Possible subtropical development on EC

[xironman]

Looking at the current convection on in the Bahamas



There is divergence



As well as convergence



And shear gets better



Along with the model support from the models thread

CMC


NOGAP


GFS


Any hope?

[Cyclone1]

Maybe something to keep an eye on.

[jinftl]

Would it automatically be subtropical....by that i mean, what factors would suggest subtropical vs tropical development in that area....if anything were to develop (this system or any other at this time for that matter)?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS shows the low pressure.

[xironman]

Subtropical vs. tropical? Climatology mainly, there must be a non-tropical trigger to cause the models to react this way at this time of year.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/65.html

[HURAKAN]

The GFS keep it as a weak low pressure system.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is unimpressed at the moment. Good night!

[Category 5]

[HURAKAN]

Hold it!

[HURAKAN]

"An area of disturbed weather is located over the Bahamas associated with a broad surface trough of low pressure extending from the Florida Peninsula to Hispaniola. This activity is being further enhanced by upper diffluent flow on the right flank of the negatively-tilted upper trough associated with 90L. The GFS, CMC and ECMWF models develop an area of low pressure by tomorrow and take it towards the north or slightly east thereof due to a ridge building across the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures remain warm the along the trajectory due the Gulf Stream, vertical wind shear is expected to relax and it is expected to be a moderate warm-core system. However, I would like to see more model support. Based on this, the area will be monitored for development."

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Slight chance, but no major threat. Maybe a bit of rain for coastal NC in a few days.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

A mid-level or upper-level low appears to be developing in the area circled based on satellite images.

[jinftl]

impressive blob...persistence will be key to any potential organization

also nice to see the sun again in florida

[cycloneye]

Warm core if GFS is right.

[HURAKAN]

Close-up

[cycloneye]

You can see clearly the spin and the developing clouds over it.

[xironman]

It needs to hang out for a couple of days for the winds to improve, but by then it probably would be over less than marginal water