GOM: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 230038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC SAT MAY 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090523 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090523 0000 090523 1200 090524 0000 090524 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.7N 87.8W 29.1N 88.5W 30.6N 89.0W 32.1N 89.5W
BAMD 27.7N 87.8W 29.2N 88.2W 31.1N 89.1W 32.8N 90.2W
BAMM 27.7N 87.8W 29.0N 88.4W 30.6N 89.0W 32.1N 89.7W
LBAR 27.7N 87.8W 29.1N 88.1W 30.7N 88.2W 32.4N 88.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090525 0000 090526 0000 090527 0000 090528 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.4N 89.9W 35.7N 91.2W 38.1N 91.5W 40.2N 89.7W
BAMD 34.1N 91.5W 36.6N 93.7W 39.8N 94.6W 42.6N 92.7W
BAMM 33.4N 90.6W 35.5N 92.4W 38.0N 93.0W 40.4N 90.5W
LBAR 34.1N 88.4W 37.1N 86.6W 38.9N 81.8W 40.1N 73.6W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.7N LONCUR = 87.8W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 26.6N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 347DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 25.8N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

In my opinion, that is TD1.

With all the early and late activity, is it time to abolish "hurricane season"?

[Plant grower]

Looks like a TD smells like a TD yes it's a TD to me. Welcome to hurricane season 09 everyone

[JTE50]

Here's a couple of video stills as the heavy squall line from that Low hit the beach here in Pensacola. Taken around 2:20 CDT.

http://www.extremestorms.com/storm3.jpg
http://www.extremestorms.com/storm1.jpg

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

Convection really firing up in the north-central gulf - looks like the transition to tropical may occur tonight. Hard to tell where the center is now - may be just to the SW of the eastern convective blob.

[Dean4Storms]

Some rotating heavy Convection SSW of P'Cola on long range radar......


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Bailey1777]

She's huffing and puffing and the way the NHC plays it close to the vest I now imagine it will be classified. Truth is name or no name tropical or sub-tropical the effects are going to be the same alot of rain and a little wind. I give the girl credit she's not throwing in the towel!

[jinftl]

System has already been a killer....not a good start to the season for those who are most vulnerable...

The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1227

[Dean4Storms]

Has all the looks tonight of trying to go tropical, the question now becomes can it sustain the convection overnight and will it run out of room before landfall. At most I can't see it getting much above minimum TS strength, more rain than anything with maybe the possibility of a few Waterspouts moving ashore tomorrow.

[tolakram]

Water close to shore (Gulf Shores) is still fairly warm.



Very shallow, of course.

[jinftl]

Persistent onshore flow could lead to some minor flooding in coastal LA and MS

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
133 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

ORLEANS-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-
HANCOCK-

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY....

MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS MAY OCCUR IN HANCOCK COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI...AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES FROM NEAR LAKE CATHERINE
AND LAKE BORGNE...TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

[CrazyC83]

22/2315 UTC 27.9N 87.7W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

System has already been a killer....not a good start to the season for those who are most vulnerable...

The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1227

And the season hasn't (officially) even started yet!

[Frank P]

Hard to tell exactly where the center is on radar, SSW of Pensacola seems reasonable, but the overall radar presentation of the storm cells indicate its not moving very fast. We had a decent cell move thru Biloxi around 6:00 pm tonight, otherwise pretty quiet on the beach. Good thing its' not August... would not be surprised for this to make TD tomorrow if it could slow down just a tad prior to going inland...

[SunnyThoughts]

Im driving from Pensacola to Biloxi tomorrow, sure not looking forward to THAT drive now.. Everybody along the coast stay dry and safe.

[Bailey1777]

somebody remind me what does a heading of 345 degrees mean?

[HURAKAN]

somebody remind me what does a heading of 345 degrees mean?

[MGC]

If convection continues to increase near the center tonight than it is quite possible that this system gets classified tomorrow by the NHC. This low has really become better organized since this morning. I don't want to wake up to TS warning.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

If convection continues to increase near the center tonight than it is quite possible that this system gets classified tomorrow by the NHC. This low has really become better organized since this morning. I don't want to wake up to TS warning.....MGC

Fortunately the effects are not going to be much different.