GOM: INVEST 90L

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Bound to get interesting.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The SE Gulf Low is the one bringing the very heavy
rain to FL now, in conjunction with the front.
It is starting to get windy here, especially
due to pressure gradient.
Gulf Low has much better concentrated
convection IMO.

[jaxfladude]

The eastern parts including the beaches of the Jax Metro area is getting wet and windy, and will only get worse as the system(s) do their thing...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Saint Petersburg
Windy
NE 23 G 29 MPH
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=153

St. Augustine Airport- gusting close to Gale Force
NE 28 G 36 MPH
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 28&map.y=8

[Cyclone1]

Wow. Invest. o_O

This was enough to bring me back from that mini-hiatus I was on. It's been raining all day here. It's nice, I gotta say.

[Aric Dunn]

I have been doing some estimates on timing.. from what i found over the last few hours is that the gulf low or the area that wil eventually organize is moving faster than the models have shown and is approaching the west coast of florida already. this is important because at this rate the gulf low will be SE or ESE of S florida by morning make the situation even more complex.. watch very closely the speed of the gulf low !! i'll keep posting as it changes.. and wow getting hit right now by winds over 40 mph heavy rain ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

watch the live weather stations from my area.. hehe

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ct=WEATHER

winds are kicking up here in N central florida pressure gradient tightening must mean the low is deepening a little..

[wxman57]

I've been out of touch all day, speaking at a media event in Baton Rouge. Just taking a look at things, I don't see anything where NHC Has the invest up. Straight SE flow. No evidence of an LLC and pressures relatively high. I DO see turning in the SE Gulf along the cold front, however any low there is just a frontal wave at this point. Better chance of the western area developing than the eastern area, I would think. But it won't be tropical, at least for a few days. Considerable cold air advection into the eastern Gulf now.

[Aric Dunn]

I've been out of touch all day, speaking at a media event in Baton Rouge. Just taking a look at things, I don't see anything where NHC Has the invest up. Straight SE flow. No evidence of an LLC and pressures relatively high. I DO see turning in the SE Gulf along the cold front, however any low there is just a frontal wave at this point. Better chance of the western area developing than the eastern area, I would think. But it won't be tropical, at least for a few days. Considerable cold air advection into the eastern Gulf now.

look closer there there big cheese..

do agree on the western area though ..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Feels more like a cold front right now. It'll probably take until
Wednesday morning to transition if it does so (the low, extra- to
subtropical if it does that).

Gettin windy here in Da Burg Baby!!! (Saint Petersburg)
Okay not THAT windy just 20 mph gusts 30 mph but still
nice and cool.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL

292
WHXX04 KWBC 182325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.8 76.0 360./11.1
6 22.1 76.4 311./ 5.0
12 22.8 75.9 35./ 8.2
18 23.9 75.4 25./12.1
24 24.8 74.6 40./12.0
30 25.5 74.4 14./ 6.9
36 26.6 74.6 352./10.9
42 27.6 75.5 318./12.9
48 28.4 77.4 292./18.6
54 28.5 79.2 276./16.3
60 28.8 80.9 277./14.7
66 28.7 82.7 267./15.9
72 28.5 83.8 263./ 9.8
78 28.5 84.9 271./ 9.4
84 28.6 85.8 277./ 7.9
90 29.0 86.3 307./ 5.7
96 29.5 86.6 324./ 5.8
102 30.2 87.2 322./ 8.7
108 30.8 87.8 308./ 7.7
114 31.3 88.4 313./ 7.1
120 31.9 88.8 330./ 7.4
126 32.5 89.2 329./ 6.8

[Cookie]

Feels more like a cold front right now. It'll probably take until
Wednesday morning to transition if it does so (the low, extra- to
subtropical if it does that).

Gettin windy here in Da Burg Baby!!! (Saint Petersburg)
Okay not THAT windy just 20 mph gusts 30 mph but still
nice and cool.

try the west coast of scotland had winds of 75 mph this month,

[cycloneye]

GFDL is quite bullish.

[ronjon]

Yes the GOM low is starting to wind up - this system will be big (think nor'easter in the GOM). Anytime these low pressure systems get stacked, they really dominate the flow over a large area. The definition of whether this storm is extratropical or subtropical is really semantics - the effects will be the same. Ask KWT or Cookie about the major N Atlantic storms - some with extremely low pressures. I'm not trying to hype this storm more than it needs to be but think of a very large tropical storm - with gales extending hundreds of miles from the center. What separates this storm from others is the intense upper level energy that will be supporting low pressure at the surface - highly unusual at such a low latitude this time of year.

[HURAKAN]

Until a well-defined LLC develops, all these is for entertainment purposes.

[Cookie]

Yes the GOM low is starting to wind up - this system will be big (think nor'easter in the GOM). Anytime these low pressure systems get stacked, they really dominate the flow over a large area. The definition of whether this storm is extratropical or subtropical is really semantics - the effects will be the same. Ask KWT or Cookie about the major N Atlantic storms - some with extremely low pressures. I'm not trying to hype this storm more than it needs to be but think of a very large tropical storm - with gales extending hundreds of miles from the center. What separates this storm from others is the intense upper level energy that will be supporting low pressure at the surface - highly unusual at such a low latitude this time of year.

sorry to go off topic slightly but the deepest low to hit west coast scotland since I was living here with winds of 120 mph in the western isles and 140 on north rhona in January 2005, at its deepest the low was 942 mb, which is pretty low for up here.

[cycloneye]

00
ABNT20 KNHC 182335
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
SPECIAL OUTLOOK REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2335.shtml

[wxman57]

Quite a few surface obs in the area - there is no "weak surface low". I see straight SE flow from the DR to southern FL. Any circulation is aloft in the mid levels.

[cpdaman]

hasn't rained too much at my house today..(extreme SE palm beach county) ..but just put the gauge out and looks like some decent storms over the water.....i think i'm good for 4 inches easy (in the next 36-48 hours)

this is a small weak surface low (apparently) .....and i don't more than 1 obs. within 50 miles of it's center