Possible Subtropical Development in the North Atlantic

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 15, 2009 10:58 am

Models expect this system to hang around for the next several days, which may allow the system to become subtropical. Ana, if you're there, knock twice!!!

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 15, 2009 10:59 am

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 15, 2009 11:06 am

Minds think alike about this as I posted about it but you already had it posted by one minute.

As I haved been posting in the long/Medium range models thread,all of them are showing this for the past few days.Lets see what happens if it hangs around enough for a transition to warm core.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

cpdaman · #4 Postby **cpdaman** » Fri May 15, 2009 11:46 am

which way is this little beast supposed to move in the short term? stationary?

(and yes i realize it is not supposed to charge the coast)

#5 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri May 15, 2009 12:13 pm

SSTs look to be 23 to 25C. That could be enough to get something subtropical.

If it meanders we might get 90L out of it.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 15, 2009 12:34 pm

#7 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri May 15, 2009 3:52 pm

#8 Postby **Cookie** » Fri May 15, 2009 5:26 pm

is this the same system as in the other thread? :double:

#9 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri May 15, 2009 5:28 pm

Cookie wrote:is this the same system as in the other thread?

No.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #10 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri May 15, 2009 5:38 pm

Cookie wrote:is this the same system as in the other thread?

This system is way out over the Atlantic Ocean...but the other thread
concerns a future low in the Gulf of Mexico. Getting busy out there! :eek:

This system looks to be acquiring a defined circulation- I bet 40% this gets a
name as a subtropical system.

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 15, 2009 5:51 pm

All the images:

#12 Postby **Cookie** » Fri May 15, 2009 6:12 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
Cookie wrote:is this the same system as in the other thread?

This system is way out over the Atlantic Ocean...but the other thread
concerns a future low in the Gulf of Mexico. Getting busy out there!

This system looks to be acquiring a defined circulation- I bet 40% this gets a
name as a subtropical system.

sorry my fault. its late on a friday night ( well thats my excuse)

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #13 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri May 15, 2009 6:13 pm

No problem :ggreen:

This low LOOKS really well defined. Still cold core though.

#14 Postby **Cookie** » Fri May 15, 2009 6:19 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:No problem
This low LOOKS really well defined. Still cold core though.

sorry an amateur question but with this being further north then the other why do you think this one has better chance of development then the other one? wouldn't the waters be a lot more colder then the one near the GOM?

KWT · #15 Postby **KWT** » Fri May 15, 2009 6:21 pm

This one does look quite curious, whilst it is still extratropical its in an area where 2003's Ana formed.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 15, 2009 6:35 pm

Cookie wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:No problem
This low LOOKS really well defined. Still cold core though.

sorry an amateur question but with this being further north then the other why do you think this one has better chance of development then the other one? wouldn't the waters be a lot more colder then the one near the GOM?

Temps are OK for subtropical transition but unless it moves a lot south, they are still cold for a tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, Epsilon, a system of non-tropical origens, thrived over colder waters. Each system is unique in its own way.

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 15, 2009 6:38 pm

#18 Postby **WeatherLovingDoc** » Fri May 15, 2009 8:15 pm

Amazing. Earliest northern development I've ever begun to follow. Thanks Storm2k.

#19 Postby **NDG** » Fri May 15, 2009 8:57 pm

I don't give it much chance for this system to develop into a subtropical storms, is clearly extra-tropical with a long way to go, with SSTs only in the low 70s where it is right now, it will have a tough time to acquire subtropical charecteristics unless it moves a bit further south, the latest gfs keeps it as a cold core system with the surface low pressure dying out eventually in a few days.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #20 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri May 15, 2009 10:26 pm

Well this just looks more organized IMO...but yea the low is still really cold
core

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