Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFS doesn't seen overly impressed.



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloop.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian not blown away anymore either, and that is saying something...

[AdamFirst]

I'll take a peddling weak rainstorm and gray day over nothing. We need the rain down here badly, that's all that matters at this point.

[ROCK]

models doing a about face I see...it is May after all and I see some mighty shear out there now over the GOM...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

nice little map to reference on potential....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ronjon]

Model consensus seems to be heading toward development in the NW caribbean, Yuc straits, or off western tip of Cuba now - the Euro idea - and then moving N or NW into the GOM. So, with a further southward origin, the prospect for a tropical system does increase - still think some sort of sub-tropical low. All the models show a closed circulation with low pressure between 1005 and 1010 mb - not a strong system by any means but could be a slow sloppy broad circulation that pumps lots of moisture into rain starved FL. Strong high pressure off the east coast and low pressure to the south will increase the pressure gradient over the FL peninsula by mid-week making it very windy. Here is the 00Z UKMET - very similar to the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2009051600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS, EGOM towards FL Panhandle, relatively weak system but with alot of rain for FL:

[jinftl]

NWS Miami mentions possible development of surface low in latest Discussion:

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FUZZY AND DIFFICULT AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS DIVES INTO
THE GULF WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS IN CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE CUTS OFF IN THE
CENTRAL OR EAST GULF WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANEL. THE INVERTED
TROUGH MAY THEN BECOME MORE DEFINED AND POSSIBLY SPIN UP A SURFACE
LOW. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE IS A HUGE
QUESTION MARK, BUT AT ANY RATE IT DOES APPEAR THAT A LARGE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF,
FLORIDA, AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

[cycloneye]

The 12z NAM at 84 hours turns more bullish than in past runs.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't think a lot of people in Florida will care (or even know lol) if this is warm core or cold core, but as long as we get the rain we need, we will be happy.

[HURAKAN]

I don't think a lot of people in Florida will care (or even know lol) if this is warm core or cold core, but as long as we get the rain we need, we will be happy.

I agree. We need the rain as much as finding another viable renewable energy source. Still, a little tropical action to kick start the season wouldn't be unappreciated!!!

[T-man]

I hope all of you Floridians get your wish, and plenty of tropical moisture falls on your fair state. We seem to be in our customary summertime pattern of afternoon showers here in South LA. We don't really need a lot of rain, but since it has been spotty in the area, an overall douche wouldn't hurt.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is more stronger than the 00z and 06z runs.

120 hours



144 hours

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That GFS/NAM look very interesting for tropical development
over the next 72-96+ hours


Convection with spin just south of Cuba:
Could this be what the models develop?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

You can see the elongated trough producing a moderate
band of convection from off the coast of SW FL (SE GOM)
to the Caribbean.

[Vortex]

After a complete analysis of the short-medium range models,vapor imagery, and hi-res imagery I'm now inclined to give a semi-confident forecast.

I expect low pressure to spawn late Monday/Tuesday somewhere in the vicinity of Western Cuba(Far NW carribean/FL straits). Given the expected environmental conditions this will be a subtropical type system/storm. Other than not being completly warm core the impacts will be the same as if a Tropical storm from the standpoint of a significant tropical rain event and gales upwards of 50+mph in squalls mostly east of the center. This "low" along the eastern portion will act as a water pump delivering copious amounts of rainfall to the FL Keys, Southern Fl, and the Western Bahamas beginning late Monday until at least late Wednesday. The duration of problematic rainfall will be extended. Training(cells moving over the same area) may become a big concern especially given the expected slow motion of the system and deep rich carribean moisture being drawn north on the S/SSE flow. The keys and coastal south florida especially stand the highest risk of training at this point given the expected set-up. With decent ridging to the north a slow N/NNW motion will be expected withe periods of little motion. As the low pressure deepens modestly along with ridging North of the system a decent gradient will set-up. Those areas first impacted which will include the FL keys, southern/central FL and the western bahamas should expect a steady 15-25 mph windfield with gusts in squalls exceeding 40+ especially later Tuesday into Wednesday. The FLOOD THREATmay become quite a concern. I'm expectING general 5-10" of rain during this event for the areas mentioned above with localized amounts of up to or exceeding 15". More later as additional information comes in and I will also update the other areas to be impacted late in the week/weekend which may include the Big Bend of FL, Florida Panhandle and west to the LA/Mississippi border.

*This is strictly my personal opinion and not a forecast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Again, a weak 250 mb (and 200 and 300 mb) low aloft, so it is low shear, (I assume, FSU hasn't loaded the 12Z run) but it is still cold core aloft at 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

Oh CMC! stop please!

[Ed Mahmoud]

CMC apparently does develop a tropical system, as seen by steady strengthening until landfall, and then weakening.


As noted by many others, any mid-level cold core system over warm water quickly feeds back into a tropical cyclone on the Canadian.


Not entirely a bad thing, the CMC, while wrong 95% of the time, usually is the first model to predict development of systems of less than purely tropical origin.

[jinftl]

So it's not just one model indicating some type of development now? Is that the trend of the latest model runs overall....a bit more bullish scenario?

Water temps wouldn't be an issue in terms of inhibiting development....just one factor, but the 80+ water is in place

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET also turns bullish

Wow,when you see UKMET doing this,it will happen.This model is the most conservative one.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation