen and we may be looking at a massive flood event over much of the Houston metro and SE TX area. Please everyone in the Houston metro/SE TX area stay home. The streets will probably begin to fill quickly and become impassable in many areas unless this lets up soon and radar does not indicate that at this time.
Edit: 12.49pm-Our streets are now becoming impassable. The water is higher than I have seen it in a long time here.
Edit: 1:15 pm-Cars flooded out in our streets and the water is higher than every time except one(Allison)that I have seen in the 22 years we have lived in this house. It is still pouring and when I checked the gauge 20 minutes ago we were already at 3.5" and that was probably low due to the location of the gauge. Definitely a major flood event unfolding now in the Houston area. Everyone please be safe. I have already reported to NWS and we were just issued a Flash flood warning for Harris and Montgomery Counties.
Edit: 1:36 pm-Just emptied 4" out of the rain gauge and it is still raining though it has let up some. Streets still impassable. Radar returns to the SW concern me, especially if those move N of or along I-10(not that I'm not concerned for other areas, but areas N of I-10 have been POUNDED already).
CajunMama wrote:Airport recorded 6.07" of rain since 3pm today. Friday night total was 1.49". So we got a total of 7.56" in about 24 hours.
PTrackerLA wrote:CajunMama wrote:Airport recorded 6.07" of rain since 3pm today. Friday night total was 1.49". So we got a total of 7.56" in about 24 hours.
Where did you see that? Can't be Lafayette as they recorded 2.22" of rain yesterday according to the official climate data report on the Lake Charles NWS site. Storm totals are in the 3"-4" range for Lafayette and the yards are loving it!
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