Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

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gatorcane
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Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

#1 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 13, 2009 11:17 am

Well, I think its time to start a thread on this. The ECMWF and CMC model have also flirted with the idea of some kind of low developing in the Southern GOM near the Yucatan, or SE GOM then heading NE into Southern Florida ahead of a large trough.

At this time, it should hopefully bring plenty of rain for Southern FL, but I am not expecting any kind of significant development (i.e a Tropical Storm or more).

Then it heads towards the Carolinas beyond that:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon May 18, 2009 9:01 am, edited 17 times in total.
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Re: GFS Shows a Low Passing Through S. FL in under 120 Hours

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2009 12:36 pm

If CMC is believed,those who live in the Florida Penninsula may have to prepare the shutters. :) gatorcane,you may want to edit the title.

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Re: GFS Shows a Low Passing Through S. FL in under 120 Hours

#3 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 13, 2009 12:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:If CMC is believed,those who live in the Florida Penninsula may have to prepare the shutters. :) gatorcane,you may want to edit the title.


I edited it to show the CMC run -- I think the CMC is too bullish on development. It's also slower in developing the system than the GFS.
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Re: GFS/CMC Show a Low Passing Through S. FL in under 120 Hours

#4 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 13, 2009 12:42 pm

Models (GFS/EC/Canadian) develop a large upper-level low over the area. As is typical, the Canadian develops every upper low that is over the water into a hurricane. The GFS develops a weak cold-core frontal low east of Florida then a weaker short-lived secondary low on the trailing end of the front in the Gulf. Tropical development appears unlikely, but Florida could get some rain.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 13, 2009 2:02 pm

12Z Euro just out. For the first time this year, the ECMWF is on board with the GFS with a low

I'm going to bet the NWS offices in Tampa and Miami start to talk about this low.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9051312!!/
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed May 13, 2009 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GFS/CMC/ECMWF Show a Low Passing Through S. FL Next Week

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 13, 2009 2:05 pm

You can add NOGAPS.

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Re: GFS/CMC/ECMWF Show a Low Passing Through S. FL Next Week

#7 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 13, 2009 2:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:You can add NOGAPS.


Added.... interesting how NOGAPs brings this low farther left but develops it farther north...

With the ECMWF on board, I can say the chances of this low happening have increased...
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#8 Postby Bailey1777 » Wed May 13, 2009 2:38 pm

Even if this low materializes if it is of the upper level cold core variety it would take it forever to become tropical at this time of the year, wouldn't it?
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Derek Ortt

#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed May 13, 2009 4:08 pm

not entirely sure this will be tropical... so I am not getting excited yet
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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#10 Postby Ivanhater » Wed May 13, 2009 4:14 pm

Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#11 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 13, 2009 4:22 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend



The NOGAPS doesn't run out that far.


Anyhoo, some reassurance

No boiling cauldrons of water in the GOMEX yet...

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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#12 Postby N2Storms » Wed May 13, 2009 4:35 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend[/quote]


I thought this low was only about 132 - 144 hrs. out....what does NOGAPS look like?
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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#13 Postby Ivanhater » Wed May 13, 2009 4:45 pm

N2Storms wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend



I thought this low was only about 132 - 144 hrs. out....what does NOGAPS look like?


I meant to say right before Memorial Day weekend, but it does seem the NOGAPS keeps it around a while along the beaches of NW Florida...

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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#14 Postby N2Storms » Wed May 13, 2009 4:50 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Ivanhater"]Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend[/quote]


I thought this low was only about 132 - 144 hrs. out....what does NOGAPS look like?[/quote]

I meant to say right before Memorial Day weekend, but it does seem the NOGAPS keeps it around a while along the beaches of NW Florida...

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/2009051312/slp24.png[/img][/quote]


Gotcha...well that does look fairly ominous right now but I'll be shocked if anything closely resembling that were to verify.
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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#15 Postby Ivanhater » Wed May 13, 2009 5:19 pm

Odd set-up, but Nogaps coming in brings it toward North central gulfcoast then pushes south, still coming in...gfs hangs around off SW coast of Florida

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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#16 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 13, 2009 6:46 pm

It's an area to keep an eye on early next week. Prime area for pre-season development of a hybrid sort. Probably a tropical storm threat at most. Better not mess up my Memorial Day weekend!
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#17 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed May 13, 2009 6:58 pm

This is getting really interesting...first a really strong storm
today...and now...next week...a possible tropical system?
WOW...storm-chasing 2009 off to a BANG Baby!!!!!
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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#18 Postby OpieStorm » Wed May 13, 2009 7:12 pm

This would catch my interest more if it were mid July and not mid May. Doubt anything more than rain comes out of this.
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Re: GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC Show Low in Eastern GOM Next Week

#19 Postby AnnularCane » Wed May 13, 2009 7:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:It's an area to keep an eye on early next week. Prime area for pre-season development of a hybrid sort. Probably a tropical storm threat at most. Better not mess up my Memorial Day weekend!



Vacation coming up? Does that mean something's going to develop? :lol:
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Derek Ortt

#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed May 13, 2009 9:38 pm

guys

the models are developing different disturbances. Likely sign of a phantom

I'll watch... but nothing significant

and Memorial Day week-end is not this week-end, it is next week-end. If there is something during the 500... Ortt will be very grumpy indeed
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