Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#141 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 15, 2009 3:34 pm

Stormcenter wrote:A hurricane in the GOM in May? I really have to see that to believe it.



None of the models seem to imply the "h" word...
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Derek Ortt

#142 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 15, 2009 3:40 pm

you can even see the shear on a visible loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
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#143 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 15, 2009 3:59 pm

Guys, we need to be happy if we get a low pressure system. Anything else with the current shear will be a plus. We need the rain, not any wind.
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#144 Postby gatorcane » Fri May 15, 2009 4:00 pm

The GFS shows very little shear in the GOM next week. You can see why it is spinning up this system. Also, the shear Derek mentions in the Western Caribbean is reflected in the GFS shear analysis for now:

Shear now:
Image

Shear Next Week:
Image

Vertical Shear Next Week:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri May 15, 2009 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#145 Postby stormcloud » Fri May 15, 2009 4:02 pm

I lean to the school of thought that if anything develops, it would be more of a sub-tropical system.
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Re: Re:

#146 Postby Stormcenter » Fri May 15, 2009 4:05 pm

i know....I was commenting on another post that said the GOM waters were warm enough to support a hurricane.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:A hurricane in the GOM in May? I really have to see that to believe it.



None of the models seem to imply the "h" word...
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Rainband

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#147 Postby Rainband » Fri May 15, 2009 4:32 pm

There are many areas spinning down there most are at the mid and upper levels. I think derek is right I think IF anything pops it will be ST or Hybrid. I am just wishing for some rain.
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#148 Postby vbhoutex » Fri May 15, 2009 4:46 pm

This is Jeff Lindner's takle othis system. Of course this is written with TX in mind, but he does give his thoughts.

Gulf next week:

Upper air pattern transition will allow a deep trough to develop over the SE US which over time translates SSE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough initially is all cold core…however by the middle to end of next week the GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show the trough cutting off and developing a closed 250mb and 500mb circulation now over the SE Gulf of Mexico…this is still not much cause for concern as this would still be cold core. However, the models sit the system over the warm waters of the SE Gulf and the GFS shows a surface low (1004-1009mb) forming under the 500mb system. In fact the 00Z GFS shows nearly 50kts of NE and E winds on the north side of this system over the northern and central Gulf by the end of next week. The GFS moves the whole mess towards the NW with the surface low moving inland over SE LA next weekend. The rest of the models are showing more northerly tracks and more eastward formations of the upper trough and any surface reflection. For now will go with the potential of a sub-tropical storm (possibly with a name from the 2009 list) somewhere in the region of FL by the end of next week. TX should remain far enough west to only be influenced by the northerly surface flow. The other concern would be the expanding wind field with increasing swell action. Since Hurricane Ike removed nearly all the dune protection and replenishment processes are in their infancy, such long period swells could result in coastal flooding and damage the dune building process. We shall see what transpires…but a warning that hurricane season is upon us once again.
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#149 Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 15, 2009 4:47 pm

LIX AFD snipet tends to agree with Stormcloud & Derek. :wink:

.LONG TERM...

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A
BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO BUILD IN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

WHILE THIS RIDGING DOMINATES THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...A CUT OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DEPICT THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE
ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME TYPE OF COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
LOW REMAINS STATIONARY...A SURFACE REFLECTION MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AGAIN...THERE ARE GREAT DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
THEN DEPICT A NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...HAVE WENT WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get ... n=0&max=11
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#150 Postby Rainband » Fri May 15, 2009 4:49 pm

well someone should get some much needed rain that's good news. :D
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#151 Postby Cookie » Fri May 15, 2009 5:22 pm

Its amazing how interesting reading these post have been about this possible disturbance
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#152 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri May 15, 2009 5:23 pm

hehe... Hi everyone !!

I see we have some interesting models runs! all models showing some form of a low pressure forming at the surface underneath a upper low. also most of them have the system as warm core and under low enough shear to possibly see something. ssts are warm enough but very shallow throughout the eastern gulf right now with the exception of the gulf loop of course and IF anything were to get going its position over the loop would give it the best chance. it is interesting to see the models in fair agreement so early on even on intensity with of course the CMC which brings it to 990 mb, and although the cmc in the past has been a little iffy i have read that they found a bug in the code ( actually a sign problem lol ) that may have lead to some issues last year, so it will be interesting to see how that handles this year.

All i can say for now is that until the trough develops over the SGM we should take if all with stride and wait to see what happens over the next couple days.
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#153 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri May 15, 2009 5:29 pm

actually take a look at the 12z ECMWF at

96 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

and then all the way out to 168 !!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

slow moving according it..
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#154 Postby mikef55 » Fri May 15, 2009 5:30 pm

HEY EVERYBODY!!!! Hope everyone had a nice off season and here we go yet again. I am fairly surprised at the fact that so many models appear to be in agreement on development in the GOM next week and the bullishness as well. I agree with Mr. Dunn have to sit tight till that trough develops and if the feature goes over from cold core to tropical. REally excited to see how this plays out next week. Excited to be back. :D
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#155 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri May 15, 2009 5:33 pm

***The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

I think there could be a moderate subtropical storm over the central
gulf based on models and the cold core low persisting and warming and
the shear expected to drop.
The wind field would be large, with squalls containing 30-45 mph
winds sweeping across FL, and possibly working westward
over LA as the week continues.

Given May's reputation for high shear, I give it a 20% chance, which for May,
is very high.

Another member mentioned earlier the Farmer's Almanac stating a FL
storm around May...Interesting...

Between the Future Gulf Low and the Central North Atlantic Low,
Hurricane Season 2009 might be here :eek:
I think one of the two lows should easily become Ana.
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Re:

#156 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 15, 2009 5:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS shows very little shear in the GOM next week. You can see why it is spinning up this system. Also, the shear Derek mentions in the Western Caribbean is reflected in the GFS shear analysis for now:... snip...


That's true, gatorcane. Not much shear because we have a vertically-stacked low pressure system across the area. Cold core all the way up. And there will be considerable cold air advection in the lower levels feeding into any surface low. These kind of systems could make it rough offshore, but it would take quite a while for any tropical transition to occur, if ever. I see the models keep delaying development today, too, by the way. Euro is way later than the GFS and Canadian now.
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#157 Postby KWT » Fri May 15, 2009 6:18 pm

Yep indeed would take a while for anything to become even slightly tropical but given it can move slowly enough things could get interesting, will have to wait and see.
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#158 Postby deltadog03 » Fri May 15, 2009 10:10 pm

I would love some rain here in florida for sure.
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#159 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri May 15, 2009 10:34 pm

The local ABC met here completely flopped and is now saying no Low, but rather a strong cold front deep into Florida.
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Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#160 Postby Downdraft » Fri May 15, 2009 10:59 pm

Warm core or cold core it wouldn't matter to anyone in Florida right now. We have plenty of retention capacity at the moment since we seem to be slowly turning into a desert here.
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