GOM: INVEST 90L

[KWT]

Looks like shear has eased off just a little bit again as convection seems to be flaring up closer to the center. I don't think this is totally cold cored anymore given the apperence BUT its impossible to know without recon really, I'd punt though that this may well be a subtropical system, whether or not its enough to call it a STC I don't know yet.

Also remember with a cold cored ULL nearby, the upper air temps will be lower with it which means whilst SST's are lowering the lapse rates may still be high enough for shallow convection to keep building even as it gets closer to the shelf waters.

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

We're getting a nasty cell right now.

[Bailey1777]

Times just not on it's side but enjoy the rain to those of you who need it.

[HURAKAN]

[DanKellFla]

This storm is like the little train that could, "I think I can, I think I can...." But this storm just isn't going to make it over the hill. But, all the rain was very welcome.

[HURAKAN]

Lets not forget about the famous TD 10 (2007):

[Rainband]

In parts of the "sunshine state"...using that term loosely, it's wettest May on record, either way this thing made history wether it's named or not.

[TropicalWXMA]

Main circulation is now underneath a pretty good blow up of convection!



Clearly visible on this loop:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... LAY=Single

[xironman]

Still looks like a NNE drift, appears to be sneaking under the convection on that side.



Edit: Hey WXMA, hit the reply button with the same observation

[cycloneye]

This shot is losing daylight but still you can see the convection now over the circulation.

[TropicalWXMA]

Hm, it appears that my post came first so, maybe you should've done that. Just saying.

Hopefully 90L can grow a LITTLE bit before having to deal with the land and losing some of it's Gulf water energy!!

Still looks like a NNE drift, appears to be sneaking under the convection on that side.



Edit: Hey WXMA, hit the reply button with the same observation

[tolakram]

Looking more and more tropical.



Can't resist the MODIS closeup from earlier today.




Buoy data:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039



Temps rising as pressure falls.

[Dionne]

Winds out of the east since last night. Several squall lines.....winds to around 30 mph.....reports vary. Rain on and off all day. A soaking rain. No severe weather. No local flooding. 100% in the forecast for substantial rain in the near future.

It is a bit strange seeing the clouds rolling in out of the east this early in the season. They look exactly like the clouds that say something is happening in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

NHC Increases probability of TD forming

005
ABNT20 KNHC 222345
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tolakram]

First orange juice of the year.

Looks like we're going to get heavy rains out of this mid week.

[cycloneye]

By what NHC says in that recent outlook,it may be fully tropical instead of Sub?

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile NWS AFD says that the low is warming, albeit slowly.......

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...INSITU TEMPERATURES SHOWN IN UPPER
AIR CHARTS ANALYZED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATES AN OVERALL
WARMING OF THE MEAN TEMPERATURE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW OF ABOUT
3 DEGREES CELSIUS. WE OBSERVED THIS AS FOLLOWS:

850 MB 700 MB 500 MB:

TUESDAY EVENING 13 C 4 C -11 C
WEDNESDAY MORNING 14 C 6 C -11 C
THURSDAY EVENING 15 C 7 C -9 C
THIS MORNING (FRI) 16 C 7 C -8 C

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 3 DEGREES IN 60 HOURS OR SO DOES NOT INDICATE
NECESSARILY THAT THIS LOW IS IN ANY HURRY TO TRANSITION.

[wx247]

Action getting an early start here. Just happened to be watching TWC when they mentioned the new statement. Hmmm... will be reading everyone's thoughts!

[tolakram]

Water temps near the center have dropped a lot since a couple of days ago.



Air temps continue to rise.