Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ed Mahmoud

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#161 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri May 15, 2009 11:43 pm

New GFS doesn't seen overly impressed.



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloop.html
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#162 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 16, 2009 1:11 am

Canadian not blown away anymore either, and that is saying something...


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#163 Postby AdamFirst » Sat May 16, 2009 1:35 am

I'll take a peddling weak rainstorm and gray day over nothing. We need the rain down here badly, that's all that matters at this point.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#164 Postby ROCK » Sat May 16, 2009 1:54 am

models doing a about face I see...it is May after all and I see some mighty shear out there now over the GOM...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

nice little map to reference on potential....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4825
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#165 Postby ronjon » Sat May 16, 2009 4:31 am

Model consensus seems to be heading toward development in the NW caribbean, Yuc straits, or off western tip of Cuba now - the Euro idea - and then moving N or NW into the GOM. So, with a further southward origin, the prospect for a tropical system does increase - still think some sort of sub-tropical low. All the models show a closed circulation with low pressure between 1005 and 1010 mb - not a strong system by any means but could be a slow sloppy broad circulation that pumps lots of moisture into rain starved FL. Strong high pressure off the east coast and low pressure to the south will increase the pressure gradient over the FL peninsula by mid-week making it very windy. Here is the 00Z UKMET - very similar to the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2009051600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#166 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 16, 2009 5:57 am

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#167 Postby gatorcane » Sat May 16, 2009 8:28 am

00Z GFS, EGOM towards FL Panhandle, relatively weak system but with alot of rain for FL:

Image
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#168 Postby jinftl » Sat May 16, 2009 8:58 am

NWS Miami mentions possible development of surface low in latest Discussion:

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FUZZY AND DIFFICULT AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS DIVES INTO
THE GULF WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS IN CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTS OFF IN THE
CENTRAL OR EAST GULF WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANEL. THE INVERTED
TROUGH MAY THEN BECOME MORE DEFINED AND POSSIBLY SPIN UP A SURFACE
LOW. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE IS A HUGE
QUESTION MARK
, BUT AT ANY RATE IT DOES APPEAR THAT A LARGE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF,
FLORIDA, AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145643
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#169 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2009 9:56 am

The 12z NAM at 84 hours turns more bullish than in past runs.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#170 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat May 16, 2009 10:12 am

I don't think a lot of people in Florida will care (or even know lol) if this is warm core or cold core, but as long as we get the rain we need, we will be happy.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#171 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 16, 2009 11:01 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:I don't think a lot of people in Florida will care (or even know lol) if this is warm core or cold core, but as long as we get the rain we need, we will be happy.


I agree. We need the rain as much as finding another viable renewable energy source. Still, a little tropical action to kick start the season wouldn't be unappreciated!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
T-man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:57 am
Location: Lafitte, LA

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#172 Postby T-man » Sat May 16, 2009 11:15 am

I hope all of you Floridians get your wish, and plenty of tropical moisture falls on your fair state. We seem to be in our customary summertime pattern of afternoon showers here in South LA. We don't really need a lot of rain, but since it has been spotty in the area, an overall douche wouldn't hurt. :P
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145643
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#173 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2009 11:23 am

12z GFS is more stronger than the 00z and 06z runs.

120 hours

Image

144 hours

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#174 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat May 16, 2009 11:30 am

That GFS/NAM look very interesting for tropical development
over the next 72-96+ hours


Convection with spin just south of Cuba:
Could this be what the models develop?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

You can see the elongated trough producing a moderate
band of convection from off the coast of SW FL (SE GOM)
to the Caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#175 Postby Vortex » Sat May 16, 2009 12:01 pm

After a complete analysis of the short-medium range models,vapor imagery, and hi-res imagery I'm now inclined to give a semi-confident forecast.

I expect low pressure to spawn late Monday/Tuesday somewhere in the vicinity of Western Cuba(Far NW carribean/FL straits). Given the expected environmental conditions this will be a subtropical type system/storm. Other than not being completly warm core the impacts will be the same as if a Tropical storm from the standpoint of a significant tropical rain event and gales upwards of 50+mph in squalls mostly east of the center. This "low" along the eastern portion will act as a water pump delivering copious amounts of rainfall to the FL Keys, Southern Fl, and the Western Bahamas beginning late Monday until at least late Wednesday. The duration of problematic rainfall will be extended. Training(cells moving over the same area) may become a big concern especially given the expected slow motion of the system and deep rich carribean moisture being drawn north on the S/SSE flow. The keys and coastal south florida especially stand the highest risk of training at this point given the expected set-up. With decent ridging to the north a slow N/NNW motion will be expected withe periods of little motion. As the low pressure deepens modestly along with ridging North of the system a decent gradient will set-up. Those areas first impacted which will include the FL keys, southern/central FL and the western bahamas should expect a steady 15-25 mph windfield with gusts in squalls exceeding 40+ especially later Tuesday into Wednesday. The FLOOD THREATmay become quite a concern. I'm expectING general 5-10" of rain during this event for the areas mentioned above with localized amounts of up to or exceeding 15". More later as additional information comes in and I will also update the other areas to be impacted late in the week/weekend which may include the Big Bend of FL, Florida Panhandle and west to the LA/Mississippi border.

*This is strictly my personal opinion and not a forecast.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#176 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 16, 2009 12:01 pm

Again, a weak 250 mb (and 200 and 300 mb) low aloft, so it is low shear, (I assume, FSU hasn't loaded the 12Z run) but it is still cold core aloft at 144 hours.


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145643
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#177 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2009 12:16 pm

Oh CMC! stop please!

Image

Image
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#178 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 16, 2009 12:20 pm

:uarrow: CMC apparently does develop a tropical system, as seen by steady strengthening until landfall, and then weakening.


As noted by many others, any mid-level cold core system over warm water quickly feeds back into a tropical cyclone on the Canadian.


Not entirely a bad thing, the CMC, while wrong 95% of the time, usually is the first model to predict development of systems of less than purely tropical origin.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#179 Postby jinftl » Sat May 16, 2009 12:20 pm

So it's not just one model indicating some type of development now? Is that the trend of the latest model runs overall....a bit more bullish scenario?

Water temps wouldn't be an issue in terms of inhibiting development....just one factor, but the 80+ water is in place
Image

Image
Last edited by jinftl on Sat May 16, 2009 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145643
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Models Develop a Disturbance in the GOM Late Next Week

#180 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2009 12:29 pm

12z UKMET also turns bullish

Wow,when you see UKMET doing this,it will happen.This model is the most conservative one.

Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, Google Adsense [Bot], islandgirl45, LarryWx, Stratton23 and 36 guests