Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[gatorcane]

Well, I think its time to start a thread on this. The ECMWF and CMC model have also flirted with the idea of some kind of low developing in the Southern GOM near the Yucatan, or SE GOM then heading NE into Southern Florida ahead of a large trough.

At this time, it should hopefully bring plenty of rain for Southern FL, but I am not expecting any kind of significant development (i.e a Tropical Storm or more).

Then it heads towards the Carolinas beyond that:

[cycloneye]

If CMC is believed,those who live in the Florida Penninsula may have to prepare the shutters. gatorcane,you may want to edit the title.

[gatorcane]

If CMC is believed,those who live in the Florida Penninsula may have to prepare the shutters. gatorcane,you may want to edit the title.

I edited it to show the CMC run -- I think the CMC is too bullish on development. It's also slower in developing the system than the GFS.

[wxman57]

Models (GFS/EC/Canadian) develop a large upper-level low over the area. As is typical, the Canadian develops every upper low that is over the water into a hurricane. The GFS develops a weak cold-core frontal low east of Florida then a weaker short-lived secondary low on the trailing end of the front in the Gulf. Tropical development appears unlikely, but Florida could get some rain.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro just out. For the first time this year, the ECMWF is on board with the GFS with a low

I'm going to bet the NWS offices in Tampa and Miami start to talk about this low.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9051312!!/

[cycloneye]

You can add NOGAPS.

[gatorcane]

You can add NOGAPS.

Added.... interesting how NOGAPs brings this low farther left but develops it farther north...

With the ECMWF on board, I can say the chances of this low happening have increased...

[Bailey1777]

Even if this low materializes if it is of the upper level cold core variety it would take it forever to become tropical at this time of the year, wouldn't it?

[Derek Ortt]

not entirely sure this will be tropical... so I am not getting excited yet

[Ivanhater]

Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend

The NOGAPS doesn't run out that far.


Anyhoo, some reassurance

No boiling cauldrons of water in the GOMEX yet...

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend[/quote]


I thought this low was only about 132 - 144 hrs. out....what does NOGAPS look like?

[Ivanhater]

Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend

I thought this low was only about 132 - 144 hrs. out....what does NOGAPS look like?

I meant to say right before Memorial Day weekend, but it does seem the NOGAPS keeps it around a while along the beaches of NW Florida...

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Ivanhater"]Not liking the looks of the Nogaps, especially around Memorial Day weekend[/quote]


I thought this low was only about 132 - 144 hrs. out....what does NOGAPS look like?[/quote]

I meant to say right before Memorial Day weekend, but it does seem the NOGAPS keeps it around a while along the beaches of NW Florida...

[img]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/2009051312/slp24.png[/img][/quote]


Gotcha...well that does look fairly ominous right now but I'll be shocked if anything closely resembling that were to verify.

[Ivanhater]

Odd set-up, but Nogaps coming in brings it toward North central gulfcoast then pushes south, still coming in...gfs hangs around off SW coast of Florida

[wxman57]

It's an area to keep an eye on early next week. Prime area for pre-season development of a hybrid sort. Probably a tropical storm threat at most. Better not mess up my Memorial Day weekend!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is getting really interesting...first a really strong storm
today...and now...next week...a possible tropical system?
WOW...storm-chasing 2009 off to a BANG Baby!!!!!

[OpieStorm]

This would catch my interest more if it were mid July and not mid May. Doubt anything more than rain comes out of this.

[AnnularCane]

It's an area to keep an eye on early next week. Prime area for pre-season development of a hybrid sort. Probably a tropical storm threat at most. Better not mess up my Memorial Day weekend!

Vacation coming up? Does that mean something's going to develop?

[Derek Ortt]

guys

the models are developing different disturbances. Likely sign of a phantom

I'll watch... but nothing significant

and Memorial Day week-end is not this week-end, it is next week-end. If there is something during the 500... Ortt will be very grumpy indeed