Stormcenter wrote:A hurricane in the GOM in May? I really have to see that to believe it.
None of the models seem to imply the "h" word...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Stormcenter wrote:A hurricane in the GOM in May? I really have to see that to believe it.
None of the models seem to imply the "h" word...
Gulf next week:
Upper air pattern transition will allow a deep trough to develop over the SE US which over time translates SSE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough initially is all cold core…however by the middle to end of next week the GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show the trough cutting off and developing a closed 250mb and 500mb circulation now over the SE Gulf of Mexico…this is still not much cause for concern as this would still be cold core. However, the models sit the system over the warm waters of the SE Gulf and the GFS shows a surface low (1004-1009mb) forming under the 500mb system. In fact the 00Z GFS shows nearly 50kts of NE and E winds on the north side of this system over the northern and central Gulf by the end of next week. The GFS moves the whole mess towards the NW with the surface low moving inland over SE LA next weekend. The rest of the models are showing more northerly tracks and more eastward formations of the upper trough and any surface reflection. For now will go with the potential of a sub-tropical storm (possibly with a name from the 2009 list) somewhere in the region of FL by the end of next week. TX should remain far enough west to only be influenced by the northerly surface flow. The other concern would be the expanding wind field with increasing swell action. Since Hurricane Ike removed nearly all the dune protection and replenishment processes are in their infancy, such long period swells could result in coastal flooding and damage the dune building process. We shall see what transpires…but a warning that hurricane season is upon us once again.
gatorcane wrote:The GFS shows very little shear in the GOM next week. You can see why it is spinning up this system. Also, the shear Derek mentions in the Western Caribbean is reflected in the GFS shear analysis for now:... snip...
Users browsing this forum: 869MB, LarryWx, Stratton23 and 37 guests